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Former Member

Rohee says Opposition is biggest impediment to economic development – as PPP/C lauds Guyana’s economic success

By Vanessa Narine, Wednesday, 8 January 2014, Source

 

GUYANA has recorded an average five per cent growth in the economy, the highest in the Caribbean Region; and General Secretary of the People’s Progressive Party, Mr Clement Rohee, yesterday congratulated the Government on attaining this level of growth in the face of global economic realities and regional and local factors.

 

The PPP General Secretary, however, slammed the Opposition as the “greatest impediment to economic development and social progress” in Guyana.


He said: “Unfortunately, (there) continues to be the joint opposition in the National Assembly. They slashed $19B and $32B from the 2012 and 2013 Budgets respectively, thereby depriving the economy of nearly $51B that would have been spent, and from which the Guyanese people would have benefited.


“They have voted down massive foreign-funded capital projects, such as the Cheddi Jagan Airport Expansion Project, the specialty hospital, the Amaila Falls (Hydro power) project, hinterland airstrips expansions and renovations, etc.”


Rohee said the Government has had to make use of constitutionally enshrined powers and other methods to restore the projects. However, months elapsed before this was done, depriving the economy of these massive financial injections.


“The Amaila Falls Hydro Project was killed completely!” he said. “The capital cost of this singular project was 25 percent of the size of our economy.”


He added that the approach of the Opposition in not supporting these projects — particularly those involving international financiers and contractors — continues to “tarnish and besmirch” Guyana’s image as an investment destination.


“This is an image that we took nearly two decades to create,” he said. “Investors are no longer as willing to invest as they were before. Muri Brasil pulling out is a good example.”


Rohee also referred to the Opposition parties’ stance on the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Bill, which was returned and is currently before a Parliamentary Select Committee. “The economic consequences of this blacklisting are now being felt; and from all indications, they will gravely affect the economic trajectory of our country,” he said.


Rohee mooted that Guyana might have progressed further economically had the Opposition been “progressive, responsible and patriotic” in their approach to politics, rather than being “spiteful economic saboteurs who are masquerading” as political leaders.


He also acknowledged that greater progress, and hence prosperity, had been adversely affected by globalization and the adverse weather conditions affecting the agriculture sector’s productivity.


However, he lauded the Government’s diversification drive. Rohee said: “This (diversification) has minimised our dependence on a few industries, rendering our economy more robust and resilient. While we faltered in sugar, rice and gold recorded the highest production in our history. Tourism continues to grow, and our records of visitors remain one of the highest in the Region for 2013.


Construction continues to boom (and) information technology (ICT) remains one of the fastest growing areas in our new and emerging sectors.


“So while the Government has had to grapple with all these challenges, farmers, miners and workers right across the divide have stood by our side to achieve the phenomenal performance which our country has recorded.”

 

CONTEXTUAL CONSIDERATION
Rohee also called for the performance to be considered in a broader context in order to engender appreciation for Guyana’s success.


He said: “It is necessary that we examine this achievement against global economic realities as well as regional and local factors, all of which conspire in having an impact on our economy.


“It is a fact of notoriety that the world economy was plunged into its worst economic recession in recorded history approximately five years ago. Presently, while there have been some discernible improvements, many of the major economies — especially in North America and Europe — continue to reel from the impact of the recession. They continue to endure negative economic growth, with the attendant social repercussions which are the natural consequences of economic stagnation. Unemployment, inflation, debts, crime and poverty remain high; while income, social benefits and job creating opportunities remain low.


“The impact of this in the CARICOM Region, largely made up of small economies that are heavily dependent on tourism coming from these erstwhile powerful economies now in recession, (has) been devastating.”


Rohee said the economies of the Eastern Caribbean countries have been forced to seek balance-of-payments support to sustain basic social services to their people and to pay public servants’ wages.


“Last year Jamaica enlisted IMF (International Monetary Fund) support to fund its budget. The oil-rich Trinidad and Tobago is experiencing full employment with negative economic growth. Barbados was forced to announce recently that 3,000 public servants are likely to be laid off, along with a devaluation of the nation’s currency,” Rohee said.


He stressed that the entire CARICOM Region is in dire economic straits, and reiterated that it is against this background that Guyana’s eight years of consistent economic growth must be viewed, particularly with 2013’s five percent being the highest.


“Only then one gets an accurate picture of how well we have done,” Rohee said, as he called attention to the local factors that have contributed to Guyana’s success.


He said: “Indeed, our achievement has been publicly recognised and acclaimed by political leaders in the Region, regional commentators and the international financial institutions. It is imperative also that we examine certain local factors which have had an impact on the Guyanese economy.”

 

Rohee says Opposition is biggest impediment to economic development

From left are Zulfikar Mustapha, PPP General Secretary Clement Rohee, and Mr Manzoor Nadir

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The opposition caused this?

 

Sugar beyond the point of no return – Clive Thomas

 

Posted By Stabroek editor On January 8, 2014 @ 12:20 pm In Local News | No Comments

Economist Dr Clive Thomas says he is now more than ever convinced that the crisis in the sugar industry has gone beyond the point of no return.

