Why they did not fear a backlash from Indian supporters all along when they shacked up with APNU?

Who are the political commentators?

Why are they now declaring themselves an "Indian Party"?

Is this a cry for help from a party that realized that are over the cliff?

 read www.timehritoday.blogspot.com

On the Topic, "Those who vote Peoples's Progressive Party."

It's a political strategy.

with ethnic voting the opposition feels its best chance is to have APNU continue on its path and get most of the Black votes, and have the AFC hammer away at the Indian vote that would either go to the PPP or stay-at-home. That's why a Moses Presidency and not Nigel evolved. The PPP's task is to make inroads into the Black and mixed ethnic voting and stave off the AFC from its Indian base.

Which ever strategy prevails will shape the outcome of the next elections.

This by far the best assessment on GNI regarding election political strategy in Guyana.

100 Percent accurate.

That The PPP Has Misread The Mood Of The Population Is Speculative

Allegations of corruption have always bedeviled the PPP, as they did the PNC when the latter was in power for twenty-eight years. But these allegations have never seriously fractured the support base of the PPP or for that matter the PNC. It is therefore not a plausible theory that the emergence of a kleptocracy under the PPP administration is likely to witness an erosion of support within its electoral base. This erosion did not happen after the Stone Scam, the Gold Scam or the Sea Defense Scam. It did not happen after the conservancy broke away after hundreds of millions of dollars were spent on it. It did not happen after the failures of the Skeldon Sugar Factor and the controversies over the Berbice River Bridge, the Marriott Hotel or the fifty or more bogus duty free letters that were signed in a certain Ministry.  It will not happen because of the termination of the contract for the Specialty Hospital. The corruption, in other words, is not a critical determinant as to how the supporters of the ruling party vote.  It is however an important component as to whether these supporters will stay away from the polls.  Corruption also galvanizes support for the opposition parties.  A great many supporters of the PPP stayed away from the polls because of their perceptions of corruption under the Jagdeo regime. And when supporters of the opposition parties saw the size of a certain palace constructed by a big one in the government, this angered them and they turned out in their numbers to vote against the government. But it was not this turnout that allowed the opposition their one seat majority. The factor most influencing how people vote in Guyana is ethnic insecurity. And this insecurity remains. Both of the main political parties know how to massage the insecurities of their constituents.   As such, it will continue to strongly influence the voting patterns in Guyana. This fact has led to the emphasis on voter turnout. Both of the main political parties have stressed the importance of all their supporters turning out to vote. However, voter turnout, while important, is an overrated factor in the overall outcome of Guyana’s elections. This is better understood by an example. Assuming there are 300,000 eligible voters and assuming also that voting is strictly along ethnic lines. It would mean that based on the last published census which put East Indians at 44 per cent and Africans at 33 per cent of the population, the PPP should have a constituency of 132,000 and the PNCR a constituency of 99,000. If the voter turnout of the PNCR supporters is 70 per cent and those of the PPP a mere 60 per cent, the PNC would end up with a total of 69,300 votes and the PPP with 79,200. The PPP therefore would still win with a plurality even though the turnout of PNC voters is 10 per cent more than the PPP. Even if the PPP turnout dipped to 55 per cent, the PPP would still enjoy a greater number of votes than the PNCR. Both the PPP and the PNC have seen the number of votes cast in their favour decline over the years. In fact, over the course of three elections, the total number of votes earned by the PPP has declined by 40,000. The PNCR, now in a partnership with APNU, has also suffered massive losses in terms of the total number of votes cast. This has led to the conclusion that there has been a change in the demographics of the country. In other words, what is being said is that the losses the PPP suffered, particularly in Region Six is due to a decline in the number of East Indians. There is however no empirical evidence to assess just how the overall decline in the population of Region Six is apportioned. But there are two issues to consider here. The first is that this decline may be due to rural-urban migration. This would mean that the reduction in population gain in Region Six would have been some other Regions’ gain. The second issue is that there is no evidence that the overall reduction in the population of Region Six has been restricted only to the East Indian communities. There has equally also been a reduction in the population of Georgetown, a predominant stronghold of the PNCR but the same argument is not being made. The idea therefore that the PPP has misread the mood of the population by not appreciating changes in the country’s demography is at best speculative. The PPP of course has the results of the latest census and when this is made public, only then we would be in a better position to judge how much the demographics may have shifted against the PPP.

The PPP isn't even trying to get black/mixed votes this time.  The Indian "slaves" are restless and the PPP wants to prevent them from "escaping".  I think that for the first time the PPP actually fears that they might lose, or even if they win, a second round as a minority government destroys any claim that they might think that they have that the electorate has given them a mandate.

