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Not a ‘marginal’ reduction in population

July 02, 2014

 

Dear Editor,

The 2012 census data are now out. The report shows that Guyana’s population has dropped to 747,884, down from 751,223 recorded for 2002. Taking an arithmetic approach Chief Statistician and Census Officer Lennox Benjamin calculates and describes the decline of 3,339 as a “marginal reduction.”

I would have had no difficulty with our Chief Statistician if he had simply provided the figures and let analysts and commentators consider their implications, or himself do so. In a matter involving so many components it is misleading, even dangerously so, to take two bald figures, subtract one from the other and then make a qualitative judgment therefrom about substantial or marginal. Mr Benjamin then adds the gratuitous comment that the “marginal reduction” was “mainly influenced by migration.”

There is nothing marginal about the numbers. If we add to the population of 751,223 persons in 2002 the 124,805 representing the number of births over deaths over the same period, the population at 2012 should have been 876,028 persons. In other words, we have lost at a minimum 128,144 persons. I describe this as minimum because over the past 10 years Guyana has attracted an indeterminate number of mainly Brazilians and Chinese at a rate not experienced by this country for more than 70 years.

If the number of inward immigrants is put conservatively at 1,000 persons per annum, it means that Guyana has lost a staggering 138,144 persons to outward migration, on a population that is less than three-quarters of a million.

Surely, surely it is time for those who manage this country to reflect on the causes why Guyanese are still leaving this country in droves and on the implications for the country of its best, brightest, most productive and ablest persons opting to leave.

I will review more fully the preliminary report on the 2012 census in my blog chrisram.net this weekend.

 Yours faithfully,

Christopher Ram

http://www.stabroeknews.com/20...eduction-population/

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There is nothing marginal about the numbers. If we add to the population of 751,223 persons in 2002 the 124,805 representing the number of births over deaths over the same period, the population at 2012 should have been 876,028 persons. In other words, we have lost at a minimum 128,144 persons.

Mitwah

Myth,

 

Learn to think for yourself and stop gobbling down everything that comes from the haters of the gov't. You are grown man and you should start acting like someone who can exercise good judgment. Keep posting propaganda and wanting us to believe is silly and futile. You need to do a check on yourself.

 

Have a good day Pundit. 

Billy Ram Balgobin

There is nothing marginal about the numbers. If we add to the population of 751,223 persons in 2002 the 124,805 representing the number of births over deaths over the same period, the population at 2012 should have been 876,028 persons. In other words, we have lost at a minimum 128,144 persons.

 

Another Corrupt PPP/C soup drinker, drinking milk this time. What do we expect?

FM
Originally Posted by Billy Ram Balgobin:

Myth,

 

Learn to think for yourself and stop gobbling down everything that comes from the haters of the gov't. You are grown man and you should start acting like someone who can exercise good judgment. Keep posting propaganda and wanting us to believe is silly and futile. You need to do a check on yourself.

 

Have a good day Pundit. 

An old skonthole like you should have stayed in school longer. Stop drinking the PPP/C sour milk and get out from that crawl space. The mold is affecting your mental kakarasity. Read and get educated, dumbass.

Mitwah
Originally Posted by Billy Ram Balgobin:

Myth,

 

Learn to think for yourself and stop gobbling down everything that comes from the haters of the gov't. You are grown man and you should start acting like someone who can exercise good judgment. Keep posting propaganda and wanting us to believe is silly and futile. You need to do a check on yourself.

 

Have a good day Pundit. 

What an absurd thing to say? As your statement suggests you are concerned with correct information being dispensed! So why not add a line or to to suggest why a reasonable calculation as the above given by Mr Ram is deemed propaganda if you are not into the business yourself? Have a good day PPP lapdog.

FM
Originally Posted by Stormborn:
Originally Posted by Billy Ram Balgobin:

Myth,

 

Learn to think for yourself and stop gobbling down everything that comes from the haters of the gov't. You are grown man and you should start acting like someone who can exercise good judgment. Keep posting propaganda and wanting us to believe is silly and futile. You need to do a check on yourself.

 

Have a good day Pundit. 

What an absurd thing to say? As your statement suggests you are concerned with correct information being dispensed! So why not add a line or to to suggest why a reasonable calculation as the above given by Mr Ram is deemed propaganda if you are not into the business yourself? Have a good day PPP lapdog.

