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Historic trends, statistics, and organization indicate that the PPP is the strongest political party at the polls.

Elections are always about which is the better party - the Presidency merely follows this question - and not about a referendum about the incumbent. The APNU has yet to remake itself from the image of the old PNC and thus doesn't figure more than its traditional vote. That traditional has been erode by the upstart AFC and will continue to be so as the electorate becomes more familiar and comfortable with the AFC's leadership.

There are two things that continue to add to the ascendancy of the AFC - (i) the changing demographic. By that I mean the electorate is younger and some of the form voters (tribal constituents) would have emigrated; and (ii) the general incidence of a trend where the majority of Guyanese doesn't feel that their lot is better in the last 5 years.

There has been two trends tracking in this forum about what's important in November. One is the corruption of the PPP leadership - there is a litany of facts that they should not be proud of. The other is the defections - open and implicit among PPP party stalwarts. While the tribal voting pattern may be inured to the former, much has been made of Moses Nagamootoo's resignation and subsequent charges and counter-charges.

So to recap - the current leadership's corrupt governance and ineffective direction of the economy does not do it harm because of the tribal pattern at the polls, aided by continued obstinacy of a PNC party that refuses to decouple itself from its inglorious past. A changing demographic that points to an ascendancy of the AFC; and now Moses. While some may seek to diminish the latter, it is impactfull given the heat it has generated.

So here's to Chief. You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes. One trend I'm tracking is that the PPP/C doesn't seem to have a dance partner come post-election. Thus with a hung result a coalition of convenience may emerge with the AFC and APNU. Van--West, Moses, Prak, Trotman on one side and Donald, Rohee, Gail on the other with their built-in tribalism - it's shaping up to be a watershed election.

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Kari is simply asking GNI Members to have a Civilised dialog about Guyana's Election. Correct me if I am wromg Kari.

Kari, You made some valid points. However, there is a lot of TALK about Corruption and Pensions and other items but when we take a close look at the FACTS, we find out that it has to do with LIES and misinformation.

With regards to the younger Voters, we have to wait and see since MOST may be voting for the first time. However, looking at the large group of Young People at the PPP Rallies is very encouraging for the PPP.
Nehru
quote:
Originally posted by Nehru:
Kari is simply asking GNI Members to have a Civilised dialog about Guyana's Election. Correct me if I am wromg Kari.

Kari, You made some valid points. However, there is a lot of TALK about Corruption and Pensions and other items but when we take a close look at the FACTS, we find out that it has to do with LIES and misinformation.

With regards to the younger Voters, we have to wait and see since MOST may be voting for the first time. However, looking at the large group of Young People at the PPP Rallies is very encouraging for the PPP.


HELP!!! somebody hijacked Nehru's computer! HELP HELP!
FM
quote:
PAVI: Kari, You made some valid points. However, there is a lot of TALK about Corruption and Pensions and other items but when we take a close look at the FACTS, we find out that it has to do with LIES and misinformation.


The pension is $3 mill = money + perks. Do you deny that? And there is no upper cap. Deny that?
T
quote:
Originally posted by Nehru:
Kari is simply asking GNI Members to have a Civilised dialog about Guyana's Election. Correct me if I am wromg Kari.

Kari, You made some valid points. However, there is a lot of TALK about Corruption and Pensions and other items but when we take a close look at the FACTS, we find out that it has to do with LIES and misinformation.

With regards to the younger Voters, we have to wait and see since MOST may be voting for the first time. However, looking at the large group of Young People at the PPP Rallies is very encouraging for the PPP.


wait...no WATA WASH SHITTA BATTY comment Big Grin
FM
That has been verified and finalised. partybanana partybanana
quote:
Originally posted by raymond:
quote:
Originally posted by Nehru:
Kari is simply asking GNI Members to have a Civilised dialog about Guyana's Election. Correct me if I am wromg Kari.

Kari, You made some valid points. However, there is a lot of TALK about Corruption and Pensions and other items but when we take a close look at the FACTS, we find out that it has to do with LIES and misinformation.

