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FM
Former Member

Misrepresentation of the Unemployment rate for Region 10 by the Opposition

I feel utterly obligated to provide this information to the Guyanese public, as I do hold strongly that conflicts can only be resolved when we have the facts straight, as it allows for proper debate. Between 1970 and 2002 Guyana’s unemployment rate fluctuated between 11.7 and 16.8 percent. During the protracted economic crisis of the 1980s unemployment rate stood at 16.8%. In 2002, a study done by the Private Sector Commission (Technical Information Bulletin No. 4, April 2007) showed that Region 10 unemployment rate stood at 15.2% while Region 8 was 19.5%. Now consider the analysis below:
Sensitivity Analysis
If based on historical trend we put the current unemployment rate at 16.8%, equal to that of the 1980s and we maintained the regional unemployment rates at base, the following holds:
Est. Labour Force 2011 = 289,000
Est. Unemployment Rate 2011 (16.8%) = 48,704

Region 10 Labour Force 2002 = 14,164
Region 10 Unemployment rate 2002 (15.2%) = 2,146

From 2002, total population grew on average at 0.3% per annum. Though highly unlikely, if the total and regions’ labour force grew at the same rate, them:

Region 10 Labour Force 2011 (0.3% per annum) = 14,683

If everyone that joined the Labour force since 2002 in Region 10 is still without a job, this implies that

Region 10: Number Unemployed in 2011 is (2,146 + (14, 683 – 14, 164) = 2,665

Therefore:

Region 10: Unemployment Rate as of 2011 (2665/14683) = 18.15%

Not that it is next to impossible for the unemployment rate to be above 18.75, noting the overly pessimistic assumption underlined above. With this I urge all those involved in the current debate to update their knowledge and informed their remarks.

NB: All data taken from Private Sector Commission Technical Bulletin and Crossed checked with the Bureau of Statistics and IMF/WB for consistency.

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Do yourself a favor.  Take the adult male population between 25 and 60.  Find out how many are employed or self employed.  Those who fall into neither category are most likely unemployed. 

 

 I exclude the adult female population because there will be some who chose not to work, if married, staying home to take care of their kids, so it will be more difficult to determine who is nor working because they cant find work, or chose not to work because of family obligations.

 

This will be a truer statement of what the true employment situation in Linden then the where ever you got your stats.

 

Also note that many of the socalled self employed are actually unemployed eople scuffling a living to get by.  Many street vendors would prefer to do something else but resort to that as they must eat and pay for their housing.

 

People play games with this socalled "labor force, even here in the USA so I am not impressed with your 14,000 figure.  There are 41k people living in region 10, which wioll suggest maybe 25k of working age. Given that BOSAI employs fewer than 1,000 and there are few other sources of economic activity in Linden what do the remainder of those of working age do.

 

Note that many Lindeners have been forced to leave to seek employment in the gold and timber fields, and others having moved to the Caribbean.  This being in addition to the normal migration to North America.  Linden was set up to hous ethe bauxite industry and traditionally attracted many of ECB and WCB...but no lnger can it play this role.

 

When you do this analysis you can get back to us attempting to paint a bouyant picture.

 

Any way 18% is a disgracefully high number,especially as it excludes the socalled "discouraged" workers.  Lacking a safety net Guyana isnt a country with discouraged workers, apart from those whose overseas realtives are so bountiful that they can afford not to work.

FM

I asked yesterday, how many registered voters registered in linden? You have  a flawed statistical instrument. The numbers are from 2002 and they do not reflect the reality a decade later. I do not know how many are unemployed in Linden but the number has to be a factor or two higher than you posted.

 

And this again is the PPP propaganda message. Those freeloaders have it good. The PPP has been good to them and they are ungrateful.

FM
Originally Posted by Stormborn:

I asked yesterday, how many registered voters registered in linden? You have  a flawed statistical instrument. The numbers are from 2002 and they do not reflect the reality a decade later. I do not know how many are unemployed in Linden but the number has to be a factor or two higher than you posted.

 

And this again is the PPP propaganda message. Those freeloaders have it good. The PPP has been good to them and they are ungrateful.

About 16k voted which will suggested maybe jst over 20k.  This also excludes those of voting age who arent registered.  Given the extreme demoralization of Lindeners I expect that there many in thet group.

 

The 14k laborforce is a gross under estimate.  And it also assumes that every one who is working is occupied full time. A street vendor selling sweets is "employed" but will quickly tell you that she ekes out a living doing this because she has no alternative.  So should be be considered employed. She might say that she is unemployed.

FM
Originally Posted by albert:

I have earned the ire of the two resident racists. One is a staunch PNC defender while the other is quite comfortable kissing Trotman's b@tty

If you want to know racists and racism check the PPP government you are a troll for. I am pointing out how easy you lie. The data above is as sound as the PPP are non racist.

