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FM
Former Member

The election of Donald Trump has brought with it a surge in optimism in the United States over the economy and stocks not seen in years.

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey for the fourth quarter found that the percentage of Americans who believe the economy will get better in the next year jumped an unprecedented 17 points to 42 percent, compared with before the election. It's the highest level since President Barack Obama was first elected in 2008.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/09...ion-cnbc-survey.html

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Rich White Guys are cheering about how they conned the Poor White Guys.

Baseman check to see what the S&P 500 was in Jan 2009, and what it was in Sept 2016, when most thought that Hillary would win.

This is how your racism shows as you will give Trump credit, even though he is NOT president yet, so really hasn't done anything. Yet you will not credit Obama for the significant market recovery.

FM
caribny posted:

Rich White Guys are cheering about how they conned the Poor White Guys.

Baseman check to see what the S&P 500 was in Jan 2009, and what it was in Sept 2016, when most thought that Hillary would win.

This is how your racism shows as you will give Trump credit, even though he is NOT president yet, so really hasn't done anything. Yet you will not credit Obama for the significant market recovery.

Ah, shut up. I did not write the article, I merely posted it.  Obama filled the hole from the 2008 crash, Trump will now build the new mount!

FM
ba$eman posted:
caribny posted:

Rich White Guys are cheering about how they conned the Poor White Guys.

Baseman check to see what the S&P 500 was in Jan 2009, and what it was in Sept 2016, when most thought that Hillary would win.

This is how your racism shows as you will give Trump credit, even though he is NOT president yet, so really hasn't done anything. Yet you will not credit Obama for the significant market recovery.

Ah, shut up. I did not write the article, I merely posted it.  Obama filled the hole from the 2008 crash, Trump will now build the new mount!

The hypocrisy is that trump screamed about Hilliary speech to Goldman and here he is appointing four super rich of the goldman's club to his cabinet.  He will indeed build a mountain...piled high with picking the pockets of poor people. It is what he does....said the scorpion to the frog.

FM
ba$eman posted:
caribny posted:

Rich White Guys are cheering about how they conned the Poor White Guys.

Baseman check to see what the S&P 500 was in Jan 2009, and what it was in Sept 2016, when most thought that Hillary would win.

This is how your racism shows as you will give Trump credit, even though he is NOT president yet, so really hasn't done anything. Yet you will not credit Obama for the significant market recovery.

Ah, shut up. I did not write the article, I merely posted it.  Obama filled the hole from the 2008 crash, Trump will now build the new mount!

Baseman you should be thankful you can copy and paste from the internet.  Else you would be quiet.

 

 

 

FM
Last edited by Former Member
ba$eman posted:
caribny posted:

Rich White Guys are cheering about how they conned the Poor White Guys.

Baseman check to see what the S&P 500 was in Jan 2009, and what it was in Sept 2016, when most thought that Hillary would win.

This is how your racism shows as you will give Trump credit, even though he is NOT president yet, so really hasn't done anything. Yet you will not credit Obama for the significant market recovery.

Ah, shut up. I did not write the article, I merely posted it.  Obama filled the hole from the 2008 crash, Trump will now build the new mount!

Yes a Rich White Man boasting how richer he will get by fooling poor souls like you.  No wonder they are delirious.

I am sure that you note the take over of the Trump administration by Goldman Sachs, after screaming about this subject with Hillary.

Like Trump said one thing but will do the opposite.  Not only didn't he drain the swamp but he has let open the floodgates so its now a lake.

 

 

FM
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

.  Some New Yorkers are optimistic that he will use his powers to help NYS and NYC.  If he does then a whole lot of Guyanese will be Happy. 

Yes. Sticking them with a $35 million bill because he choses to stay in midtown when makes has driven up the cost to protect him, and has also reduced revenues for nearby business because of the heavy security.