With regards to the younger Voters, we have to wait and see since MOST may be voting for the first time. However, looking at the large group of Young People at the PPP Rallies is very encouraging for the PPP.


wait...no WATA WASH SHITTA BATTY comment Big Grin
Nehru
I would not answer this question on Kari's Post. yippie yippie
quote:
Originally posted by TK_REDUX:
quote:
PAVI: Kari, You made some valid points. However, there is a lot of TALK about Corruption and Pensions and other items but when we take a close look at the FACTS, we find out that it has to do with LIES and misinformation.


The pension is $3 mill = money + perks. Do you deny that? And there is no upper cap. Deny that?
Nehru
quote:
Originally posted by Kari:
Historic trends, statistics, and organization indicate that the PPP is the strongest political party at the polls.

Elections are always about which is the better party - the Presidency merely follows this question - and not about a referendum about the incumbent. The APNU has yet to remake itself from the image of the old PNC and thus doesn't figure more than its traditional vote. That traditional has been erode by the upstart AFC and will continue to be so as the electorate becomes more familiar and comfortable with the AFC's leadership.

There are two things that continue to add to the ascendancy of the AFC - (i) the changing demographic. By that I mean the electorate is younger and some of the form voters (tribal constituents) would have emigrated; and (ii) the general incidence of a trend where the majority of Guyanese doesn't feel that their lot is better in the last 5 years.

There has been two trends tracking in this forum about what's important in November. One is the corruption of the PPP leadership - there is a litany of facts that they should not be proud of. The other is the defections - open and implicit among PPP party stalwarts. While the tribal voting pattern may be inured to the former, much has been made of Moses Nagamootoo's resignation and subsequent charges and counter-charges.

So to recap - the current leadership's corrupt governance and ineffective direction of the economy does not do it harm because of the tribal pattern at the polls, aided by continued obstinacy of a PNC party that refuses to decouple itself from its inglorious past. A changing demographic that points to an ascendancy of the AFC; and now Moses. While some may seek to diminish the latter, it is impactfull given the heat it has generated.

So here's to Chief. You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes. One trend I'm tracking is that the PPP/C doesn't seem to have a dance partner come post-election. Thus with a hung result a coalition of convenience may emerge with the AFC and APNU. Van--West, Moses, Prak, Trotman on one side and Donald, Rohee, Gail on the other with their built-in tribalism - it's shaping up to be a watershed election.
This analysis suffers from one basic failure; there exist an almost tribal primordialism among those who will vote for the PPP and the PNC ( APNU). They can be assured of at least 60% of the votes sharing a 35% to 25% count respectively.

Culling that herd with facts, about their social condition, or historical corruption of in their party will not soften their willful ignorance much. And they will turn out to vote because they are acculturated to do so per their morbid fear of each other. The option to peal away votes here reside with an appeal to the young. They make up a significant portion of first time voters and they can make a difference.

The AFC knows this and that is why the have young voices as opposed to the calcified relics in the PPP and PNC. The AFC is playing for the remaining 40% who can make the difference. Winning for the AFC is a hard but scalable climb. They must combat the Indian and Black Sheep who follow party, the culture of Patronage and nepotism that will glue some to the PPP ( they only give lip service to merit) and the bead trading of Amerinds.

Fortunately there are two options available to the AFC to declare a win. Winning the majority or Making the PPP a minority government. Both options will give us a morning in Guyana. We had 6 decades of night.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Nehru:
Yeah RIGHT, Van West and Flour Man Sase young like young ducklings. yippie yippie
The more you write the more you make the same point you are indeed a moron. You have nothing to add except constant senseless rants and disparaging remarks about this person or that on the presumption you are of better stock. What may I ask that is? You smell like a low lifer
FM
And you smell like a Buck man on PIWARI!!!
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
quote:
Originally posted by Nehru:
Yeah RIGHT, Van West and Flour Man Sase young like young ducklings. yippie yippie
The more you write the more you make the same point you are indeed a moron. You have nothing to add except constant senseless rants and disparaging remarks about this person or that on the presumption you are of better stock. What may I ask that is? You smell like a low lifer
Nehru
quote:
Originally posted by Nehru:
Kari is simply asking GNI Members to have a Civilised dialog about Guyana's Election. Correct me if I am wromg Kari.

