I'm actually surprised that Stormy buys into this 40% misapprehension.

40% Indian voters cannot produce the overwhelming bulk of the PPP/C's 32 seats and the AFC's 7 seats out of a 65-seat Parliament. It just doesn't make any sense.

The AFC and the PPP/C in combination represent 60% of the 2011 electorate. How does one approach that number with 40% of being Indian (I assume no Indian voted PNC in any statistically significant rate). This would mean that the PPP/C and the AFC between each other captured 20% of an electorate that is definitely Black, Mixed, and/or Amerindian.

The AFC lost maybe 20% of the mainly black/mixed base that it one in 2006.  It more than offset these with a 10k vote pick up in Regions 5 and 6, due to some PPP loyalists supporting Nagamootoo as they despaired ofv the Jagdeoite PPP.

Even though the now Nagamootoo led AFC has an almost exclusive focus on the rural Indian vote, as these are the only ones drawn to him in large numbers, and it seems that the old AFCites are now tired, it still has 50% support from non Indians.

The PPP drew about 60% of the Amerindian vote, though I am not sure that this indicates anything more than the tochaos controlling much of that vote, and selling it to the PPP in exchange for two motor boats.

Concur in most, dissent in part. I think the AFC non-Indian support is much lower than 50% of its total vote. I agree to disagree because the evidence is so highly circumstantial and infused with personal knowledge on everyone's part.

In addition, I've encountered another problem as you alluded to earlier before as anyone who observes elections generally encounter. This is the part where Guyana starts to resemble the U.S., the UK, Trinidad, and other mature Western democracies. People who are used to voting tend to continue to vote. People who are not used to voting tend to continue to not vote. Of especial concern is the youth vote and minorities with low voter participation. They are always the great theoretical electorates.

I'm sure they can be motivated but even at "highly" motivated their participation numbers still lag far behind their potential numbers. They are usually a part of an overall strategy but not "decisive." It has to be coupled with winning a majority or close to a majority of the habitual voters or significant segments/constituencies of the habitual voters.

On this I think we agree as its usually borne out in elections no matter where or how large.

Also, I'm pretty hesitant about Granger and Nagamootoo "rockin" the youth vote. Nagamootoo is an old PPP hand who appeals to older rural voters who remember Jagan. (Not my generation).

And I'm not sure David Granger, a conservative, Afro-Saxon intellectual is "cool." The fact that I'm a huge fan of David Granger tells me he is not cool to anyone.

P.S....In Guyana, I believe practically everyone gets their National ID card from GECOM and so become registered to vote as a secondary consequence of getting their principal ID document. Kinda like getting a driver's license in America and checking the box which puts you on the voter registration rolls (motor voter laws). Most of those people tend to not vote. They registered as a consequence of their primary transaction. I would hesitate to say black/mixed persons have a voter registration problem. How do these people survive without their National ID? Do you have anecdotal experience you can share on this? I'm more inclined to believe they're registered but not voting. The Peliminary Voter List is already huge and virtually impossible for a country of 740k people.

AFC will not get 4,000 votes proper in Region 6 this time.

PPP will win Region 1, 2, 3, 6 hands down.  Coalition will win - 4,7, 8 and 10 hands down.

TOSS UP - Region 9 and Region 5.

It all depends on how well the coalition does in Region 4, but them lazy ass carcass like Kathy Hughes not wuking, they only want Minister wuk.

If the coalition lose, we must all know is them lazy ass people in GT who failed the thousands who want a real change.

I do not know what Dagga and Naagga saddle themselves with, do real dead woods like Kathy the CAT and Pretty Bwoy Raphael.

If folks like Freddie Kissoon, and David Hinds, who are on the ground in Guyana, and not on a PC in the USA, say that this is a problem, then I will defer to them.  I do know that the PNC was quite slack, until recently, so this state of affairs will be no shock.

Your analysis of Granger and Nagamootoo are on point, but not the issue PRE election.  The youth might show up to vote in larger numbers than before, because they are the ones who are suffering the most under current conditions, and they for want to see change.  They are also less fixed in their loyalties.

40% of the voters are between 18-34.  If the turn out of these voters are only 50% of that of older voters, they will still be 20% of the vote  Given the narrow margins expected, its still enough to make a difference. 

Your points are more relevant AFTER the election.