The simple arithmetic is way over his head.

Mitwah
Originally Posted by Billy Ram Balgobin:

Myth,

 

Learn to think for yourself and stop gobbling down everything that comes from the haters of the gov't. You are grown man and you should start acting like someone who can exercise good judgment. Keep posting propaganda and wanting us to believe is silly and futile. You need to do a check on yourself.

 

Have a good day Pundit. 

This is not a myth Billy.

 

It is you who really needs a check up since what Ram writes corroborates with the solid truth.

FM

From the Guyana time - the PPP's BEACON OF TRUTH

 

4000+ legal migrants to US annually

US Ambassador to Guyana, D Brent Hardt

US Ambassador to Guyana,
D Brent Hardt

46,540 immigrant visas issued since 2004

 

By Jomo Paul

 

With more than 4000 Guyanese leaving here for the United States permanently every year, the country’s population growth rate has remained stagnant at 0.04 per year since 2002, the just released Census report has said.

Figures released by the US Embassy in Georgetown have revealed that since 2004, it has issued 46,540 immigration visas to Guyanese. According to figures seen by this newspaper, the Embassy has been issuing an average of 4500 immigrant visas per year since 2004, with 4572 issued last year – in excess of 500 more than the previous year’s.

Noting that both applications and issuance of this type of visas has been constant, US Ambassador to Guyana, D Brent Hardt told Guyana Times: “People see good prospects here and most people want to stay, they want to eat the food they like.”

Ambassador Hardt explained that there is a “congressionally mandated” limit on the number of persons that can be granted US Immigrant Visas. He further related that the limit may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and depend on the bilateral relations between the United States Government and the Government of that jurisdiction.

Table showing the breakdown of visas issued during the period 2004-2013

Table showing the breakdown of visas issued during the period 2004-2013

According to the Census findings, Guyana’s population growth rate had continued to fluctuate. It was estimated at 0.43 per cent per year during 1980-1991, 0.34 per cent between 1991 and 2002. However, this has reversed once again with negative growth for the period 2002-2012. The four Hinterland regions recorded an annual growth rate of 1.44 per cent per year while the coastal regions had a decline at the rate of -0.20.

 

Tripled

Meanwhile, regarding non-immigrant visas (visitor visas) Ambassador Hardt said the number of Guyanese nationals applying for this type of visas has almost tripled over the last three years. Speaking with Guyana Times in a recent exclusive interview, Hardt said what he has noticed during his tenure as US Ambassador to Guyana is that there has been a steady increase in the number of persons applying for visas to visit the US, whether for business or personal reasons. He explained that in 2011 at the commencement of his posting to Guyana, there were approximately 13,000 recorded applications for non-immigrant visas. However, he in 2012, that figure increased by over 7000, reaching 20,000 by the end of 2012. However, the increases did not stop at that point, as he further related that in 2013, the 2011 number had almost tripled, reaching 35,000. The Ambassador, however, explained that this number does not reflect the number of persons who would have successfully applied, since only about 60 per cent of those who would have applied for visas were granted non-immigrant status.

These numbers, however, do not necessarily reflect a negative impact in Guyana’s development, since those persons would have just applied for visitor visas which means that they are not travelling to the United States to reside but rather to conduct business, vacate or a host of other similar reasons.

Ambassador Hardt told Guyana Times that US officials are still attempting to determine what caused the significant rise in the number of applications being processed.

However, he noted that contributory factors may include but are not limited to more competitive air fares owing to a number of airlines operating the Georgetown/New York route and also increased business opportunities. He said too that the increase is a sure sign of enhanced bilateral ties between the US and Guyana which will positively impact both countries.

“It is a sign of closeness between our countries and… you know so many family ties, business ties… I think that it is a very positive thing for bilateral relations… there is a greater degree of prosperity,” Hardt said during the interview.

FM

 46,540 immigrant visas issued since 2004 to America.

 

What about Canada, the Islands, Suriname, Brazil and Europe?

 

Gosh, Guyanese even migrating to Australia these days.

 

Ram is correct and correct is right.

 

SHUT you up you idiot Billy Ram Goat.

FM
Originally Posted by Billy Ram Balgobin:

Myth,

 

Learn to think for yourself and stop gobbling down everything

You need to start thinking for yourself.  Why have approximately 140,000 Guyanese left Guyana at a time when it is more difficult to migrate to the USA and Canada?

