This query above was the last question put to me by Leonard Gildarie of Kaieteur Radio before I left the studio last Friday afternoon. I repeat my answer here. It is obvious that Granger knows that his raw power will be circumscribed by two types of dynamics – one internal, the other external.
Let us get the domestic factor out of the way, because Granger will hope to endure that, and believe that over time the acidity of the domestic anger will lessen. The domestic scenario has two dimensions. One is the business community. Even if some of the bigger entrepreneurs for reasons of profits continue to function and entertain relationships with the government, the totality of business attitudes will affect the economy.
The second dimension is more worrying. It is virtually impossible to expect any opposition party that won a manifest victory, yet suffered a coup-like ousting, not to retaliate. The forms of this attitude we can only speculate on, but it is bound to happen. More definitely, the PPP will not participate in parliament and the regional democratic structure.
The virtual life of the PPP is at stake at this time. You don’t need a university education to tell you that right at this moment in time, the PPP is facing its demise. If the APNU+AFC rigged the 2020 election while it was in power, the PPP has to know that it faces the nightmarish question – why are they not going to rig subsequent elections, thereby preserving power for themselves way into the future.
The other side of this question is whether the PPP can remain a viable entity if it accepts the Granger presidency and remains in opposition. Why would young leaders want to continue in the PPP only to give blood, sweat and tears, and to see their political careers stagnated forever in the opposition benches?
By what rational thinking would a young politician want to stay in the PPP’s leadership after March 2020? It is for this compelling reason, the PPP is not going to accept even the most remote relationship with the government, and will fight it, hoping to topple it. I cannot see any other pathway for the PPP after what happened with the 2020 poll.
The incentive of the PPP to confront the Granger presidency lies in the reaction the international community has expressed on the 2020 general elections. All the strategic partners of Guyana the past seventy years will not recognize the Granger regime as legal.
We come now to the external actors. I will briefly repeat a part of my column on the implications of a fraudulent election of Monday, March 9, 2020 with the title, “Granger’s second term: Citing Machiavelli.” I noted the following; “Guyana is a quintessential western hemisphere country whose economy is virtually inseparable from the west. Guyana’s trade and its financial nerve centre are located in the West.”
I come now to the essence of my answer to Gildarie. The leadership of APNU+AFC knows it will not have the latitude to govern effectively. It knows it will not have space to manoeuvre. It knows it will have to make consistent and extensive concessions as the international pressure bites. But it believes that it was better to rig the elections and get into power, because that was the only way it could survive in politics. Let me elaborate.
In the upcoming negotiations for a settlement, the party in power has an advantage, simply because it is in power. It knows it will not be asked to give up power immediately. So while tripartite confabulations between APNU, PPP and the international actors take place, APNU enjoys power by being the government. It can use state power to offer resources to leaders whose career would come to an end in the resulting settlement.
I end with what I believe will be on the agenda in the negotiations. To reform GECOM and the constitution, the ABC/EU countries will ask the PPP to return to parliament. The PPP in turn will ask for one of two things. An interim government, before negotiations begin or alternatively, a specific time log of two years for conclusion of constitutional reform, then immediate fresh elections.
By the time you read this column on Sunday, Granger may be sworn in. But I honestly believe he has lost all credibility in Guyana and the world. His time in office will be a huge psychological burden. I cannot see APNU+AFC governing until 2025. One thing for sure, he will leave absolutely no legacy. He will go down in the history books with far lesser flair than his hero, Forbes Burnham.
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If he swears himself in illegally again there would be serious economic backlash both externally and internally. Most of the countries local food is produced in PPP areas. The biggest trump card is the cash held at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York.
Former Member
Illegitimate Govt. will harm business environment, shut down hope of lifting Guyanese households out of poverty – TOTALTEC Chairman
Mar 16, 2020 News 0 Comments
If there is no respect for due process or the will to ensure a legitimate government is sworn in, then Guyana could see its business environment changing completely as well as the loss of key opportunities to lift households out of poverty within a decade.
TOTALTECH Chairman, Lars Mangal
This is according to Chairman of TOTALTEC Oilfield Services Limited, Lars Mangal.
The businessman, who has more than 30 years experience in the petroleum industry, made these and other comments during a recent interview with Kaieteur News regarding companies’ perspectives on the electoral process.
Since the March 2 General and Regional Elections, there has been stark disagreement between the government and the political opposition, the People’s Progressive Party (PPP), on the integrity of the votes counted for Region Four. The matter ended up in the hands of the judiciary, which later directed that there be respect for transparency and due process in the tabulation of the Statements of Poll.
But further issues still ensued. Following an intervention by CARICOM, there will now be a recount of the votes for all the administrative regions which a high level CARICOM team will oversee.
But upon noting all that took place since March 2, along with allegations that the integrity of the electoral process was tampered with, Mangal said, “The business environment changes completely if you have an illegitimate government.
This catapults Guyana back 50 years and shuts down every hope of the prospect to lift every Guyanese household out poverty within a decade.”
Further to this, Mangal said, “We have already curtailed multiple investment plans as a direct result of the behaviour we are seeing from the current government post 2020 election. Several of our international investment partners are now reconsidering plans…”
The entrepreneur was keen to note that the country is now at grave risk of missing out on a unique window of opportunity to be one of the few countries to benefit in a strong way from its oil and gas industry.
To ensure that the nation and its people benefit from the over 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent resources in the Stabroek Block, Mangal said that some key ingredients are required.
He said that these include a legitimate government, good governance, democracy and visionary leadership. Expounding further, the TOTALTEC Chairman said that the number one priority must be an agenda to lift every Guyanese household out of poverty within a decade while noting that 60 percent of the oil revenues could be dedicated to this purpose.
He said too that 30 percent of the revenues could go towards infrastructure development while 10 percent could be used for building institutional capacity for the educational institutions, the petroleum commission that is expected to come on stream, the oil ministry and even for a national oil company.
“A couple of good men and women are required to implement above,” Mangal said.
Operator of the Stabroek Block, ExxonMobil’s subsidiary, Esso Exploration and Production Guyana Limited (EEPGL), was also asked for its perspective on what is taking place and whether its business decisions would be guided by comments from senior USA officials, the essence of which states that the USA would not recognize a government is sworn in via a nontransparent process.
The American oil giant’s only response was, “We are monitoring the situation closely. It would be premature for us to comment at this time.”
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