Kari, You made some valid points. However, there is a lot of TALK about Corruption and Pensions and other items but when we take a close look at the FACTS, we find out that it has to do with LIES and misinformation.

With regards to the younger Voters, we have to wait and see since MOST may be voting for the first time. However, looking at the large group of Young People at the PPP Rallies is very encouraging for the PPP.

Ok, let's leave other coruption aside, could you state the FACTS regarding the Prezzy pension package?
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Nehru:
And you smell like a Buck man on PIWARI!!!
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
quote:
Originally posted by Nehru:
Yeah RIGHT, Van West and Flour Man Sase young like young ducklings. yippie yippie
The more you write the more you make the same point you are indeed a moron. You have nothing to add except constant senseless rants and disparaging remarks about this person or that on the presumption you are of better stock. What may I ask that is? You smell like a low lifer
I would like to know what what a buck man smells like? Are you sure it is not the stench of your own racist mind?
FM
quote:
Kari: So here's to Chief. You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes. One trend I'm tracking is that the PPP/C doesn't seem to have a dance partner come post-election. Thus with a hung result a coalition of convenience may emerge with the AFC and APNU. Van--West, Moses, Prak, Trotman on one side and Donald, Rohee, Gail on the other with their built-in tribalism - it's shaping up to be a watershed election.


My understanding is that any such coalition must include the party with the highest tally, which will most likely be PPP/C. Granted TUF does not garner enough votes to become its preferred partner, PPP/C would have a nightmare negotiating with either APNU or AFC to form the new govt. Failing that, I believe some kind of Emergency govt would be put in place until new elections are held. I hope someone could clarify this for us.
FM
No need to research that. WE ALL know PPP gun WIN.
quote:
Originally posted by Spice Girl:
quote:
Kari: So here's to Chief. You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes. One trend I'm tracking is that the PPP/C doesn't seem to have a dance partner come post-election. Thus with a hung result a coalition of convenience may emerge with the AFC and APNU. Van--West, Moses, Prak, Trotman on one side and Donald, Rohee, Gail on the other with their built-in tribalism - it's shaping up to be a watershed election.


My understanding is that any such coalition must include the party with the highest tally, which will most likely be PPP/C. Granted TUF does not garner enough votes to become its preferred partner, PPP/C would have a nightmare negotiating with either APNU or AFC to form the new govt. Failing that, I believe some kind of Emergency govt would be put in place until new elections are held. I hope someone could clarify this for us.
Nehru
quote:
Originally posted by Spice Girl:
quote:
Kari: So here's to Chief. You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes. One trend I'm tracking is that the PPP/C doesn't seem to have a dance partner come post-election. Thus with a hung result a coalition of convenience may emerge with the AFC and APNU. Van--West, Moses, Prak, Trotman on one side and Donald, Rohee, Gail on the other with their built-in tribalism - it's shaping up to be a watershed election.


My understanding is that any such coalition must include the party with the highest tally, which will most likely be PPP/C. Granted TUF does not garner enough votes to become its preferred partner, PPP/C would have a nightmare negotiating with either APNU or AFC to form the new govt. Failing that, I believe some kind of Emergency govt would be put in place until new elections are held. I hope someone could clarify this for us.
The largest vote count forms the government.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
quote:
Originally posted by Spice Girl:
quote:
Kari: So here's to Chief. You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes. One trend I'm tracking is that the PPP/C doesn't seem to have a dance partner come post-election. Thus with a hung result a coalition of convenience may emerge with the AFC and APNU. Van--West, Moses, Prak, Trotman on one side and Donald, Rohee, Gail on the other with their built-in tribalism - it's shaping up to be a watershed election.


My understanding is that any such coalition must include the party with the highest tally, which will most likely be PPP/C. Granted TUF does not garner enough votes to become its preferred partner, PPP/C would have a nightmare negotiating with either APNU or AFC to form the new govt. Failing that, I believe some kind of Emergency govt would be put in place until new elections are held. I hope someone could clarify this for us.
The largest vote count forms the government.