1. The Jaganites who Nagamootoo brings don't trust Granger.  They just resent Jagdeo more.

2.  The PNC itself has its own divide between the Afro Saxons (black and mixed G/town elites) and the more grass roots blacks.  That hatchet was TEMPORARILY buried because of the elections. It will resurface.  Indeed the latter will be watching to see if Granger gives away "too much" to Nagamootoo, in his haste to buy the latter's loyalty.

But right now no one is interesting in that conversation.  This election is between those who are pro and those who are anti PPP.

What I do know is that this coalition buries the non Indian element of the AFC.   They will have to chose between domination by a Jaganite element, or a return to the PNC.

Just wanted to bring up this thread to see if anyone wanted to add any additional comments etc. since we first started this thread.

You were way off mark then, you way off mark now.

Goodbye PPP/C.

Bartica Yesterday

In 2011 the AFC lost 5400 votes in PNC strongholds, gained 10,500 in regions 5 and 6, 1,000 in Regions 8 and 9, and 800 in other regions. 

So of the 35,300 votes in 2011 one can argue that a net 11.500 came from Nagamootoo voters, the vast majority in Regions 5 and 6.

The Indians who supported the AFC in 2006 will support the coalition in 2015.  The ones at risk are the 11,500 which were picked up in 2011.

On that basis only 1/3 of the AFC votes are at risk.

I can develop a scenario where the APNU picks up more votes due to greater excitement among its base.  Also some learned their lesson in 2011 and would have been registered in the interim.

SCENARIO. The PPP continues to lose votes.  In 2006 they got 182k, continuing a decline evident from 2001.  So they get 160k votes (a much smaller decline than was the case in 2001 and  2006.  APNU adds 10k votes to reach 150k.  AFC wins 30k (losing 50% of the Nagamootoo voters).  The coalition gets 180k. 

The PPP would have to return to its 2006 levels.  Many of these people have migrated and its likely that many younger Indian voters might stay home.  Less paranoid about blacks than their parents, as they enjoy closer social and occupational ties with them.  Disgusted with the PPP and its blatant corruption.  But still suspicious of Nagamootoo's ability to control the PNC.

The APNU is riding a crest as evident by the presence of MORE younger faces in its rallies.  Traditionally PNC rallies were mainly middle aged black women.  Now we see more younger people, including men.  They dont trust Granger, but would rather Granger than the Ramotar/Jagdeo cabal, who terrify them. And as Jagdeo gets louder and shriller, they remember the Phantom days when some were shot merely for being on the streets at late hours. 

Like their Indian counterparts, they too are more comfortable with cross ethnic associations, so will trust Moses to be fair as he has demonstrated to them a willingness to work with blacks.  They are smart enough to know that the end of Indo racism will only come with a cross ethnic alliance.

We do not know who will show up and who will stay home.  We aso do not know how effective the PPP will be in rigging the election.

At this point either can win, though I argue that the momentum is with APNU AFC. I can however imagine that Jagdeo's beating of the drums of race war will have scared many Indians who didnt plan to vote, but who will now vote PPP.

I will however ask those Indians who are responding to Jagdeo's drums of race war what they think that a post election Guyana will be? Do they think that blacks will continue to remain quiet in the face of ethnic exclusion.  If the best chance of the electoral process to rid Guyana of the PPP fails, how do they think that these excluded blacks will react?

Most important.  Do Indians who respond to Jagdeo's screams for race war really think that they live in a bubble where only their concerns must be addressed?  Now that Indians are declining as a population, what do they think their long term prospects will be if blacks get angrier and angrier at PPP supporters?

Indians need to understand that unless the African ethnic insecurity dilemma is addressed, then neither will theirs be.  Do they plan the next 60 years to be like the last 60?

You see rev can scream because he lives in the USA.  For those living in Guyana they have to understand that living in a multi ethnic society they must not only look out for their own ethnic concerns, but also understand that the concerns of other groups must be addressed.

THE PPP IS NOT INTERESTING IN SOLVING THE PROBLEMS OF ETHNIC DISTRUST, AND IF ANYTHING WORSEN THEM!

THE PPP IS NOT INTERESTING IN SOLVING THE PROBLEMS OF ETHNIC DISTRUST

True.  They could have used their minority status to initiate a unity Govt.  However, they chose to go to elections, not to solve the national unity problem, but to see if they can win back the majority and run roughshod over parliament.

If they win, they will steal everything not bolted down.