New elections could yield same results – Ramkarran

Ralph Ramkarran

- says stalemate causing disinterest among populace

“The Government and Opposition have to consider that there is a chance that elections held now with the same political line up will yield the same or similar results.”

Former PPP executive Ralph Ramkarran expressed this view in his writings on the “politics of elections” on his website conversationtree.org.
The former Speaker said that his statement has to be taken against the backdrop that no “economic or political progress is taking place in the country and the continuing stalemate is creating more disinterest among the entire electorate.”

According to Ramkarran, exacerbating the situation is the recent pronouncement by the Alliance for Change (AFC) contemplating a motion of no confidence against the Government.
“The complaint then was that the Minister of Finance violated the law when he spent some $4 billion that was not approved by the National Assembly during the debate of the Estimates. Since then a list of demands has been made. APNU, whose support is necessary for the success of such a motion, later said that it would be discussing the matter and may support it.”

He said further that the Government considered the statement to be a threat. “One headline screamed ‘DO IT.’ Another thundered, ‘I AM A WARRIOR.’ …President Ramotar’s testy reaction is surprising in view of the fact that clear hints have already been broadly given by him that new elections are on the agenda for consideration. This is the reason that local government elections are not being held.”

Ramkarran posited that the current political deadlock being resolved by elections should be on the agenda of all Guyanese and all “political forces,” but outlined that “elections being a way forward, which is the constitutional right of both sides, should not be the occasion for the display of ‘bad man’ politics, which should now be discarded as a feature of Guyana’s politics.

It ought to be an issue attracting careful consideration with the national interest being paramount.”
He outlined that currently the situation “is characterized by the inability of the Government to persuade the Opposition to support any major project, most legislation or most budgets in their entirety. Clearly both the Government and Opposition might feel that such a situation cannot continue indefinitely and that it might be in the interest of the nation to call new elections.”

“The fact that neither side has taken the necessary steps that would bring new elections, leads to the conclusion that neither is certain what the results would be. The national interest is one thing but partisan interest is a wholly different matter. The expressions of confidence by both sides at the potential outcome of new elections should be taken at face value and in the context of the need to keep supporters engaged.
No political party will ever say that it will lose or not do better than the last time. But the fact that no one has belled the cat is evidence of the uncertainty they feel.

The 2011 results is the first time in the history of free and fair elections that no party has obtained an absolute majority either of seats or votes. Thus no one can be sure that 2011 was a flash in the pan or a signal of what is to come” said Ramkarran.
According to Ramkarran, the state of the economy has always played a defining role in political developments.

“While PPP governments can boast of substantial progress in many areas, there is still a sufficiently large group of its supporters who have not been touched in any significant way by economic and other developments.
These are the people who can cause the results of 2011 to be repeated because their situation has not changed since 2011. The Opposition’s supporters will not react against their parties because of the economy. But they may react at the impotence of the Opposition by a display of apathy on Election Day.”