Hillary Clinton's Lead Over Trump Shrinks After Controversial Week: Poll

Three things - (i) too early, the conventions will give each candidate their respective bounces then by Labor Day things get serious; (ii) you have to look at the average of polls as some polls are outliers and (iii) the Quinnipiac poll had Romney beating Obama in 2012 at this stage.

But, I do not begrudge you clutching for straws. Trump has to do better than Romney and with his declining  Hispanic support and not enough old white men to help him, he'll have a tough time winning in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. He needs all three to win the presidency.

Kari posted:

 

But, I do not begrudge you clutching for straws. Trump has to do better than Romney and with his declining  Hispanic support

OH and PA might be winnable by Trump depending on turn out. 

What appears to be happening in FL is that Clinton is doing better with the white vote than Trump is, as she does seem to have strength there. In addition Puerto Ricans have surged towards FL over the past 10 years, and there are fewer of the older Cubans who hysterically hate the Clintons because of Elian.

In addition GA is looking weaker so if Clinton spends time there it forces Trump to split is limited funds to keep that state, NC and VA, so will have less for PA, OH and WI.

And I maintain that the Achilles heel of Trump will be when Hillary parades legions of construction workers who will say that Trump stiffed them their pay. And also when we hear all about how Trump procures his hotel supplies from the cheapest source possible, so has no integrity in screaming about Walmart and others.

But it will be tough for Hillary as that email scandal shows that she is either careless or that she lies, and that might give some an excuse not to vote.

Trump will win by all indications. He don't need luck or blessing to win. He has the voters confidence to win. He should wait to see Clinton's VP pick before announcing his pick.

Prince posted:

Trump will win by all indications. He don't need luck or blessing to win. He has the voters confidence to win. He should wait to see Clinton's VP pick before announcing his pick.

Trump has hardly done much on the campaign trail and he has moved ahead.  He needs a good VP and the type of Town Hall Paul Ryan held last night will pacify the middle.  Ryan did an excellent job last night clarifying the GOP position and how it will play out under Trump.  He is telling the flock to trust folks like him to help maintain balance.  He was very convincing!  He made it about [crooked] Hillary, not Trump!!

Kari posted:

Three things - (i) too early, the conventions will give each candidate their respective bounces then by Labor Day things get serious; (ii) you have to look at the average of polls as some polls are outliers and (iii) the Quinnipiac poll had Romney beating Obama in 2012 at this stage.

But, I do not begrudge you clutching for straws. Trump has to do better than Romney and with his declining  Hispanic support and not enough old white men to help him, he'll have a tough time winning in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. He needs all three to win the presidency.

This is not clutching at straws.  That was a major snap-back by Trump!

Polls usually bounce near and at political conventions to confirm the candidates; so these fluctuations are expected.

One needs to see the developments after the respective conventions.

Everyone love polls when its in their favor. I agree that the polls will continue to fluctuate at different times, but the poll result is important and it gives the candidates an indication where voters stand on issues, favor-ability, likeability, etc. Like it or hate it is how the system works.

Depends on the source of the polls.

Dem_Guy, you speaking like a spin master now. 

Simply the facts, Prince ... the facts.

Prince posted:

Dem_Guy, you speaking like a spin master now. 

He is not "spin" he is Merry-Go-Round!!

Let's leave Ba$e and froggy Prince to thump their collective puffed-out chests. The illusion will soon evaporate come Labor Day when the elections get serious and polls get back to normal.

Oh, and let's leave CARIBNY to over-use that word "turnout" in an election year that is crazy line none before it. HE knows that the only people motivated are white males and that swing states that Obama won will see the Obama coalition voters stay at home.

Wait for the September superPACs and Obama hitting the road for Hillary. Trump has the noise factor now and that's why Ba$e/froggyPrince/Yugi are elated, and that carib dude running scared.

Prince posted:

Trump will win by all indications.

Sorry most people in this country would like to think that they aren't bigots.  Victory for Trump most likely NOT assured.

Kari posted:

 

Oh, and let's leave CARIBNY to over-use that word "turnout" in an election year that is crazy line none before it..