 

Apparently tens of thousands fled to corals and volcanic peaks in that decade, as I have been saying for a long time now.  It is no coincidence that it is since 2002 that cries from Islanders about Guyanese pouring in became very shrill.

FM
Last edited by Former Member

Population growth takes into consideration births, immigration, deaths, and those who exodus from the country. When these factors are added to the equation the result will be more or less of the population base you started with. The census took all of these factors into consideration and came up with a population decline of 3K.

 

 

Billy Ram Balgobin
Originally Posted by Billy Ram Balgobin:

Population growth takes into consideration births, immigration, deaths, and those who exodus from the country. When these factors are added to the equation the result will be more or less of the population base you started with. The census took all of these factors into consideration and came up with a population decline of 3K.

 

 

The census count heads. It does not count people it cannot make contact with.

 

Census is supposed to be defined as the number of people one can count in over a specific period of time.

 

the number given as the current head count subtracted from the last head count is all that is taken to conclude on growth or loss

FM

Those who died or emigrated are not counted. Those who are born and living there along with those have immigrated to Guyana are there and their heads are counted. Show us how we would come up with a different result if do just a head count vs. what I stated.

Billy Ram Balgobin
Originally Posted by Billy Ram Balgobin:

Those who died or emigrated are not counted. Those who are born and living there along with those have immigrated to Guyana are there and their heads are counted. Show us how we would come up with a different result if do just a head count vs. what I stated.

You are a nut. Our census is an actual the head count. It does not count people who it cannot contact.

FM
Originally Posted by Billy Ram Balgobin:

You are the GNI Quack who masquerades as the know-it-all King. Your attempt to refute the census as being false is a fiasco.

Your statement indicates how vacuous you are. But then you are an old fool.

Mitwah

Mitwah,

 

Keep flattering yourself with all the anti-gov't. articles you can find no matter how absurd. You are obsessed  and your obession will never cease until you free yourself from ignorance and untruth. You are a dirty pundit. Go wash yourself at sea you pseudo.

 

Billy Ram Balgobin
Originally Posted by Billy Ram Balgobin:

Mitwah,

 

Keep flattering yourself with all the anti-gov't. articles you can find no matter how absurd. You are obsessed  and your obession will never cease until you free yourself from ignorance and untruth. You are a dirty pundit. Go wash yourself at sea you pseudo.

 

You are stupid and a dunce. Go hide in your crawl space, Moron.

Mitwah

Myth,

 

Bhai, you are really angry with me. You better get over it because I really don't care. I don't have friends on this forum and I don't care. I will be at Prak's Bar on Friday evening to enjoy a few cold ones with the best fried shark in town. If you would to meet face to face be my guest. Watch for vehicle parked out with a Mongoose Otero Comp hanging on the bike rack. 

Billy Ram Balgobin
Originally Posted by Billy Ram Balgobin:

You are the GNI Quack who masquerades as the know-it-all King. Your attempt to refute the census as being false is a fiasco.

I just happen to be born inquisitive and with a mind to pry  for and remember what I discover. What I stated above is  the manner and mode of conducting a census in Gy and practically everywhere else. Statistics is used in some places but our census is not a derived number but one with real world referent, an actual  head count.

FM

 From the horses mouth:-

The Population and Housing Census is one of Guyana’s largest national exercises.In the Census, which is conducted every ten years, Enumerators (census-takers) visit every household in every part of the country to administer questionnaires that collect social and economic information and data on the population. The Population and Housing Census is an extremely important national exercise and it is every citizen’s duty to cooperate according to the laws of Guyana, as the Census produces a huge body of information that is used in planning and development.

CENSUS DAY – 15TH SEPTEMBER 2012- The Hon. Minister of Finance issued a Census Regulation (No. 7 of 2012) and a Census Order (No. 175 of 2012) dated 14th August 2012 that formally announced the commencement of the 2012 Population & Housing Census on 15th September 2012.

 

The citizens’ confidentiality is protected by law, the same law which gives the Bureau the right and responsibility to take a Census. No-one is exempted for any reason from participating in the 2012 Population & Housing Census.