The fact that this is self defeating hasn't dawned on the PPP.  Now APNU can have little meetings in PPP strongholds to intimidate the PPP.  Not that they expect Indian votes, but to ensure that the PPP stays away from their base. Granger seems intent in showing Indians that he isn't the demon which the PPP tries to portray him as being.  That leaves Indians to vote AFC to teach the PPP a lesson, even if this increasing the risk of an APNU victory.

This time around the PPP isn't even fooling itself that they can make inroads into the black and mixed vote.  They have all but conceded those voters to APNU.  No boasts of winning in Linden this time around.

Why do you think Indians would want to teach the PPP a lesson at the risk of an APNU victory. You are crazy to think Indians are stupidee.

Two issues with this.

1.  The PNCs base isn't just the 32% (1991 census numbers) who self indentify as "African" but the many others who self identify as "mixed" but who maintain strong cultural, social, and often, familial ties.

2.  G/town's population is shrinking as many move to EBD and WBD,  Region 4 and especially Region 3 has seen population growth.  Region 6 has lost 25% of its population over the past 23 years.  Where have they gone?  maybe some to Region 3 and 4, but evidence is that many have left Guyana altogether.  Indeed between 1991 and 2002 the Indian population fell from 49% to 43% with the self identified Africans falling from 32% to 30%.

They did last time.  The conversation just before the election was much like it is now.  The PPP squealing that the AFC is a small party which will get 2 seats.  And then displaying how confused the PPP is, screaming that Nagamootoo was going to split the Indian vote, letting APNU win.

Well the results spoke for themselves in terms of AFC inroads in Regions 5 and 6 and reduced voter turn out in the very rural Regions 2 and 3.  APNU sharply increased its votes in Region 3, so clearly it was the PPP which lost support.

Apparently the PNC isn't seen as scary as it once was when compared to PPP arrogance.

In addition, Indians aren't the majority any more.  The tied is moving away from the PPP as Guyana's population has become more mixed.  The PNC traditionally winning most mixed voters.

Y'all keep missing a very important point. the AFC isn't the same sexy party that some Indians fell in love with in 2011. That infatuation has worn off. But y'all can keep thinking that Guyana is not back to a two party country. 

And you think that most Guyanese, regardless of race aren't primarily concerned with PPP arrogance and corruption.

15 years ago when Guyanese were interviewed the blacks were hostile and Indians either said nothing or were favorable.

Now it is hard to see where Indians and blacks differ.  They both have the SAME complaints about life in Guyana.

The grouses of the blacks entice them to vote for APNU (Nagamootoo isn't speaking to them).  The Indian grouses entice them NOT to vote PPP.

Remember even if Indians don't vote AFC, if they stay home then that is a vote lost to the PPP and gained by APNU.

And its obvious that the PPP fears the AFC. Why the incessant gripe and screaming about the AFC, and attempts to flirt with Granger?  After all if the PPP loses it will not be to the AFC.

Why would the grouses of the blacks entice them to vote for APNU. They weren't any better off during the PNC rule. They too live under unlivable wages, empty shelves and abject poverty. When I left Guyana in 1987, blacks were still much poorer than Indians. Why would they want to go back there? Having an APNU government can't be enough of a reason to go back to those terrible days of yore.

Does it matter if APNU or SAPNU wins?  Any donkey can do better that this king kong PPP Government.

Dumbo, and Indians stupid, right!  Banna, that one-trick pony tumble over long time ago.  Get this, PNC ain't going to make inroads with Indians and PPP ain't gon make inroads with Blacks.  The hope of unity under the AFC has long been dashed, now everyone went "home".

Flour boy, sour grapes.

dem bai smoking glue.

With the migration of Amerindians, Brazilians, Chinese, and East Indians into region #4 it is just a matter of time for the PNC to lose this prized region that has a total of 7 regional seats. I wonder if Caribny ever thought about this. 

Excellent observation.

First of all most people consider APNU today to be very different from the Burnham era PNC.  Indeed the recovery of Guyana is attributed to Hoyte's ERP.  Indeed that forced Jagan to not put in place a Castroite system that he certainly would have had he directly succeeded Burnham.

So you don't know that a return of APNU will lead to a return of the Burnham era disaster.  Just as the PPP of today is a radically different party than it was of the Janet Jagan era, so is the PNC.

Black people are WORSE off relative to Indians now than they were then, and they attribute that to racism directed against them.   Not onoy are they poorer that they are treated as SCUM.

Indeed Guyanese living in Antigua told Jagdeo when he visited that their treatment as foreigners in Antigua was akin to being black in Guyana.  So basically they felt that they were treated as foreigners in THEIR own country.  So they will NOT vote PPP. 

The AFC is NOT courting their vote.  If a political party doesn't woo support from a group they signal that they don't consider that group to be important  The implication being that should that party win the election, this bloc will be ignored.

