There are just not enough angry white men to make it happen He cannot win Florida Pennsylvanian, Virginia and Ohio which he must to win. She only need two.  Additionally if she lose three she still has other pathways.

From the recent surveys and within the margin of errors, Trump has an extremely steep hill to climb.

There is only one positive should Trump win. Canadians purchasing power would be awesome, they will be able to visit the US and spend spend spend because the US currency would be devalued after China pulls the plug on them. 200-1

Well, we see.  Clearly Hillary not connecting.  After the Convention, two point lead is a bad sign, but let's see!  The issue here is the Leftist media who no one believes.  Then we have the illegals and their allies in the immigrant community who actually hate America and what it represents!!

Kari posted:

The Sunday talk shows had some interesting takes on what will determine the outcome of the 2016 US Presidential election.

• This is about angry white men - Trump can shoot people on 5th Ave and he will still get elected.
• This is about the macro stuff, not about saying what your policies are - Trump famously said he'll figure out things after being elected in the White House.
• The Electoral College map does not natter as this is being framed as a "national" election and it's appealing to people who are angry without having to be decent - hence all the Donald's abuses and thin-skinned responses don't matter.

 

Looks like Trump is in a good position. He's a strong man in end of civilization times against a weak conniving woman.

The Electoral map matters until it doesn't says Meet the Press's Chuck Todd. So be it.

The electoral map does matter.  Where ever large clusters of working class whites cluster that becomes fertile ground for Trump.

And indeed this is why Hillary is focusing on the Midwest because this is where the greatest vulnerability lies.  FACT.  Working class whites HATE her even more than they hate Obama.  That is because they blame the Clintons for NAFTA which they think created their woes.

These folks don't care about how well the markets have been doing and all the millions of people who have jobs.  They care that THEIR situation remains dire.

So Hillary is educating them as to the fact that, regardless as to whether they think that she is a crook or not, that Trump is part of the reason why many in the Midwest haven't benefited from the economy.

Her best one liner (these folks get bored if you do more than that) is that Trump wants to make America great but doesn't care to make anything in America.

Kari get it into your head.  PA is a swing state, even though it has consistently voted for the Dems in recent years.  So is IA.  FL can be won or lost by a few thousand votes.  There is a pathway to a Trump victory albeit a very thin one.

Hillary is working hard to block it!

So you need to stop thinking that the election is over and Trump's loss is assured.  Hillary does NOT think so, nor do any credible political analysts.

ba$eman posted:

Well, we see.  Clearly Hillary not connecting.  After the Convention, two point lead is a bad sign, but let's see! 

Baseman tell us why Trump buys from overseas and not from the USA.

  Do you think that the white working class want to hear his excuse which is that Trump thinks that they get paid too much.

Do you think that workers in MI and OH want to hear that Trump was against the bailout of the auto industry because he wanted these workers to be forced to accept lower pay.

Hillary has Trump braced in a corner and all he can chat is nonsense.

Stormborn posted:

There are just not enough angry white men

All one needs in those states is a 5% switch in voting by the white working class who voted for Obama towards Trump.  There is a 3% switch white working class women, and almost 20% by their male equivalents.  Trump is no Romney.

It is in the Midwest where the angry white working class can do serious damage because a good chunk of the votes that Obama got were in fact from the white working class.

Also its a fallacy to think that women are Democrats. Obama won 48% of the white female vote, which means that he won even LESS of the white working class female vote.

So it is NOT impossible for Trump to win. It is just very unlikely. And this mainly because the man is undisciplined with no impulse control, and as many rejected McCain because he selected Pallin, Pence isn't going to save Trump.

But then this is NOT assured.  If Trump wins FL, NC, VA (or PA), OH and IA he wins.  Loads in working class whites in all of the states mentioned.

This is why Hillary will rent a condo in the Midwest because she is going to be living there until November.   That is when she isn't in FL and VA, two other must win states.

caribny posted:

Stormborn posted:

There are just not enough angry white men

All one needs in those states is a 2-5% switch in voting by the white working class who voted for Obama towards Trump.