FM
Originally Posted by albert:

I have earned the ire of the two resident racists. One is a staunch PNC defender while the other is quite comfortable kissing Trotman's b@tty

You're not important . . . stop deluding yourself, dummy.

 

In fact, you're not even a spear carrier . . . just expendable cannon fodder.

 

and . . . antimen should be a bit more careful when throwing around the term "b*tty"

FM

This is quite a hazardous exercise trying to extrapolate current unemployment from decade old data set. Unemployment has a cyclical component, a structural element and a frictional aspect. No one really knows what the overall unemployment is in Guyana. No one really what the rate in Linden is. Lack of data is a serious problem in Guyana. But it does allow the politicians to indulge in propaganda and misinformation. Barbados, Belize, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago now have quarterly unemployment and labor force participation. What is preventing Guyana from having the same?

FM
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by albert:

I have earned the ire of the two resident racists. One is a staunch PNC defender while the other is quite comfortable kissing Trotman's b@tty

You're not important . . . stop deluding yourself, dummy.

 

In fact, you're not even a spear carrier . . . just expendable cannon fodder.

 

and . . . antimen should be a bit more careful when throwing around the term "b*tty"

You looking fa company eh? Yuh stink p@ss Aunty like talk

FM
Originally Posted by Tar_K:

This is quite a hazardous exercise trying to extrapolate current unemployment from decade old data set. Unemployment has a cyclical component, a structural element and a frictional aspect. No one really knows what the overall unemployment is in Guyana. No one really what the rate in Linden is. Lack of data is a serious problem in Guyana. But it does allow the politicians to indulge in propaganda and misinformation. Barbados, Belize, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago now have quarterly unemployment and labor force participation. What is preventing Guyana from having the same?

Despite this TK we have had opposition politicians openly stating that Linden has an 80% unemployment rate.

FM
Originally Posted by albert:

By now the two resident racists should have inundated this topic with a plethora of information which proves otherwise. 

There is no obligation for anyone to disprove anything. You are supposed to meet the burden of proof but instead got Misir to hand off old data as usual to sell a lie. 10 year old data cannot be used to conclude on the present. That faulty data is basic to your conclusion.

 

The population of Linden is most certainly around 20, 000. I see in the press reference to 30 thousand. I pointed out that those who voted were 2000 more than you stated indicating your data is hopelessly in accurate.

 

By the way, this whole concocted data and your determined strategy to sell the story that these people have it good and are freeloaders backbiting on the hand that feeds them. It  is no more than a naked racist strategy to demonize a people for some political currency with your PPP sheep.

 

You cannot win back Nagamottoo's prodigals this way.  You have to change your whole habit of corrupt practices to win those back. You cannot fool all of the people all of the time. The Opposition only need 3 % of those wise to  your lies to have you in the dog house.

FM
Last edited by Former Member

Albert you are missing the point there brother.  The people are working but they do not have a living wage.  Their wages cannot sustain them and keep them from poverty. That is the problem.

Prashad
Originally Posted by Prashad:

Albert you are missing the point there brother.  The people are working but they do not have a living wage.  Their wages cannot sustain them and keep them from poverty. That is the problem.

Well the opposition and their surrogates are spreading far and wide the rumour that Linden has 80% unemployment. Their lie has to be exposed

FM
Originally Posted by albert:
 

Despite this TK we have had opposition politicians openly stating that Linden has an 80% unemployment rate.


And you are no more able to refute this claim than they are able to make it.  Unemployment in Linden is high. All agree on this.  You can now resume your debate as to whether it is 20% or 70%. 

FM
Originally Posted by albert:
Originally Posted by Prashad:

Albert you are missing the point there brother.  The people are working but they do not have a living wage.  Their wages cannot sustain them and keep them from poverty. That is the problem.

Well the opposition and their surrogates are spreading far and wide the rumour that Linden has 80% unemployment. Their lie has to be exposed

If that is what they say and it is wrong then you are obliged to demonstrate they are telling fibs. To this point you are banging your head against a rock and not proving a damn thing.

 

If they lie, then why should you lie? It is clear that you are lying since the numbers you provided is contrary to polling data. Both of you may be fudging the numbers to make a brighter case but it is already a grim circumstance even if 18% are unemployed. It is certainly higher than that.

FM
Originally Posted by albert:

By now the two resident racists should have inundated this topic with a plethora of information which proves otherwise. 


I guess if you mean PPP racists like you and others.  I agree. You should have furnished CREDIBLE data to suggest what the true unemployment rate is.  The opposition gave a number.  The PPP is too scared to respond to it.

FM

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