Hillary Clinton Widens Lead Over Donald Trump in Battleground States
Democratic nominee gains ground in Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina; maintains advantage in Florida
Hillary Clinton has been strategically flooding swing state airwaves all summer, while Donald Trump has yet to spend a dollar on television ads. WSJ's Shelby Holliday explains how the advertising battlegrounds are shifting.
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is opening a wider lead in three battleground states, while maintaining an advantage over Republican rival Donald Trump in Florida, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll has found.
In Colorado, Mrs. Clinton leads Mr. Trump by 14 percentage points, 46% to 32%—six points more than a poll taken in July before the two parties held their national conventions.
Mrs. Clinton also gained some ground in two Southern battleground states: Virginia, where she leads 46% to 33%, and North Carolina, where she is ahead 48% to 39%.
In Florida, one of the most important states this fall with its 29 Electoral College votes, the race is tighter. Mrs. Clinton’s support stands at 44%, compared with 39% for Mr. Trump, which is a slight improvement in his position from a month ago, when the poll had him trailing 2 points further behind.
Still, even winning Florida in November wouldn’t help Mr. Trump if his fortunes don’t improve in the other battlegrounds. North Carolina is a state that Mitt Romney won in 2012, and Colorado and Virginia have been trending Democratic in presidential elections. Democrats’ position in Virginia is also likely enhanced by Mrs. Clinton’s selection of the state’s popular junior senator, Tim Kaine, to be her running mate.
“These are supposed to be battleground states, but right now, they don’t look that way,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Trump still needs to unify Republicans and better position himself among traditional GOP groups in order to make the contest competitive in these must-win states.”
The results reinforce the findings of other national and battleground-state polls taken in the past two weeks: In the wake of the two parties’ conventions and amid a series of setbacks for the Trump campaign, Mrs. Clinton has consolidated her base and widened her lead on a number of fronts.
The survey was done Aug. 4-10, a period when Mr. Trump was feuding with fellow Republicans—including House Speaker Paul Ryan—and with the Muslim-American family of a fallen U.S. soldier.
Mr. Trump showed some resilience in overcoming rough patches in the Republican primary. But it is unclear whether the broader general-election electorate will be as tolerant of his confrontational style as the core GOP constituency that won him the party’s nomination.
Mrs. Clinton also continues to hold a strong position in all four states when the field of choices is broadened to include Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In a four-way race, Mrs. Clinton draws more than 40% of the vote in all four states. In two, Colorado and Virginia, Mr. Johnson breaks into the double digits.
The poll also found that voters in all four states continue to have unfavorable impressions of both major-party nominees. For Mrs. Clinton, her negative ratings range from 52%, in Florida, to 59%, in Colorado. Mr. Trump’s negative ratings range from 62%, in North Carolina, to 69%, in Colorado.
The battleground poll released Friday, and earlier Marist polls taken in Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania, illustrates Mr. Trump’s difficult standing not just in national polls but also in the states that will be crucial to building an Electoral College majority.
The latest Journal/NBC/Marist polls showed that Mrs. Clinton in all four states had made more progress toward consolidating her party base than Mr. Trump has. In Florida, she is backed by 92% of Democrats; Mr. Trump is supported by 79% of Republicans.
In North Carolina, Mrs. Clinton is supported by 89% of Democrats; Mr. Trump, 84% of Republicans. In Colorado, 91% of Democrats are Clinton backers; 79% of Republicans are Trump backers. And in Virginia, 94% of Democrats back Mrs. Clinton; 80% of Republicans back Mr. Trump.
Another trend that could help Mrs. Clinton in these key states is growing approval of President Barack Obama’s job performance, which stands at 50% or higher in each state. That is up 3 points in Colorado and Virginia over the past month, up 2 points in Florida and about the same as the past month in North Carolina.
“It’s a tall order for a sitting president to pass the baton to a member of his own party,” said Mr. Miringoff. “President Obama is actively trying to do just that, and his improved approval rating is boosting that effort.”
There are signs of trouble for other Republicans running in North Carolina’s top statewide contests. Democratic candidate Deborah Ross has pulled to a small lead over GOP Sen. Richard Burr, 46% to 44%, a month after trailing him by 7 percentage points, 48% to 41%.
North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory is losing ground to his Democratic rival, Roy Cooper, who now leads 51% compared with 44%. A month ago, it was tighter, with the governor trailing by only 4 percentage points.
In other states, the down-ballot races haven’t significantly changed. In Colorado, Sen. Michael Bennet is maintaining a 15 percentage point lead over Republican rival Darryl Glenn, 53% to 38%—the same spread as a month ago.
In one important bright spot for Republicans, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has widened his lead over likely Democratic nominee Patrick Murphy by 3 percentage points over the past month, with his support at 49% and Mr. Murphy’s at 43%.
The polls surveyed 862 registered voters in Florida, 897 in Virginia and 899 in Colorado, and have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Also surveyed were 921 registered voters in North Carolina, with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.
Write to Janet Hook at janet.hook@wsj.com
Corrections & Amplifications
Pat McCrory is the governor of North Carolina. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said the governor’s first name was Jim. (Aug. 12, 2016)