A party must have over 50% to form the govt; otherwise, there must be a coalition but the party with highest tally must be part of any caolition. Such I was reliably informed.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Spice Girl:
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
quote:
Originally posted by Spice Girl:
quote:
Kari: So here's to Chief. You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes. One trend I'm tracking is that the PPP/C doesn't seem to have a dance partner come post-election. Thus with a hung result a coalition of convenience may emerge with the AFC and APNU. Van--West, Moses, Prak, Trotman on one side and Donald, Rohee, Gail on the other with their built-in tribalism - it's shaping up to be a watershed election.


My understanding is that any such coalition must include the party with the highest tally, which will most likely be PPP/C. Granted TUF does not garner enough votes to become its preferred partner, PPP/C would have a nightmare negotiating with either APNU or AFC to form the new govt. Failing that, I believe some kind of Emergency govt would be put in place until new elections are held. I hope someone could clarify this for us.
The largest vote count forms the government.


A party must have over 50% to form the govt; otherwise, there must be a coalition but the party with highest tally must be part of any caolition. Such I was reliably informed.
Where did you get that from? Coalitions after the elections are not allowed by this system.
FM
The AFC is a party of 'academia'
The APNU is a new coalition still unknown to many, but may see a reduction in its PNC strongholds - some to AFC and some to PPP.

The PPP is a grassroots party and with having governed the country for a number of years, and making improvements since the PNC days, people do not forget. They have seen the progress and they know that, in spite of the perceived corruption (and which country does not have corruption!), people know where their bread is buttered.

My prediction is that AFC will gain some votes this election, adding some of the youths to their camp. However, the PPP will get a majority. This is based on the fact that Guyanese are not stupid, they are comfortable with the known, proven track record of the PPP/C. Why fix it when it ain't broken.

It is not required for Ramotar to enter into a debate with 'academia", but it is better for him to go out and meet the people, tell them what the PPP/C has been doing and what plans it has ahead.
C
quote:
Originally posted by Alexander:
If all things are equal it has to be the PPP and someone else. Then you may hear of a constitutional problem and new elections will be called. The PPP of course is determined to avoid this at all costs but as of now Moses could do a lot of damage.


That's why PPP appear to be in panic mode. AFC can cause an upset here. This election is now a battle for PPP to secure more than 50% of the votes. Thanks to Jagdeo.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Kari:

You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes.


One perspective on the current election issues.

However, when the "dust" is settled, the results are more likely to be ..

55% or more == PPP/C -- majority government.

45% or less == PNCR, AFC and other parties.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
quote:
Originally posted by Spice Girl:
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
quote:
Originally posted by Spice Girl:
quote:
Kari: So here's to Chief. You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes. One trend I'm tracking is that the PPP/C doesn't seem to have a dance partner come post-election. Thus with a hung result a coalition of convenience may emerge with the AFC and APNU. Van--West, Moses, Prak, Trotman on one side and Donald, Rohee, Gail on the other with their built-in tribalism - it's shaping up to be a watershed election.


My understanding is that any such coalition must include the party with the highest tally, which will most likely be PPP/C. Granted TUF does not garner enough votes to become its preferred partner, PPP/C would have a nightmare negotiating with either APNU or AFC to form the new govt. Failing that, I believe some kind of Emergency govt would be put in place until new elections are held. I hope someone could clarify this for us.
The largest vote count forms the government.


A party must have over 50% to form the govt; otherwise, there must be a coalition but the party with highest tally must be part of any caolition. Such I was reliably informed.
Where did you get that from? Coalitions after the elections are not allowed by this system.


They can do what the England did.
C
quote:
Originally posted by Demerara_Guy:
quote:
Originally posted by Kari:

You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes.


One perspective on the current election issues.

However, when the "dust" is settled, the results are more likely to be ..

55% or more == PPP/C -- majority government.

45% or less == PNCR, AFC and other parties.


I predict the same. Guyanese are smart and they know progress when they see it.

