New Hampshire Poll Has Jeb Bush First and Donald Trump Second
Jeb Bush, who is struggling in the polls in Iowa, may find his salvation in New Hampshire. Yet another poll of New Hampshire voters shows him leading the passel of nearly 20 Republican candidates for the 2016 presidential nomination.
Mr. Bush, the former governor of Florida who has family ties to New England, was backed by 14 percent of respondents in a Suffolk University poll released Tuesday; the surprise was that his nearest competitor was Donald J. Trump, the real estate mogul-TV personality who announced his candidacy last week and who captured the support of nearly 11 percent of those surveyed.
That put him ahead of Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, who placed third with 8 percent, and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who had less than 7 percent.
In Iowa, Mr. Walker has dominated the polls, according to RealClearPolitics.com. There, polls show Mr. Bush running from third to fifth place, far back enough to prompt speculation that his campaign may skip Iowa and move his chips to New Hampshire, which is shaping up as his make-or-break state.
Mr. Bush has been ahead in most other recent polls in New Hampshire, where Mr. Walker, Mr. Rubio and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky had been in a scramble for second, third and fourth place before Mr. Trump unsettled the waters. In this poll, Mr. Paul slipped to seventh place, with 4 percent support.
Mr. Trump’s surprising strength could reflect a protest vote and dissatisfaction with the other candidates. The Suffolk poll showed him with a lower favorable rating and higher unfavorable rating than any other Republican, which makes his second-place showing somewhat dubious even as it may temporarily embarrass his rivals.
“There are two types of contenders in New Hampshire — those that are widely popular and have good upside potential like Rubio, Bush and Walker,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “Then you have contenders who have high unfavorabilities but still have a loyal niche of voters supporting them.” He put Mr. Trump in this category.
“In the short run, these candidates are competitive with the more popular G.O.P. contenders,” he said. “But in the long run it will be harder to grow as the field of candidates is reduced and the negatives become a disqualifier.”
The poll questioned 500 likely Republican primary voters from June 18 to 22, and it had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.