FM
Originally Posted by Billy Ram Balgobin:

Myth,

 

Bhai, you are really angry with me. You better get over it because I really don't care. I don't have friends on this forum and I don't care. I will be at Prak's Bar on Friday evening to enjoy a few cold ones with the best fried shark in town. If you would to meet face to face be my guest. Watch for vehicle parked out with a Mongoose Otero Comp hanging on the bike rack. 

I am not angry with you. You have my sympathy for being a retard.  You have very low moral values; high tolerance for corruption, nepotism, cronyism. I don't know you and I don't care for the likes like you, Dumb-Ass. Unlike you I search for the truth. You want to argue  statistics and you don't understand simple Arithmetic. Why are you angry with me for posting Ram's letter?

Mitwah

You are not showing us how the census results is wrong. I stated first that to measure a population growth of country one must start with actual population from the beginning of the period. Births must be net out against  deaths for that period and added to the beginning population figure. The number of people who emigrated should be net out against those have arrived in the country such as Chinese and Brazilians.  IF you take the net amounts of those two and add it to the beginning population for the period you are checking then it must correlate with an actual headcount.  It would not completely accurate but it should come very close. This also depends on the accuracy of records on population in the country. 

Billy Ram Balgobin

Myth,

 

I see frustration in your words. When a pundit use language like you do it is surely a sign of a degenerated mind. You are clinging to a party that will soon disappear and leave running like a stray. You will end up cooking dhal puri for the APNU boys. You think you are smart, but you are not. You are living in fool's paradise if you think the AFC will remove the PPP gov't. 

Billy Ram Balgobin
Originally Posted by Billy Ram Balgobin:

Myth,

 

I see frustration in your words. When a pundit use language like you do it is surely a sign of a degenerated mind. You are clinging to a party that will soon disappear and leave running like a stray. You will end up cooking dhal puri for the APNU boys. You think you are smart, but you are not. You are living in fool's paradise if you think the AFC will remove the PPP gov't. 

Keep on proving me right that you are a Dum-Ass of a Billy Goat.

Mitwah
Originally Posted by Billy Ram Balgobin:

Myth,

 

I see frustration in your words. When a pundit use language like you do it is surely a sign of a degenerated mind. You are clinging to a party that will soon disappear and leave running like a stray. You will end up cooking dhal puri for the APNU boys. You think you are smart, but you are not. You are living in fool's paradise if you think the AFC will remove the PPP gov't. 

they already destroy them they make them a minority government,now they will bury them 

FM
Originally Posted by KishanB:

the number right, but why no ethnic break down?

SSSSSH!   Indians are now less than 40% and the PPP is in pure panic!

 

How can they win elections based on "bad black man, good Indian" if they majority of the population, and even the voters are no longer Indian?

FM
Originally Posted by Billy Ram Balgobin:

You are not showing us how the census results is wrong. I stated first that to measure a population growth of country one must start with actual population from the beginning of the period. Births must be net out against  deaths for that period and added to the beginning population figure. The number of people who emigrated should be net out against those have arrived in the country such as Chinese and Brazilians.  IF you take the net amounts of those two and add it to the beginning population for the period you are checking then it must correlate with an actual headcount.  It would not completely accurate but it should come very close. This also depends on the accuracy of records on population in the country. 

I never said the census is wrong. I said the idea of "marginal growth" in the population by PPP hacks are jumby mathematics. The census affords us a sufferance number to illustrate massive loss of people via immigration!

 

I will know if it has errors when we get the complete data points from the village level to the ethnic break down.

FM

Americans moving to Canada in record numbers: report

<cite class="byline vcard">By  | Canada Politics – Thu, 12 Jul, 2012</cite>

Canadian border guards are silhouetted at the Douglas border crossing on the Canada-USA border in Surrey, B.C.In what seems to be a reversal of fortunes from the 1990s, more and more Americans are looking to Canada as the 'land of opportunity.'

According to a new report by CTV News, economic woes in the U.S. are driving a record number of Americans across the northern border as they seek better job opportunities and cheaper education in Canada.

In 2011, Ottawa approved 34,185 visas for U.S. residents  — a figure that falls just short of the all-time record of 35,060 approved visas in 2010.

FM

Yuji why do Guyanese think that St Kitts, St Vincent and Grenada are better than Guyana.  Because these are the types of places to which THOUSANDS of Guyanese fled to between 2002-12, because the USA only accounts for 1/3 of those who left Guyana in this period.

FM

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