Yes, it is all about voter turnout. We can say the same about the Guyana elections, given the closeness of the votes. 

The point has been made about non-quantifiable factors like Immigration in the referendum vote.

The point of demographics is public knowledge - the Hispanic, Black and Asian voter registration makes up 27% of the US electorate. That leaves whites at 73%. If Hillary gets 24% of the non-white votes that’s a 23% margin among whites that the Donald will have to make up.

So if we shift from the demographics to non-quantifiable factors, we can take a look at the lessons of the Referendum held in Britain a couple days ago. Brexit showed that the voters who turned out, by a margin of 52 – 48 were pissed at colored people coming into their country and taking jobs. So 2 objects arise – Immigration and Globalization (for the US think Trade Pacts). I will even throw in another one and that is Wall St.

Tell me though how do these non-quantifiable factors intersect with the demographics?

Think about this also. Trump is broke and with not much of an organization. So both the ground game (retail campaigning) and the air game (media ads) are not good for him. So the polls show he’s hanging around and he hasn’t started spending his own money yet (he’s been known as a tight wad), so maybe for Trump all those negatives are good.

But you still have to make these intersect with the demographics. You see the Donald has solidified the Republican base already – that’s why he’s not doing badly in Ohio and Pennsylvania – rust belt states, with a lot of high-school educated whites. However he’s doing badly in a diversified state like Florida. Hillary is still to solidify her base while Bernie is still hanging around.

But man I keep coming back to the reality of the known factors

Which is? 

Maybe the force that is behind Trump will do something and keep away non-whites from the polls.

The man is charmed.

Destiny does cause some confusion for the simple minded. All the energies against Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan couldn't prevail.

America is a great country. So far, its leaders were like the Greeks, cultured. 

Too many enemies at its gates, time for a Barbarian. 

seignet posted:

Maybe the force that is behind Trump will do something and keep away non-whites from the polls.

The man is charmed.

Destiny does cause some confusion for the simple minded. All the energies against Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan couldn't prevail.

America is a great country. So far, its leaders were like the Greeks, cultured. 

Too many enemies at its gates, time for a Barbarian. 

Trump is timing his attacks.  Everyone made a fuss over his lack of commentary on BREXIT, well the average American could care less.  The stock market went down 3+%, so what, it will recover, it's all panic selling.

Three key issues deciding the elections, the Economy, Security and Immigration.  He leads big on the economy.  He needs to work a strategy on Security and Immigration as on both, Hillary has her kinks.  Of critical importance also, he needs to up his ratings in Florida.

My understanding from contacts in his camp, he intends to make a big splash at the convention as it will be the most watched event in American history.  Trump is clever, he is picking his fights and is much more on the ball than letting people believe.  He is saving up for a "blitz krieg"!

1.5 million signed an online petition in UK to have a revote. Is this going to happen? Buyers remorse?

skeldon_man posted:

1.5 million signed an online petition in UK to have a revote. Is this going to happen? Buyers remorse?

Some did not know what they were buying, except keep immigrants out.

A report showed that millions googled " What is EC" the day after the referendum.

skeldon_man posted:

1.5 million signed an online petition in UK to have a revote. Is this going to happen? Buyers remorse?

I doubt, not now anyway.  The problem was with those liberals who believe they will have the country swamped with Islamists and not get a reaction.  Cameron dislike Trump, but he was not watching his own flank!

Chief posted:

skeldon_man posted:

1.5 million signed an online petition in UK to have a revote. Is this going to happen? Buyers remorse?

Some did not know what they were buying, except keep immigrants out.

A report showed that millions googled " What is EC" the day after the referendum.

The Brits know what they were doing.  When I want to read something, I also ask a question in Google, but I know the issue.  Just a way of pulling up.

BTW, it was not "immigrants", there was an unspoken word "Islamic" immigrants.  Many mosques in the UK preach hatred and the Brits finally have had enough!

Kari posted:

The point has been made about non-quantifiable factors like Immigration in the referendum vote.

The point of demographics is public knowledge - the Hispanic, Black and Asian voter registration makes up 27% of the US electorate. That leaves whites at 73%. If Hillary gets 24% of the non-white votes that’s a 23% margin among whites that the Donald will have to make up.

 

So if we shift from the demographics to non-quantifiable factors, we can take a look at the lessons of the Referendum held in Britain a couple days ago. Brexit showed that the voters who turned out, by a margin of 52 – 48 were pissed at colored people coming into their country and taking jobs. So 2 objects arise – Immigration and Globalization (for the US think Trade Pacts). I will even throw in another one and that is Wall St.

Tell me though how do these non-quantifiable factors intersect with the demographics?

 

Think about this also. Trump is broke and with not much of an organization. So both the ground game (retail campaigning) and the air game (media ads) are not good for him. So the polls show he’s hanging around and he hasn’t started spending his own money yet (he’s been known as a tight wad), so maybe for Trump all those negatives are good.

But you still have to make these intersect with the demographics. You see the Donald has solidified the Republican base already – that’s why he’s not doing badly in Ohio and Pennsylvania – rust belt states, with a lot of high-school educated whites. However he’s doing badly in a diversified state like Florida. Hillary is still to solidify her base while Bernie is still hanging around.