I am confident that they will trust the PPP/C to carry the shining light forward.
C
quote:
Originally posted by Catherine:
quote:
Originally posted by Demerara_Guy:
quote:
Originally posted by Kari:

You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes.


One perspective on the current election issues.

However, when the "dust" is settled, the results are more likely to be ..

55% or more == PPP/C -- majority government.

45% or less == PNCR, AFC and other parties.


I predict the same. Guyanese are smart and they know progress when they see it.

I am confident that they will trust the PPP/C to carry the shining light forward.


Predicting? Both of you sound more like PRAYING!
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Spice Girl:
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
quote:
Originally posted by Spice Girl:
quote:
Kari: So here's to Chief. You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes. One trend I'm tracking is that the PPP/C doesn't seem to have a dance partner come post-election. Thus with a hung result a coalition of convenience may emerge with the AFC and APNU. Van--West, Moses, Prak, Trotman on one side and Donald, Rohee, Gail on the other with their built-in tribalism - it's shaping up to be a watershed election.


My understanding is that any such coalition must include the party with the highest tally, which will most likely be PPP/C. Granted TUF does not garner enough votes to become its preferred partner, PPP/C would have a nightmare negotiating with either APNU or AFC to form the new govt. Failing that, I believe some kind of Emergency govt would be put in place until new elections are held. I hope someone could clarify this for us.
The largest vote count forms the government.


A party must have over 50% to form the govt; otherwise, there must be a coalition but the party with highest tally must be part of any caolition. Such I was reliably informed.


Spice Girl are you sure about that? I thought the party which gets the highest percentage forms the govt regardless? I stand corrected, however.
T
quote:
Originally posted by Catherine:
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
quote:
Originally posted by Spice Girl:
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
quote:
Originally posted by Spice Girl:
quote:
Kari: So here's to Chief. You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes. One trend I'm tracking is that the PPP/C doesn't seem to have a dance partner come post-election. Thus with a hung result a coalition of convenience may emerge with the AFC and APNU. Van--West, Moses, Prak, Trotman on one side and Donald, Rohee, Gail on the other with their built-in tribalism - it's shaping up to be a watershed election.


My understanding is that any such coalition must include the party with the highest tally, which will most likely be PPP/C. Granted TUF does not garner enough votes to become its preferred partner, PPP/C would have a nightmare negotiating with either APNU or AFC to form the new govt. Failing that, I believe some kind of Emergency govt would be put in place until new elections are held. I hope someone could clarify this for us.
The largest vote count forms the government.


A party must have over 50% to form the govt; otherwise, there must be a coalition but the party with highest tally must be part of any caolition. Such I was reliably informed.
Where did you get that from? Coalitions after the elections are not allowed by this system.


They can do what the England did.
English traditions allow it. Our constitution prohibits it.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Catherine:
The AFC is a party of 'academia'
The APNU is a new coalition still unknown to many, but may see a reduction in its PNC strongholds - some to AFC and some to PPP.

The PPP is a grassroots party and with having governed the country for a number of years, and making improvements since the PNC days, people do not forget. They have seen the progress and they know that, in spite of the perceived corruption (and which country does not have corruption!), people know where their bread is buttered.

My prediction is that AFC will gain some votes this election, adding some of the youths to their camp. However, the PPP will get a majority. This is based on the fact that Guyanese are not stupid, they are comfortable with the known, proven track record of the PPP/C. Why fix it when it ain't broken.

It is not required for Ramotar to enter into a debate with 'academia", but it is better for him to go out and meet the people, tell them what the PPP/C has been doing and what plans it has ahead.


It's been a long time since I read such convoluted trash parading as intelligent talk.
T
quote:
TK: Spice Girl are you sure about that? I thought the party which gets the highest percentage forms the govt regardless? I stand corrected, however.


I discussed this with a top party official. He emphatically stated that there cannot be a minority govt (with less than 50.1% votes. That's why there must be a coalition. Failing to arrive at an agreement, after 5 days, I believe there will be some kind of an Emergency govt until fresh elections are held. Let's hear from GR.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Catherine:
quote:
Originally posted by Demerara_Guy:
quote:
Originally posted by Kari:

You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes.


