Given the sure Obama States and the sure Romney States, the road to 270 requires less Electoral College votes for Obama. He leads in most polls in Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and is still competitive in Florida.
The "October Surpeise" might just be, on reflection, Sandy, and the views of Federal government in national crises of both candidates. That favors Obama. The jobs repoort today can only help, though this might haver been factored in in the subjective views of the trending of the economy. This too favors Obama. Then there is the question of trust and Romney playing things close to the vest - like his economic plan specifics and hos own tax returns.
watch for Assad's days to be numbered after the elections that will have validated Obama's stewardship