Caribny,

What happend to the brothers and sisters in region 10?  I thought they had 100% turn out there how you were getting on.

Come in Carib.

The election was very close APNU/AFC won by

4,545 votes.

These people took forever to post the results on Gecom and STILL they have mistakes.  Look at total electorates for region 6 at the far right.  Something got shifted down.  Lawd have murcey!!

Even though Linden has seen a decline in population, this May there was a RECORD performance of 20k votes. The best year was in 1997, when it was 19k votes.

In 2006 APNU/AFC pulled in 10.4k votes, increasing to 12.6k in 2011.  This year they pulled in 16.8k.    APNU/AFC pulled in MORE votes than the TOTAL votes cast in 2011.

I will suggest to you that they did a good job, so cut out your illterate nonsense.

BTW not all of Region 10 is Linden.  It also includes areas up the Demerara River and upriver (East bank) Essequibo, below Region 3, and upriver Berbice (west bank) below Region 5. When one considers that many in this region do not live in accessable areas, and the PPPs sale of the bauxite to the Chinese forced many Lindenites to seek employment OUTSIDE of the region, that turn out is not only credible, BUT MUCH HIGHER than it was before.

APNu/AFC addedc 4,200 votes to its 2011 totals.  As we can see APNU/AFc won by 4,500.  So over 90% of the margin of victory came from Region 10.

So what is your point. I suggest that you chat about bridges and leabe ths statistical analysis of election results to those who have the ability to do so. 

 Shut yuh rass.  10,000 brothers and sisters stayed home.  You are the one that said they came out in droves.

Poor illiterate and ignorant man.  I stated my case using NUMBERS, and NOT % turn out.  % turn out doesnt win elections.  NUMBERS of people voting does.

Here are teh FACTS.  APNU/AFC INCREASED its votes in region 10 by 4,200, and in region 7 by 1,200.  Its overall margin of victory was 4,500.  MORE than 100% of this margin of victory was accounted by Regions 7 and 10.  Had APNU NOT mobilized its base in Regions 7 and 10 the PPP would have WON. 

I do not even need to get into the massive turn out that was reported in South G/town which is the most DENSELY PNC dominated area in Guyana. 

Suffice to say that the increase in turn out was MASSIVE, but as we do not have data to disaggregate this from the ECD I didnt stress it.  The fact that APNU/AFC increased its vote by a whopping 18.5k will provide some indication of it.

BTW 30% of Region 10 consists of people who self identify as "mixed" and another 10% self identify as either East Indian or Amerindian, so these arent all "brothers".

FACT.  APNU was HIGHLY successful MORE at anytime since the 2001 election in mobilizing their base to vote. 

This is why people like you are whimpering and wailing about teh PPP losing,because that party campaigned by telling East Indians and Amerindians that blacks were going to kill and rob them if APNU won.  Yet they cou8ldnt muster enough votes as the PNC mobilized its African and mixed identified base.

10,000 stayed home!!  10,000 is not a percentage bumble bee 

!!  10,000 is not a percentage bumble bee 

Focus on this.  The APNU/AFC increased its votes in Region 10 by 4,200.  They increased their votes in Region 7 by 1,200.  So in a mere two regions the increase in their vote exceeded the overall victory.

This means that had they NOT been able to get RECORD votes in these two regions they would have LOST,

So what is your point, aside from ranting like the drunken lout that Nehru is?

You do know that the total list is based on DEAD people, and those who MIGRATED, and is therefore NOT reliable! Can your ignorant brain process this! 

You do know that, with about 1/3 of its population under 18 y/o a list of registered voters implies a population of 870k. Given that we know that the population is not even 750k, this suggests that there are tens of thousands of names on that list that should NOT be there.

If you had the ability to analyze statistical data you would see this, but you do not so you cannot!

Originally Posted by VVP:

!!  10,000 is not a percentage bumble bee 

Focus on this.  The APNU/AFC increased its votes in Region 10 by 4,200.  They increased their votes in Region 7 by 1,200.  So in a mere two regions the increase in their vote exceeded the overall victory.

 

This means that had they NOT been able to get RECORD votes in these two regions they would have LOST,

 

So what is your point, aside from ranting like the drunken lout that Nehru is?

 

You do know that the total list is based on DEAD people, and those who MIGRATED, and is therefore NOT reliable! Can your ignorant brain process this! 

 

You do know that, with about 1/3 of its population under 18 y/o a list of registered voters implies a population of 870k. Given that we know that the population is not even 750k, this suggests that there are tens of thousands of names on that list that should NOT be there.

 

If you had the ability to analyze statistical data you would see this, but you do not so you cannot!

You mean the 30 percent of region 10 dead!  Why you insulting those people!  If all 10,000 had shown up awee could have gotten 2 more seats.

Based on the age pyramid of the 2002 census, 44% of Guyana's population is 19 and under.  The list of registered voters is 583k, so if we assume that 40% is under 18 then we have a total population of 971k.  So it is even worse than I thought.

If the implied population is 971k, and the actual population is around 750k, this suggests that 271k people have disappeared.  Or 28% of the population.

When one considers that Linden has suffered a severe loss of jobs due to problems in the bauxite industry, many have moved into the gold industry, meaning that they are NOT resident in Region 10.  In addition others might have moved to Region 4, where more opportunities for those with their skill set might exist.  This would imply that the list of registered voters is even LESS accurate in this region.

But as illiterate as you are, you lack the sophistication to do this kind of analysis.

Now continue to bray like Nehru. Yes 10,000, 10,000, without the grasp of reasons why this is the case.

And what is your point any way. It is clear that the increase in votes for APNU/AFC were enough to win the election, as this EXCEEDED their overall margin.

.

I see you changed from being a Statistician to an Economist with LOTS of ASSumptions 

Why dont you name these assumptions? Show how "bright" you are.

Ah bold them for you above brite bai.

And what is wrong with those assumptions?  Please entertain me.

If in 2002 44% of Guyanese were under 19, then tell me how we can have an accurate list of 583k people with a population of 747k? 

Did Guyanese women suddenly stop having babies, and was there a massive epidemic which changed the age profile of Guyana, making it a considerably older population. 

Why would the under 19 population collapse from 44% to 22% in a mere 10 years.

I ask these questions rhetorically, knowing that on this topic you make Nehru look like a genius.

 Ah give up!

Please do.  I had a limited amount of respect for you.  Right now you make me think that you and Nehru have the same intellectual capacities.

I will not argue with you on technical matters.  That is not my expertise. Do not argue with me on a topic which I am clearly more knowlegeable than you are, and that is analyzing social data.

Banna didn't I tell you that I have a Masters in Public Administration and a member of the NATIONAL Pi Alpha Alpha Honor society.  Analyzing social data is my forte.  Now you gan tell me ah boasting.

You scream this all the time, yet you do NOT show any capabilities in this.

Had you, it would be easy for you to build up a rebuttal to me but you have FAILED to do so.

The discrepancies in the list of registered voters was much discussed before the election, so why are you using this as a base when it is bloated by about 30%?

This is a conversation between two people....interesting