PPP leads in Geographical seats – according to latest NACTA poll
THE ongoing tracking opinion poll being conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) shows the incumbent PPP/C leading the Opposition alliance and the minor parties in its projected outcome of the distribution of Geographical seats in the lead up to the May 11 General elections.
Of the 25 seats up for grabs in the Ten Administrative Regions, the PPP is on course to winning a slight majority of them. The party could capture up to fifteen seats if it can win several marginal Regions. Because of close contests between the PPP/C and the Opposition alliance in some of the Regions, it cannot be determined precisely how many seats each party would win.
The NACTA poll, conducted by Dr. Vishnu Bisram, interviewed some 2,000 voters since February to represent the demographic composition of the population – Indians 42%, Africans (31%, Mixed 17%, Amerindians 9%, and others 1%).
Based on the findings of the poll, the PPP is certain to win 12 of the 25 geographical seats up for grabs and is leading in one more that could give it a total of 13 seats and in close contests in two others. The Opposition PNC-led alliance is certain to win ten seats and is leading in one more that could give it 11 geographical seats.
The two parties are in a dead heat for one seat that could go either way with the alliance having the edge. No other party has a chance of winning any geographical seat though they are polling votes that would impact on how many top up seats each party would win and how many regional councilor seats each party wins.
The poll’s findings are projecting a 13-12 or a 14-11 outcome in favour of the PPP/C. There is also a slim possibility of the PPP winning 15 seats, though such an outcome is highly improbable. Because of the racial polarization of the voting, except for Indians splitting their votes, and the ethnic demographic distribution of the population, the chance of the Opposition winning 13 geographical seats is remote with 12 being a more realistic outcome. However, with the Indians splitting their vote, the alliance has a chance of picking up a seat in Essequibo (Region 2), in what would be a historic feat. That outcome, however, is not assured as PPP has a huge lead in the Region. Analogously, Africans are not splitting their votes. And as such the PPP has no chance of winning a seat in the PNC stronghold of Linden (Region 10).
Winning a majority of the Geographical seats does not guarantee a plurality (presidency) or a majority of the overall 65 seats. The election is turning out to be a battleground between the two dominant parties (alliances) with the minor parties making little headway into the historical traditional pattern of voting. The election is very close with the PPP/C slightly ahead in popular support.
The poll’s projections relating to popular support and overall total seats will be released in a subsequent report. NACTA will continue its tracking poll to determine final projections.