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FM
Former Member
AGAIN?

Given the PNC / APNU dismal track record, is there the slightest chance for them in these elections? If I was the betting type, I would wager the barn, the dankey, the dankey cart and the fowl coop that there is no chance in hell for APNU/PNC to garner more than their traditional 30- 35 % of popular votes cast. ( the likes of Rupert Roopnarine, Rishi Thakur, Malcolm Harripaul etc. are without constituents. No permutation, no gerrymandering and no superficial dressing up and coalescing with fringes can breath life into a political corpse whose requiem is long overdue. Given this undeniable reality, would it not make perfect sense for APNU/PNC to gracefully give up the ghost and free their supporters from their perpetual bondage? Their withdrawal from contesting the elections would free their supporters to throw their lot with the AFC. With Nagamoottoo leaching a mere 10- 15 % of traditional PPP votes ( read indians) and Van West Charles beckoning from the AFC parlor, the AFC could realistically emerge with an absolute majority and forever break the old pattern of race politics . Is this just wishful thinking? I hope not. The sooner APNU / PNC and their supporters come to recognize that ethnic cleavage only guarantee the perpetuation of the PPP in office, the better for them and all Guyana. Now look how Caribj is throwing a hissy fit about these cliquish/ clannish Indos Wink

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I think Kari made the point that Voting in Guyana is not on a merit system. It never was. The constitution does not encourage it and the parties are content with appealing to their "base" which happens to be appealing to ethnic identity. The right or the wrong of it is inconsequential. What is necessary is the reality that we must forge a basis for democracy to emerge in this racially bifurcated environment. We cannot continually harp on the sins of the fathers since all of our fathers were pernicious in their profligacy. We are their morally withered offsprings who must save ourselves by forging a basis for our being or not.

We all delude ourselves that liberal universalism is a democratizing agency. That however has proved wrong and as a consequence we have ethnic based wars all over the globe. Most of the former cobbled together states of the old Soviet Union have now fragmented into their ethnic enclaves and re-tribalized fiercely in defense of it. Ethnic primordialism has emerged to be a legitimate right and states with significant ethnic minorities must learn to accommodate that diversity or be doomed.

The literature on conflict mediation these past 2 decades has come up with creative constructs for Democracy. Scholars and political solution seekers have begun to acknowledge ethnic allegiance is a right and this fact produced many creative ideas in the area of consociationalism and power sharing in a variety of flavors.

Contrary to the liberal agenda of universalism, these states with healthy acceptance of their ethnic make up are doing better than those with assimilatve agendas or pretense to a race neutral creed. Surprisingly, these states have are even more receptive to universalism once secured in the idea that their identity is part of that social milieu and essential to it.

Ethnic cleavages not only guarantee the PPP remain in office; they depend on it no less than the PNC. When we acknowledge it exists and see it as a legitimate human need integral to identity, we are better for it. We need however to make sure we have institutional fences to secure our ethnic rights but also to secure our rights to be citizens in the state without ethnic nepotism overriding merit. Alas the PPP and the PNC ( APNU) are not yet prepared for that.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
Ethnic cleavages not only guarantee the PPP remain in office;


They dont. The PPP can no longer guarantee victory based only on the Indian vote, which is now less than 50%...probably around 45%. Which is why so much is spent highlighting their socalled "support" from Africans and Amerindians.

The PPP wins because the opposition parties fail to galvanize Guyanese against them.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by caribj:
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
Ethnic cleavages not only guarantee the PPP remain in office;


They dont. The PPP can no longer guarantee victory based only on the Indian vote, which is now less than 50%...probably around 45%. Which is why so much is spent highlighting their socalled "support" from Africans and Amerindians.

The PPP wins because the opposition parties fail to galvanize Guyanese against them.
The Indian vote is hardened for them. It means they fight for less turf and can arrange their arsenal on the battle field more efficiently ie bead trading with Amerinds and extending patronage to those who would be loyal servants because they are assured a faithful patron.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
The Indian vote is hardened for them. .


This doesnt seem to be so this time. And the PPP know this, hence their recruiting of the types of blacks who must damage their image among Indians. PNC hooligans, becasue this is who they can gte, hoping they split the Afro vote, bringing in some with them.

I am sure many younger, more urban, and/or educated Indians are now beginning to wonder whether blind support for the PPP is a good thing. Yes the older rural crowds will always be PPP, but some Indos can be shifted if people tried. And when they try to do this, make similar overtures to blacks/mixed who are not as hard core PNC as they used to be.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by caribj:
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
The Indian vote is hardened for them. .


This doesnt seem to be so this time. Just look at GNI as an example. PPP supporters are becoming as extinct as PNC supporters.

I am sure many younger, more urban, and/or educated Indians are now beginning to wonder whether blind support for the PPP is a good thing. Yes the older rural crowds will always be PPP, but some Indos can be shifted if people tried. And when they try to do this, make similar overtures to blacks/mixed who are not as hard core PNC as they used to be.
GN&I is a sand box. It is not representative of a real polity. With the exception of a few, most are serious about their advocacy and do so from secure moral positions. That inevitably puts them outside the range either of the two main parties. The AFC does not have as much history so they are the default proposition. Add to that they also address many core issues of accountability.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
I think Kari made the point that Voting in Guyana is not on a merit system. It never was. The constitution does not encourage it and the parties are content with appealing to their "base" which happens to be appealing to ethnic identity. The right or the wrong of it is inconsequential. What is necessary is the reality that we must forge a basis for democracy to emerge in this racially bifurcated environment. We cannot continually harp on the sins of the fathers since all of our fathers were pernicious in their profligacy. We are their morally withered offsprings who must save ourselves by forging a basis for our being or not.

We all delude ourselves that liberal universalism is a democratizing agency. That however has proved wrong and as a consequence we have ethnic based wars all over the globe. Most of the former cobbled together states of the old Soviet Union have now fragmented into their ethnic enclaves and re-tribalized fiercely in defense of it. Ethnic primordialism has emerged to be a legitimate right and states with significant ethnic minorities must learn to accommodate that diversity or be doomed.

The literature on conflict mediation these past 2 decades has come up with creative constructs for Democracy. Scholars and political solution seekers have begun to acknowledge ethnic allegiance is a right and this fact produced many creative ideas in the area of consociationalism and power sharing in a variety of flavors.

Contrary to the liberal agenda of universalism, these states with healthy acceptance of their ethnic make up are doing better than those with assimilatve agendas or pretense to a race neutral creed. Surprisingly, these states have are even more receptive to universalism once secured in the idea that their identity is part of that social milieu and essential to it.

Ethnic cleavages not only guarantee the PPP remain in office; they depend on it no less than the PNC. When we acknowledge it exists and see it as a legitimate human need integral to identity, we are better for it. We need however to make sure we have institutional fences to secure our ethnic rights but also to secure our rights to be citizens in the state without ethnic nepotism overriding merit. Alas the PPP and the PNC ( APNU) are not yet prepared for that.


The pattern of ethnic insecurity, ethnic cleavage and the resultant ethnic voting has long been established and accepted by many. The continued staring down of each other to see who would blink first, is yielding nothing but the status quo which the PPP are most comfortable with. I have always maintained that without the PNC, the PPP would die a natural death, but this morph into APNU is not fooling anyone.
FM

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