FM
ba$eman posted:
FC posted:

Trump building a billionaire club with Wall Street cronies. The rich will get richer. Hard times ahead for Main Street. 

As opposed to the Obama club who became millionaires in Govt?

You are as usual pedaling fake news. Obama is not rich not is Hillary. the Clintons became rich by speeches and books. It is better than on the backs of ruined small merchants like trump.

Wall street is speculating on the relaxing of environmental and financial regulations. They are hoping to make a killing by skirting health and sound fiduciary processes that protects consumers. Tearing down dood-frank or permitting the Keystone may poise great environmental problems. Trump and his rich friends see dollar signs not the concerns of the common man.

He is set to pillage the state for his gain.

FM
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

You sounded like a paranoid leftwing professor who keeps himself poor to prove a point. 

I am far from left wing or poor. My little stash has been accumulated soundly on hard work and honest living. You are the one who is walking in the weeds here by imagining what is not grounded in facts. The reality is trickle down does not work. It never has. As I said before I am a social Keynesian meaning government must intervene to maintain integrity in the financial system and at times to regulate the direction of financial flows. America is and has been made wealthy by looking out for middle america. When there are vast distances unknown distances between an investor and his money as the current market operates the rich alone wins.

Casino investment and the realm of the quants who use lax financial regulations created derivatives out of air and  ruined us. This kind of investing  stole three trillion from the middle class. Goldman et al were responsible for treating finances as a poker game. The down cycles in our times has always been because of the rich playing free and loose with other people's money.

A typical example is  Goldman Sachs who took 350 billion of Qaddafi's money and traded it to zero. People in the business of sound investing does not do that and still have credibility. Even the penny ante day trader knows when to hold. But in the world of the rich you can lie and steal and cheat your ass off and still be considered "respectable company". In the case of trump who hired 4 of these fellows,  they are called "smart". Well what do you expect....he knows more than the generals ...because he is so so smart and will do every thing so bigly that you would be astounded out of your boots! I know a con and so do the really smart people.

FM
Last edited by Former Member
Drugb posted:

As Greenspan said, irrational exuberance.  The bubble will burst as these run up in stocks are not supported by any earnings. People are speculating. 

You really shock me on the extremely rare moments when you chat sense.

The market is up because people expect a stimulus. The GOP will block Trump just as it did Obama. Ironically Trump will have to work with the Democrats to get this done.

There is no evidence that tax cuts grow the economy because if that was the case the late Reagan era and the Clinton era would have shown stagnation, and the GW Bush era would have shown a boom.

The economy grows when consumers spend and tax cuts usually don't favor the middle class who spend the most.

Instead we see the opposite. Over the past 30 years the best periods of job growth were under Clinton, Reagan and Obama, in that order. Reagan INCREASED income taxes when the budget deficits threatened to derail the economy and spike interest rates, which were quite high in the 80s.

So when the tax cuts don't bring trickle down growth, then we will see stocks drop.

I expect baseman to join Rev wherever Rev is hiding.

FM
Drugb posted:

As Greenspan said, irrational exuberance.  The bubble will burst as these run up in stocks are not supported by any earnings. People are speculating. 

Overall PE's are still reasonable.  The run up is in many bricks and mortar companies held back by stifling regulations and lack of conviction.  I doubt we are in that "irrational exuberance" phase and he was referring to the dot.coms many of whom were trading at multiples in the '000s.  This rally is being led by energy, steel, industrials, pharma, transport and many nuts and bolts companies!

True, earnings have not yet materialized and the market is a betting game, they bet on companies which will produce earnings.  Tax cuts and funds repatriation are also a big reason for the rally.  Speculation is part of any stock market.

The only bubble is Obama's weak economy propped be the Feds -0- rate policy which have pumped up equities.  Trump's stimulus and tax cuts will more than absorb this bubble and the Feds will have more freedom to raise rates to more sustainable levels.  However, the bond market will take it on the chin!