So blacks do not have any choice but to vote APNU if they wish to rid Guyana of the PPP.  The thinking is that ridding Guyana of the PPP is the first step towards improving their situation.  The second being holding APNU to account, should they win.

Babble and scream as much as you want but the PPP (and the Indian elite in general) has displayed racist attitudes towards Afro Guyanese, so ought not to be shocked that they are not trusted! 

You can support a continuation of the status quo where blacks are being squeezed out of opportunity all you wish and you can rant that you know more about the condition of blacks in Guyana than they do.  At the end of the day they have no interest in what you have to say.  That is unless you respect them, which you obviously don't.

and what make you think these people will vote ppp unless they plan to live in pradoville

What proof do you have that the Brazilians and Chinese have any interest in voting in Guyana?  They are there to make money and leave.

How do you know that the Indians in Region 4 are as die hard PPP supporters as those in Region 6 are.

Yes it is a known fact that the PPP is deliberately giving blacks house lots in region 3 to reduce the black population in region 4.  But then you assume that Indians in region 4 are owned by the PPP. 

Indeed the AFC stands an excellent chance of increasing their base in region 4 if they ever decided that life exists outside of regions 5 and 6.

Its a known fact that you are a black hating racist. I still remember your rants about how dirty black people are, lazy, and stupid and criminal and how without Indians Guyana would have been like Haiti.  And that Africans eat ants and your attempt to paint Rwanda as typical of what blacks are capable of (I suggest that you revisit the progress that nation has made by the way).

You wanted the AFC to be a stooge of the PPP and they didn't become this.  Apparently not every Indian is like you, especially those who are younger.

Any case you do know that it is likely that only 70% of Guyanese now self identify as "Indian" or "African".  So the party which captures this remaining group will be an increasingly powerful entity.  Screaming that the AFC is "stealing" Indian votes isn't exactly how the PPP is going to interest the increasingly non Indian population which is Guyana.

Why do you think I don't respect blacks?

Don't take it personally he thinks everyone hates black people and therefore it justifies him hating everyone who is not black.

Don't try to understand it no one can.........

Because if you did you would respect their perspective that they face rampant discrimination directed against them by the Indian elite.

Another one who disrespects Afro Guyanese.  They are very vocal that they face rampant racism directed against them at the hands of the Indian elite.

But you prefer to disrespect them by pretending as if it is only caribj who thinks so.

Feel free to think so if you wish.  You are then no different from those Afro Guyanese who disrespect those Indians who complained about racism directed against them during the Burnham era by claiming that no such racism existed.

OOOOOPs.  Forgot.  My bad.  You see in Guyana its OK to talk of the racism of the African elites towards Indians during the Burnham era.  But it becomes "racist" to discuss very similar racism directed against blacks by the Indian elite during the Jagdeo/Ramotar era.  Hmmmm!

And if you weren't so engrossed in your own world, you would have noticed that I have consistently supported a representative government. I did so even before the last election. I also voted twice for Obama. So why do you think I don't respect black people again? 

Here you go again Caribny. Your racist views cloud your better judgement.

It inhibits the use of common sense. Here is another classic example of you making a vulgar ass of yourself. You see what i am talkin about?

What does that have to do with an Afro Guyanese professional who is told "is not Burnham time" when he attempts to seek employment?  With the person saying that touching their hair just in case the person is too young to know what he means.

This is what people care about.  Not some accommodation for the political elites.

This is now rampant in Guyana where more than a few people think that being a security guard is all that black men should aspire to be.

Unless you address the claims of many blacks that they face rampant racism against them in the PRIVATE sector, and not just areas under the domain of the PPP you are deliberately ignoring the point.

I see your definition of racism is some one who speaks out against discrimination.

Well, using your criteria, the vast majority of Indo Guyanese are racist because they were quite vocal against racism directed against them under PNC rule. In fact even going as far as describing Guyana as an apartheid state!

OOOOPS......."black man bad, Indo good, so the only racism in Guyana is against Indians"!  My bad.  As far as people like you and ksazma are concerned, any other analysis of Guyana is racist.

You then wonder why people don't trust Nagamootoo.  He like you, denied that racism existed in Guyana post 1992.  Now he refuses to speak to black people.

So what.  Obama is a half white president.

Bai, even in 2014 America, there is still employment discrimination. If I tell you that I support a government with enough parliamentarians to represent all segments of the population, you say you don't want that. So what do you want from the next election?

Wha about curvy, Michelle,

The USA has had a history of some of the most extreme racism in the western world, so if you are excusing what is happening in Guyana today on the basis of that you are really damning the attitudes of Indian elites towards blacks!

The issue in Guyana is racism pure and simple.  The political parties, ALL OF THEM, merely pander to this.