Historic trends, statistics, and organization indicate that the PPP is the strongest political party at the polls.
Elections are always about which is the better party - the Presidency merely follows this question - and not about a referendum about the incumbent. The APNU has yet to remake itself from the image of the old PNC and thus doesn't figure more than its traditional vote. That traditional has been erode by the upstart AFC and will continue to be so as the electorate becomes more familiar and comfortable with the AFC's leadership.
There are two things that continue to add to the ascendancy of the AFC - (i) the changing demographic. By that I mean the electorate is younger and some of the form voters (tribal constituents) would have emigrated; and (ii) the general incidence of a trend where the majority of Guyanese doesn't feel that their lot is better in the last 5 years.
There has been two trends tracking in this forum about what's important in November. One is the corruption of the PPP leadership - there is a litany of facts that they should not be proud of. The other is the defections - open and implicit among PPP party stalwarts. While the tribal voting pattern may be inured to the former, much has been made of Moses Nagamootoo's resignation and subsequent charges and counter-charges.
So to recap - the current leadership's corrupt governance and ineffective direction of the economy does not do it harm because of the tribal pattern at the polls, aided by continued obstinacy of a PNC party that refuses to decouple itself from its inglorious past. A changing demographic that points to an ascendancy of the AFC; and now Moses. While some may seek to diminish the latter, it is impactfull given the heat it has generated.
So here's to Chief. You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes. One trend I'm tracking is that the PPP/C doesn't seem to have a dance partner come post-election. Thus with a hung result a coalition of convenience may emerge with the AFC and APNU. Van--West, Moses, Prak, Trotman on one side and Donald, Rohee, Gail on the other with their built-in tribalism - it's shaping up to be a watershed election.
Elections are always about which is the better party - the Presidency merely follows this question - and not about a referendum about the incumbent. The APNU has yet to remake itself from the image of the old PNC and thus doesn't figure more than its traditional vote. That traditional has been erode by the upstart AFC and will continue to be so as the electorate becomes more familiar and comfortable with the AFC's leadership.
There are two things that continue to add to the ascendancy of the AFC - (i) the changing demographic. By that I mean the electorate is younger and some of the form voters (tribal constituents) would have emigrated; and (ii) the general incidence of a trend where the majority of Guyanese doesn't feel that their lot is better in the last 5 years.
There has been two trends tracking in this forum about what's important in November. One is the corruption of the PPP leadership - there is a litany of facts that they should not be proud of. The other is the defections - open and implicit among PPP party stalwarts. While the tribal voting pattern may be inured to the former, much has been made of Moses Nagamootoo's resignation and subsequent charges and counter-charges.
So to recap - the current leadership's corrupt governance and ineffective direction of the economy does not do it harm because of the tribal pattern at the polls, aided by continued obstinacy of a PNC party that refuses to decouple itself from its inglorious past. A changing demographic that points to an ascendancy of the AFC; and now Moses. While some may seek to diminish the latter, it is impactfull given the heat it has generated.
So here's to Chief. You're looking at an election result that may not give any one party more than 50% of the votes. One trend I'm tracking is that the PPP/C doesn't seem to have a dance partner come post-election. Thus with a hung result a coalition of convenience may emerge with the AFC and APNU. Van--West, Moses, Prak, Trotman on one side and Donald, Rohee, Gail on the other with their built-in tribalism - it's shaping up to be a watershed election.