But man I keep coming back to the reality of the known factors

From what I remember, all your  detailed analysis said Trump would top-out below 25% and be history.  Well, we are where we are.  Trump's aim was o get out he disgruntled White base.  Now he is switching gears to the General.  I'm sure he will pull off a coup with the VP selection and the convention will be a big how and tell.

Trump broke is a mystical Kari delusion and wishful thinking.  He does have to ramp up his ground game but does not want to spend too much ammo so early.  What is being said now will hardly be remembered come November.

Trump is allowing everyone to run wild over his taxes and other disclosure issues, he will hit them on the issues which matter, the Economy, Security and Immigration [Islamic].  He will then surprise everyone with some limited disclosures and shut that down but then follow up with a blitz krieg on the three issues.  By then, it might be too late for Hillary to pivot!

ba$eman posted:

From what I remember, all your  detailed analysis said Trump would top-out below 25% and be history.  Well, we are where we are.  Trump's aim was o get out he disgruntled White base.  Now he is switching gears to the General.  I'm sure he will pull off a coup with the VP selection and the convention will be a big how and tell.

Trump broke is a mystical Kari delusion and wishful thinking.  He does have to ramp up his ground game but does not want to spend too much ammo so early.  What is being said now will hardly be remembered come November.

Trump is allowing everyone to run wild over his taxes and other disclosure issues, he will hit them on the issues which matter, the Economy, Security and Immigration [Islamic].  He will then surprise everyone with some limited disclosures and shut that down but then follow up with a blitz krieg on the three issues.  By then, it might be too late for Hillary to pivot!

.......said Trump would top-out below 25% and be history.

hat was the Republican Primary....and he got more than 25% after the others dropped out and Republicans finally rally around him - a natural process.

 .....he will hit them on the issues which matter, the Economy, Security and Immigration [Islamic].

Trump is yet to roll out policies on taxes and manufacturing other than to talk wildly opposing things such as taxing the rich more, taxing those with businesses in China and Mexico, taxing the rich less (yes, see how contradictory he is), raising tariffs 35% on imports from China and Mexico.

Trump wants to get rid of NATO.

Build a wall that would cost $4 bn then $10 bn then $24 bn the make Mexico pay by raising tariffs on their imports ( so laughable) with no action against US exports to the rest of the world (we are big and bad). Takes credit for terrorist killings on American soil and rop in the polls.

Deport 11 million people - yeah, he will hire Agents with his monopoly money - this tight wad.

If the above is not being a douche-bag then Ba$eman is the smartest thing since Einstein.

ba$eman posted:

seignet posted:

Maybe the force that is behind Trump will do something and keep away non-whites from the polls.

The man is charmed.

Destiny does cause some confusion for the simple minded. All the energies against Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan couldn't prevail.

America is a great country. So far, its leaders were like the Greeks, cultured. 

Too many enemies at its gates, time for a Barbarian. 

Trump is timing his attacks.  Everyone made a fuss over his lack of commentary on BREXIT, well the average American could care less.  The stock market went down 3+%, so what, it will recover, it's all panic selling.

Three key issues deciding the elections, the Economy, Security and Immigration.  He leads big on the economy.  He needs to work a strategy on Security and Immigration as on both, Hillary has her kinks.  Of critical importance also, he needs to up his ratings in Florida.

My understanding from contacts in his camp, he intends to make a big splash at the convention as it will be the most watched event in American history.  Trump is clever, he is picking his fights and is much more on the ball than letting people believe.  He is saving up for a "blitz krieg"!

THere is nothing clever about trump. He is a loudmouthed gasbag. His empty promises will not resonate with the educated class. He needs some 65 percent of whites to win. That is not possible

Kari posted:

ba$eman posted:

From what I remember, all your  detailed analysis said Trump would top-out below 25% and be history.  Well, we are where we are.  Trump's aim was o get out he disgruntled White base.  Now he is switching gears to the General.  I'm sure he will pull off a coup with the VP selection and the convention will be a big how and tell.

Trump broke is a mystical Kari delusion and wishful thinking.  He does have to ramp up his ground game but does not want to spend too much ammo so early.  What is being said now will hardly be remembered come November.

Trump is allowing everyone to run wild over his taxes and other disclosure issues, he will hit them on the issues which matter, the Economy, Security and Immigration [Islamic].  He will then surprise everyone with some limited disclosures and shut that down but then follow up with a blitz krieg on the three issues.  By then, it might be too late for Hillary to pivot!

.......said Trump would top-out below 25% and be history.

hat was the Republican Primary....and he got more than 25% after the others dropped out and Republicans finally rally around him - a natural process.

 .....he will hit them on the issues which matter, the Economy, Security and Immigration [Islamic].

Trump is yet to roll out policies on taxes and manufacturing other than to talk wildly opposing things such as taxing the rich more, taxing those with businesses in China and Mexico, taxing the rich less (yes, see how contradictory he is), raising tariffs 35% on imports from China and Mexico.

Trump wants to get rid of NATO.

Build a wall that would cost $4 bn then $10 bn then $24 bn the make Mexico pay by raising tariffs on their imports ( so laughable) with no action against US exports to the rest of the world (we are big and bad). Takes credit for terrorist killings on American soil and rop in the polls.

 

Deport 11 million people - yeah, he will hire Agents with his monopoly money - this tight wad.

 

If the above is not being a douche-bag then Ba$eman is the smartest thing since Einstein.

Most of these are lies or misconstrued!