One perspective on the current election issues.

However, when the "dust" is settled, the results are more likely to be ..

55% or more == PPP/C -- majority government.

45% or less == PNCR, AFC and other parties.


I predict the same. Guyanese are smart and they know progress when they see it.

I am confident that they will trust the PPP/C to carry the shining light forward.


PPP/C indeed has to make changed/adjustments, like all other political parties.

However, despite people changing political parties, the PPP/C is better than the others.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by TK_REDUX:
quote:
Originally posted by Spice Girl:
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
quote:
Originally posted by Spice Girl:
quote:
Kari: So here's to Chief. You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes. One trend I'm tracking is that the PPP/C doesn't seem to have a dance partner come post-election. Thus with a hung result a coalition of convenience may emerge with the AFC and APNU. Van--West, Moses, Prak, Trotman on one side and Donald, Rohee, Gail on the other with their built-in tribalism - it's shaping up to be a watershed election.


My understanding is that any such coalition must include the party with the highest tally, which will most likely be PPP/C. Granted TUF does not garner enough votes to become its preferred partner, PPP/C would have a nightmare negotiating with either APNU or AFC to form the new govt. Failing that, I believe some kind of Emergency govt would be put in place until new elections are held. I hope someone could clarify this for us.
The largest vote count forms the government.


A party must have over 50% to form the govt; otherwise, there must be a coalition but the party with highest tally must be part of any caolition. Such I was reliably informed.


Spice Girl are you sure about that? I thought the party which gets the highest percentage forms the govt regardless? I stand corrected, however.


To comprehend, here is a grusome reminder:

In 1964 the electoral system of First Past the Post was changed to that of Proportional Representation with 53 members in a uni-cameral house due to the abolition of the Senate. The first elections held under this system resulted in the following outcome:-

* People's Progressive Party (PPP) 25 seats.
* People's National Congress (PNC) 22 seats.
* United Force (UF) 06 seats.

Since no party gained 51 per cent of the vote, a coalition government was formed between the PNC and UF with Mr. Forbes Burnham as the Premier and Mr. Peter D’Aguiar, Leader of the UF as Deputy Premier.
C
quote:
Originally posted by Spice Girl:
quote:
TK: Spice Girl are you sure about that? I thought the party which gets the highest percentage forms the govt regardless? I stand corrected, however.


I discussed this with a top party official. He emphatically stated that there cannot be a minority govt (with less than 50.1% votes. That's why there must be a coalition. Failing to arrive at an agreement, after 5 days, I believe there will be some kind of an Emergency govt until fresh elections are held. Let's hear from GR.


Thanks Spicy...I am not a Constitutional expert.
T
quote:
Originally posted by Spice Girl:

I discussed this with a top party official. He emphatically stated that there cannot be a minority govt (with less than 50.1% votes. That's why there must be a coalition. Failing to arrive at an agreement, after 5 days, I believe there will be some kind of an Emergency govt until fresh elections are held. Let's hear from GR.


Spice paranoid Janet changed the consitution to prevent AFTER election coalitions, so fresh in her mind was what the PNC/UF pulled against her.

Others have stated a minority win will lead to a consitutional crisis.

In any acse I dont see the AFc joining the PPP, filled as it is with so many disgrunted ex PPPites who will be swallowe and spat out as the AFc will most likely be the junior partner.

More likely the AFC and the PNC will bid etheir time and call a no confidence vote around the time that Ramotar has shown Guyanese what an idiot he is. Unless as president he continues to let Jagdeo speak up for him.

Whats good is the PPP will not get 67% of the votes so will not be able to chnage the constitution even if they win w/o cooperation from the opposition.
FM
TK, I believe that PPP agreed to the term limit provision for the coalition make up to avaoid a repeat of 1964. As it stands, although PPP is not likely to win more than 50%, it may still get the highest # votes. The problem for PPP, if TUF cannot make up the difference, is which is the lesser of its two demons---AFC or APNU.
FM

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