1.  Hillary lacks the charisma of Obama, and isn't seen as honest.

2.  Turn out is key in any election.  Every knows that it is who votes that matters, not who fits into a particular demographic.

Bottom line is Hillary isn't listening to you.  While she knows that the demographics favor the Dems in presidential elections she fully well knows that turn out in a few states is what matters. 

She also fully well knows that the demographic which favors the Dems is a narrow one, based on minorities, single females, and suburban voters.  If she gets less than 40% of the white vote then she might most likely LOSE.

Even pollsters favorable to her give Trump a 20% probability of winning.  20% isn't zero!

caribny posted:

Prince posted:

Trump will win by all indications.

Sorry most people in this country would like to think that they aren't bigots.  Victory for Trump most likely NOT assured.

I agree, victory is never assured!

By the way Kari do you know that Obama only won about 48% of the white female vote.   The reason why he is said to have won the female vote is because up to 60% of the minority voters are females, so they overweight the female vote.

So it isn't just a white male thing that Hillary must deal with.  Its an inertia which might suggest that if its two crooks running then it doesn't matter who wins.  This is more likely to be a phenomenon which impacts the Dems, as we can see from the last TWO mid term elections!

ba$eman posted:

caribny posted:

Prince posted:

Trump will win by all indications.

Sorry most people in this country would like to think that they aren't bigots.  Victory for Trump most likely NOT assured.

I agree, victory is never assured!

Your thug only has a 20% probability of winning.  This is why Trump can only get nonentities or has beens interested in being VP.  Ryan knows that its a sure fire way to end his career in politics if he is seen on the same stump as Trump, and then loses.

Kari posted:

Let's leave Ba$e and froggy Prince to thump their collective puffed-out chests. The illusion will soon evaporate come Labor Day when the elections get serious and polls get back to normal.

Oh, and let's leave CARIBNY to over-use that word "turnout" in an election year that is crazy line none before it. HE knows that the only people motivated are white males and that swing states that Obama won will see the Obama coalition voters stay at home.

Wait for the September superPACs and Obama hitting the road for Hillary. Trump has the noise factor now and that's why Ba$e/froggyPrince/Yugi are elated, and that carib dude running scared.

Is Obama constituency any better off than eight years ago?  Many are frustrated and will stay at home as [crooked] Hillary in less than inspiring.  In fact, Trump's talk of blue-collar jobs, construction projects, rebuilding cities and address Black unemployment will get their attention.  And he is yet to let-loose Diamond and Silk!!

Trump will throw some carrots and appoint Newt the Czar of Black Lives Matter, Black jobs, prison reform, purge non-violent criminal records for Black man with families, skills training and put Black people back to work.  And it will be Newt with communication director Anderson Cooper!

If Black people give Trump a chance, he will ensure they don't regret!  And what is there to lose, Obama brought Blacks nothing and [crooked] Hillary just want's their votes and will toss them a few trinkets and walk on by to cater to her special interest!!  She will bring them less than nothing!

Caribj needs to cut out his nonsense rants pretending that only Blacks can address Black issues!!

caribny posted:

ba$eman posted:

caribny posted:

Prince posted:

Trump will win by all indications.

Sorry most people in this country would like to think that they aren't bigots.  Victory for Trump most likely NOT assured.

I agree, victory is never assured!

Your thug only has a 20% probability of winning.  This is why Trump can only get nonentities or has beens interested in being VP.  Ryan knows that its a sure fire way to end his career in politics if he is seen on the same stump as Trump, and then loses.

Don't say you were not warned!

ba$eman posted:

Kari posted:

Let's leave Ba$e and froggy Prince to thump their collective puffed-out chests. The illusion will soon evaporate come Labor Day when the elections get serious and polls get back to normal.

Oh, and let's leave CARIBNY to over-use that word "turnout" in an election year that is crazy line none before it. HE knows that the only people motivated are white males and that swing states that Obama won will see the Obama coalition voters stay at home.

Wait for the September superPACs and Obama hitting the road for Hillary. Trump has the noise factor now and that's why Ba$e/froggyPrince/Yugi are elated, and that carib dude running scared.