It is in the Midwest where the angry white working class can do serious damage because a good chunk of the votes that Obama got were in fact from the white working class.

Also its a fallacy to think that women are Democrats. Obama won 48% of the white female vote, which means that he won even LESS of the white working class female vote.

So it is NOT impossible for Trump to win. It is just very unlikely. And this mainly because the man is undisciplined with no impulse control, and as many rejected McCain because he selected Pallin, Pence isn't going to save Trump.

But then this is NOT assured.  If Trump wins FL, NC, VA (or PA), OH and IA he wins.  Loads in working class whites in all of the states mentioned.

This is why Hillary will rent a condo in the Midwest because she is going to be living there until November.   That is when she isn't in FL and VA, two other must win states.

Banna, this is a different election. Hillary could rent wherever she wishes, will change little.  The convention apparatus silenced and gagged Sanders supporters not in favor of Hillary, and Sanders allowed it.  These people must feel ashamed and dejected!  Crooked Hillary is now a contortionist which no one believes!

The odds are in favor of Trump being president!

caribny posted:

Stormborn posted:

There are just not enough angry white men

All one needs in those states is a 5% switch in voting by the white working class who voted for Obama towards Trump.  There is a 3% switch white working class women, and almost 20% by their male equivalents.  Trump is no Romney.

It is in the Midwest where the angry white working class can do serious damage because a good chunk of the votes that Obama got were in fact from the white working class.

Also its a fallacy to think that women are Democrats. Obama won 48% of the white female vote, which means that he won even LESS of the white working class female vote.

So it is NOT impossible for Trump to win. It is just very unlikely. And this mainly because the man is undisciplined with no impulse control, and as many rejected McCain because he selected Pallin, Pence isn't going to save Trump.

But then this is NOT assured.  If Trump wins FL, NC, VA (or PA), OH and IA he wins.  Loads in working class whites in all of the states mentioned.

This is why Hillary will rent a condo in the Midwest because she is going to be living there until November.   That is when she isn't in FL and VA, two other must win states.

the battle lines are hardened. He will poll 60 percent of whites but that is not enough. He cannot win more of the white electorate. The fight is for the middle 10 percent and those are all urban educated and mainly women.

ba$eman posted:

caribny posted:

Stormborn posted:

There are just not enough angry white men

All one needs in those states is a 2-5% switch in voting by the white working class who voted for Obama towards Trump.

It is in the Midwest where the angry white working class can do serious damage because a good chunk of the votes that Obama got were in fact from the white working class.

Also its a fallacy to think that women are Democrats. Obama won 48% of the white female vote, which means that he won even LESS of the white working class female vote.

So it is NOT impossible for Trump to win. It is just very unlikely. And this mainly because the man is undisciplined with no impulse control, and as many rejected McCain because he selected Pallin, Pence isn't going to save Trump.

But then this is NOT assured.  If Trump wins FL, NC, VA (or PA), OH and IA he wins.  Loads in working class whites in all of the states mentioned.

This is why Hillary will rent a condo in the Midwest because she is going to be living there until November.   That is when she isn't in FL and VA, two other must win states.

Banna, this is a different election. Hillary could rent wherever she wishes, will change little.  The convention apparatus silenced and gagged Sanders supporters not in favor of Hillary, and Sanders allowed it.  These people must feel ashamed and dejected!  Crooked Hillary is now a contortionist which no one believes!

The odds are in favor of Trump being president!

yes it is a different elections....rednecks and backward racists nationalist who believe they own america vs a progressive pluralistic educated majority knowing America is not founded as a white nation.

Stormborn posted:

caribny posted:

Stormborn posted:

There are just not enough angry white men

All one needs in those states is a 5% switch in voting by the white working class who voted for Obama towards Trump.  There is a 3% switch white working class women, and almost 20% by their male equivalents.  Trump is no Romney.

It is in the Midwest where the angry white working class can do serious damage because a good chunk of the votes that Obama got were in fact from the white working class.

Also its a fallacy to think that women are Democrats. Obama won 48% of the white female vote, which means that he won even LESS of the white working class female vote.

