OIL prices will continue to rise, and will pose an even greater threat to Guyana’s energy security, warned renowned Canada-based Guyanese professor and scientist, Dr. Suresh Narine, in addressing the National Economic Forum on Tuesday.

Dr. Narine justified his support for the Amaila Falls Hydropower Project on the basis of “monotonic” increases in oil prices, saying: “What we have in Guyana is an opportunity in hydro which allows us to address this issue in a very elegant fashion.” The impact of rising energy prices on Guyana would be significant, he pointed out, as “a shocking 94 percent of all energy consumed in this country” is derived from imported fossil fuels, which “as early as 2008”, cost the country between “45 and 55 percent of GDP.”

“That’s a crippling amount to spend, for any country,” Dr. Narine observed, in positing that costly energy impacts on Guyana’s industrial competitiveness.

He declared: “Expensive energy in Guyana is the single largest barrier to increased manufacturing, value added processing of agricultural commodities, mechanisation of agriculture, large-scale mining; and, indeed, quality of life in Guyana.”

High energy costs, he asserted, constitute a “security issue”. He said: “Countries like us (Guyana) won’t be able to access that energy…this is the reality, today.”

Dr Narine cautioned that the region’s energy security might also be at risk as a result of the uncertain political situation in Venezuela, and what this could mean for Petrocaribe, the Hugo Chavez-founded facility which provides oil to Caribbean and Central American nations on favourable terms.

Professor Narine, who teaches at Trent University in Canada, cited an “explosive” growth in the world’s population as one of the reasons behind the upward swing in oil prices. While indicating that as at 2013, the world’s population stood at seven billion, he opined that “at current rates, conservative estimates are that we’d be nine billion in 2050.”

He added that the growth of the middle classes in developing countries such as Brazil, India and China has also placed a skyward pressure on energy prices.

He explained that while having “half a billion people moving into the middle class” is a good thing, it also yields “on average, a tripling of their energy dependence.” In addition, he pointed out that as poorer people move into the middle classes, they eat more protein, and this ups the demand for energy.

“One unit of protein takes seven units of grain to produce,” the scientist informed, adding: “And guess what produces grain? Energy! The energy equation is linked…to our ability to produce, process and transport safe food.”

The conventional supply of oil is being outstripped by demand, he indicated, and this will worsen the escalation of fuel prices. Addressing the eventual onset of peak oil – the point in time when it is expected that the maximum rate of petroleum extraction would be reached – he noted that peak oil might be reached as early as 2024, or by as late as 2040.