Is Obama constituency any better off than eight years ago?  Many are frustrated and will stay at home as [crooked] Hillary in less than inspiring.  In fact, Trump's talk of blue-collar jobs, construction projects, rebuilding cities and address Black unemployment will get their attention.  And he is yet to let-loose Diamond and Silk!!

Trump will throw some carrots and appoint Newt the Czar of Black Lives Matter, Black jobs, prison reform, purge non-violent criminal records for Black man with families, skills training and put Black people back to work.  And it will be Newt with communication director Anderson Cooper!

If Black people give Trump a chance, he will ensure they don't regret!  And what is there to lose, Obama brought Blacks nothing and [crooked] Hillary just want's their votes and will toss them a few trinkets and walk on by to cater to her special interest!!  She will bring them less than nothing!

Caribj needs to cut out his nonsense rants pretending that only Blacks can address Black issues!!

You are plainly ignorant of the political realities of the US. Construction is on the rise everywhere. Blacks always lag behind but they did fine during clinton, worse during bush and under Obama we see a recovery of what was stolen in the wall street scams.

Black people and Newt are a no no. Black people hate his racist ass recent platitudes notwithstanding. Actually, I am hard pressed to find one group that likes him. And black people do not want whites to address their issues. White attitude and institutional policies are their burdens. Whites need to address that. Newt was part of that law and order group   that saw black people disproportionately being jailed. Blacks lost a third of their young men from one generation to these onerous laws instituted by republicans.

Stormborn posted:

ba$eman posted:

Kari posted:

Let's leave Ba$e and froggy Prince to thump their collective puffed-out chests. The illusion will soon evaporate come Labor Day when the elections get serious and polls get back to normal.

Oh, and let's leave CARIBNY to over-use that word "turnout" in an election year that is crazy line none before it. HE knows that the only people motivated are white males and that swing states that Obama won will see the Obama coalition voters stay at home.

Wait for the September superPACs and Obama hitting the road for Hillary. Trump has the noise factor now and that's why Ba$e/froggyPrince/Yugi are elated, and that carib dude running scared.

Is Obama constituency any better off than eight years ago?  Many are frustrated and will stay at home as [crooked] Hillary in less than inspiring.  In fact, Trump's talk of blue-collar jobs, construction projects, rebuilding cities and address Black unemployment will get their attention.  And he is yet to let-loose Diamond and Silk!!

Trump will throw some carrots and appoint Newt the Czar of Black Lives Matter, Black jobs, prison reform, purge non-violent criminal records for Black man with families, skills training and put Black people back to work.  And it will be Newt with communication director Anderson Cooper!

If Black people give Trump a chance, he will ensure they don't regret!  And what is there to lose, Obama brought Blacks nothing and [crooked] Hillary just want's their votes and will toss them a few trinkets and walk on by to cater to her special interest!!  She will bring them less than nothing!

Caribj needs to cut out his nonsense rants pretending that only Blacks can address Black issues!!

You are plainly ignorant of the political realities of the US. Construction is on the rise everywhere. Blacks always lag behind but they did fine during clinton, worse during bush and under Obama we see a recovery of what was stolen in the wall street scams.

Black people and Newt are a no no. Black people hate his racist ass recent platitudes notwithstanding. Actually, I am hard pressed to find one group that likes him. And black people do not want whites to address their issues. White attitude and institutional policies are their burdens. Whites need to address that. Newt was part of that law and order group   that saw black people disproportionately being jailed. Blacks lost a third of their young men from one generation to these onerous laws instituted by republicans.

 

It was signed into law by Clinton, but I would not peel that onion further.  Trump/GOP has a plan for Blacks to get them back to work and off welfare.  Newt understand well the legacy of slavery and segregation and he will be appointed to handle something along those lines.

Newt is not being elected but appointed, so popularity matters not!  When it's rolled out, it's not a matter of choice, unless you want to be left behind...your choice.  The onerous laws will be amended and amnesty granted and Black men can move on with skills training and live fruitful lives taking care of their families.