FM
caribny posted:
Drugb posted:

As Greenspan said, irrational exuberance.  The bubble will burst as these run up in stocks are not supported by any earnings. People are speculating. 


So when the tax cuts don't bring trickle down growth, then we will see stocks drop.

I expect baseman to join Rev wherever Rev is hiding.

Tax cuts will not bring "trickle down growth", but growth, period!  Tax cuts will increase the ROI consideration and value proposition on investments in the US.  It will also increase the hurdle for offshoring.  The trickle down will be the employment created which puts spending power into the hands of the people, who will then consume products and services.

I also hope they can agree on a funds repatriation model and get that two trillion back into the US coffers!  This will then be available for self-funded investments, stock buybacks or special dividends, all of which will have a positive.

Baseman never goes into hiding!

FM
Drugb posted:

Base I hope you are investing long, if you really believe this rally is sustained on sound fundamentals.  Money is to be made either way, up or down. For now I will be shorting some of the weaker runups. 

I am long on Energy and Industrials.  They have a long run well into 2017.  Apple might also offer mid-term value as they will likely repatriate funds and do a buyback!

Good luck shorting!

FM
ba$eman posted:
Drugb posted:

As Greenspan said, irrational exuberance.  The bubble will burst as these run up in stocks are not supported by any earnings. People are speculating. 

Overall PE's are still reasonable.  The run up is in many bricks and mortar companies held back by stifling regulations and lack of conviction.  I doubt we are in that "irrational exuberance" phase and he was referring to the dot.coms many of whom were trading at multiples in the '000s.  This rally is being led by energy, steel, industrials, pharma, transport and many nuts and bolts companies!

True, earnings have not yet materialized and the market is a betting game, they bet on companies which will produce earnings.  Tax cuts and funds repatriation are also a big reason for the rally.  Speculation is part of any stock market.

The only bubble is Obama's weak economy propped be the Feds -0- rate policy which have pumped up equities.  Trump's stimulus and tax cuts will more than absorb this bubble and the Feds will have more freedom to raise rates to more sustainable levels.  However, the bond market will take it on the chin!

Do you think that the Fed's zero interest rate is the only reason for the stock market recovering and tripling from the mess that Bush left it in? Japan has a zero interest rate policy in place for many years and that has done nothing to raise Japan out of stagnation.

Mars
Mars posted:
ba$eman posted:
Drugb posted:

As Greenspan said, irrational exuberance.  The bubble will burst as these run up in stocks are not supported by any earnings. People are speculating. 

Overall PE's are still reasonable.  The run up is in many bricks and mortar companies held back by stifling regulations and lack of conviction.  I doubt we are in that "irrational exuberance" phase and he was referring to the dot.coms many of whom were trading at multiples in the '000s.  This rally is being led by energy, steel, industrials, pharma, transport and many nuts and bolts companies!

True, earnings have not yet materialized and the market is a betting game, they bet on companies which will produce earnings.  Tax cuts and funds repatriation are also a big reason for the rally.  Speculation is part of any stock market.

The only bubble is Obama's weak economy propped be the Feds -0- rate policy which have pumped up equities.  Trump's stimulus and tax cuts will more than absorb this bubble and the Feds will have more freedom to raise rates to more sustainable levels.  However, the bond market will take it on the chin!

Do you think that the Fed's zero interest rate is the only reason for the stock market recovering and tripling from the mess that Bush left it in? Japan has a zero interest rate policy in place for many years and that has done nothing to raise Japan out of stagnation.

No, it was not.  It did recover fundamentally from the hole of 2008, true.  The zero rate in the US has created a bubble and not only in equities, but also in companies Balance Sheets as they borrowed cheap to grow.  Now they are loaded up on debt and we can expect a shake out and dilution as interest rates increase.  The reduce in tax rates could mitigate some of this!

Japan has a lot of structural issues so a comparison is difficult.

FM
Last edited by Former Member

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