So it is NOT impossible for Trump to win. It is just very unlikely. And this mainly because the man is undisciplined with no impulse control, and as many rejected McCain because he selected Pallin, Pence isn't going to save Trump.

But then this is NOT assured.  If Trump wins FL, NC, VA (or PA), OH and IA he wins.  Loads in working class whites in all of the states mentioned.

This is why Hillary will rent a condo in the Midwest because she is going to be living there until November.   That is when she isn't in FL and VA, two other must win states.

the battle lines are hardened. He will poll 60 percent of whites but that is not enough. He cannot win more of the white electorate. The fight is for the middle 10 percent and those are all urban educated and mainly women.

And women love cantankerous men who take care if their kids!  Women distrust [crooked] Hillary!

ba$eman posted:

And women love cantankerous men who take care if their kids!  Women distrust [crooked] Hillary!

Some women .. not women.

ba$eman posted:

 

The odds are in favor of Trump being president!

Really when folks want to know why he refuses to buy US made products, and why he wanted the Midwest economy to collapse by not bailing out the auto industry?

I don't think so.

Listen the star of the RNC was Scott Baio. Every reputable Republican went diving into deep caves, except for the few who had to be there.

While Hillary cannot go to St. Thomas and kick up her feet in celebration, the reality is that a Trump victory is very remote. 

Stormborn posted:

caribny posted:

Stormborn posted:

There are just not enough angry white men

All one needs in those states is a 5% switch in voting by the white working class who voted for Obama towards Trump.  There is a 3% switch white working class women, and almost 20% by their male equivalents.  Trump is no Romney.

It is in the Midwest where the angry white working class can do serious damage because a good chunk of the votes that Obama got were in fact from the white working class.

Also its a fallacy to think that women are Democrats. Obama won 48% of the white female vote, which means that he won even LESS of the white working class female vote.

So it is NOT impossible for Trump to win. It is just very unlikely. And this mainly because the man is undisciplined with no impulse control, and as many rejected McCain because he selected Pallin, Pence isn't going to save Trump.

But then this is NOT assured.  If Trump wins FL, NC, VA (or PA), OH and IA he wins.  Loads in working class whites in all of the states mentioned.

This is why Hillary will rent a condo in the Midwest because she is going to be living there until November.   That is when she isn't in FL and VA, two other must win states.

the battle lines are hardened. He will poll 60 percent of whites but that is not enough. He cannot win more of the white electorate. The fight is for the middle 10 percent and those are all urban educated and mainly women.

Actually Trump has been making inroads into the white working class in the Midwest.  Unlike the South many of these people do in fact vote for the Dems so their defection can have effect.

Not ready for Hillary to soak her sore feet on Magen's Bay St. Thomas yet.  She is too busy blocking every hole that the skunk Trump will try to use to get a narrow path to victory.  That rides down the Midwest as Trump isn't winning any where else that matters, except maybe FL, based on what a few polls claim.  He cannot win VA, given that

Stormborn you sound like the folks in the UK who were so sure that Brexit would lose that they didn't campaign properly and as a result more of those who wanted to leave voted vs. those who wanted to stay.

We have the SAME type of election here.  Complacency will lead the Bernie types and others assorted Hillary haters (and there are many) to stay home, and that is Trump's narrow path to victory.

ba$eman posted:

Stormborn

And women love cantankerous men who take care if their kids!  Women distrust [crooked] Hillary!

They distrust Hillary.  They HATE the Donald who screams that a working wife is a dangerous thing.

Oi carib, so who you really think gonna win this thing, I see you telling Baseless that Trump cyan get it, you tellin Stormy Trump could get it.

Hey Ba$eless.....while Hillary is the nominee, have you seen the platform? It's mostly Bernie's.

Cribman,

• Pennsylvania has not voted Republican since 1988. They last voted Republican for Regan in 1984.
• With a declining while male percentage of the votes, Trump's margin of victory has to be far higher than what Romney won that demographic by.
• Do not discount the increased Haitian and non-Cuban Hispanic votes in Florida, a State where Romney is better than Trump and a State that does not have the depressed manufacturing experience.