what does this mean . . . and whose polls are we talking about?
The polls also include the AFC polls. EVERY poll in Guyana has shown the PNC underperforming relative to how they finally perform.
and EVERY poll in Guyana tends to show Indian dissatisfaction with the PPP and significant support for third parties along with a large amount of "undecided"
ROAR used to poll a minimum of 7 to as high as 12-14 seats in Parliament. Then Indians would walk into the polling booth and remember the PNC's existence. Story done!
The election will be decided by
1. How many people in PNC strongholds who didn't vote in 2006 and in 2011 voting this time.
2. How many people in PPP strongholds register their protest against the PPP by simply not voting. We saw them of that in Regions 2 and 3 last time where Nagamootoo was less popular and so many simply decided not to vote.
3. The youth vote. Will they show up to vote, and will they be issue rather than race oriented? The youth vote is fickle I will add, and building a campaign relying on this group to be the rescue is risky. Their votes should be an additional element of victory, not THE element of victory.
4. The ethnic composition of who actually shows up to vote. If Indians are 45% of the voting age population, but many stay away from the polls then others, more disposed to the coalition, will carry the election.
Needless to say that it will be a very narrow margin of victory.
I note suddenly that the PPP chorus are no longer screaming 54%.