In the first of a new series on the sugar industry in the last Sunday Stabroek, Thomas said “At this point of time (the beginning of 2014), I am now more than ever convinced that the crisis in the sugar industry has passed its tipping-point or point of no return. This means that all hopes for a rational, considered and ordered reform and reconstruction of the industry are lost.”

His prognosis comes in the wake of continuing bad news for the industry and the seeming lack of a clear way forward. This year’s sugar production ended at   186,807 tonnes, the lowest recorded in 22 years. In a year rife with industrial relations issues, mechanical problems and inadequate grinding capacity, the industry’s performance slid beneath GuySuCo’s minimum production rate of 232,000 tonnes of sugar for its international and local quotas, leaving the corporation severely indebted to banks and suppliers. Up to the end of August last year, sugar production was a miserable 81,000 tonnes. The flagship Skeldon factory which was hyped as having the capability to grind 350 tonnes of cane an hour was grinding just 185 tonnes per hour and management has reduced the future projected rate to 250 tonnes, calling this a far more realistic grinding rate.

In coming columns, Thomas will review issues he raised in a series of columns in 2011 and 2012. In last Sunday’s column, he said all industries and businesses go through life cycle changes and that GuySuCo and the wider sugar industry are at the industrial life cycle stage of post maturity and long-term secular decline. “As presently configured the country’s sugar business can no longer go forward as a viable commercial endeavor”, the economist asserted.

He said that the present structure of the industry was leading it to produce less and less sugar at a higher and higher cost. Noting the inevitable losses, he said this is clearly an unsustainable situation for the sugar company.

 

“In light of this both the EU’s continuing sugar assistance and government’s bailouts of GuySuCo can be viewed as seeking to rescue the industry from total collapse. Such a situation however represents, in essence, a classic case of throwing good money after bad. As worldwide experience has shown, while it is hard politically for governments to stop providing unwarranted subsidies to state industries, it is far worse for them to yield to those interests that are driving the need for the subsidies. The misallocation of national resources implicit in this posture is inevitably bad for everyone economically, but it will eventually also carry a devastating political cost, given the size and configuration of the sugar industry in Guyana’s political economy”, Thomas argued.

Annual subventions to GuySuCo despite continuing poor results have sparked concerns in the opposition parties and they are expected to look carefully at allocations in this year’s budget.

 

The issues that Thomas will revisit in coming columns include the vast expansion of the global sugar industry and particularly  the tropical cane sugar industry under a ‘transitional’ WTO-led international trading regime. He will also address the fact that even though there has been rapid growth of the global sugar industry “stagnation and decline have been the hallmarks of Guyana’s sugar industry”. Also to be covered are the key performance indicators  human resources utilization (labour and management); savings utilization (investment capital and financing); productivity (technical and technological); national resources utilization (geography and environment); as well as cultural (social and political) and what these say about the problems being experienced.

 

Thomas will also focus on the strategies designed by the authorities to turn around the sugar industry and how they have fared. These strategies are mainly the Sugar Modernization Project (SMP) and the later Turnaround Plan (Blue-print) initiated by GuySuCo’s Interim Board in 2009. The SMP includes the construction of the Skeldon Factory along with its related Berbice agricultural fields restructuring.

 

The SMP has been seen as an enormous and costly failure under the Jagdeo administration. The Skeldon factory which was built by a Chinese company has not operated anywhere to its rated capacity and a large sum has had to be spent on rectification works.

FM

Is he speaking as a Minister of Home Affairs or General Secretary of the PPP? Rohee is biting off more than he can chew. If he wanted to talk about economy and development, he should give up his Home Affairs Minister post. He is glutton for power and positions. Rohee is shooting hot air to make news. I dare him to act as brave as his mouth runs.

FM

Is Guyana on the Cusp of Economic Take-off?

NOVEMBER 13, 2011 | BY  | FILED UNDER AFC COLUMNFEATURES / COLUMNISTS 

 

By Dr Tarron Khemraj

 

INTRODUCTION
A very good friend of mine – Mr. Sukrishnalall Pasha – wrote a letter in the press arguing that Guyana is on the verge of economic take-off (SN Nov 1, 2011). Pasha is a good economist, the best the PPP or the Civic has. I take Pasha’s comments seriously because he is a competent technician, albeit the PPP will never appreciate his talents. He has gone through the technical and scholarly rigors unlike those in the PPP claiming to be economists. However, all my years of training, experience and writings on the Guyana economy tell me that we are not at the beginning of an economic take-off.
PRESENT SUCCESSES?
Pasha argues that Guyana’s economic performance has been remarkable in the past five years. We know that the growth rate was adjusted upward because of the rebasing of the data. I have no problem with this because my conversation with IMF economists confirms that the Fund is comfortable with the methodology used to rebase the GDP. The recent positive growth rates are driven mainly by high commodity prices, particularly for gold.
Guyana could have done even better had the Skeldon factory been performing as it should. The country is not being able to take advantage of very high market sugar price. Such high commodity prices will not be sustainable and we can expect commodity prices to decline as the US increases interest rates in about two years or earlier.


Guyana’s economic fortunes are dependent on exporting primary commodities. There has been no major new manufacturing entity established in the past nineteen years. Yet we are now hearing about economic take-off. The rate of private investment is declining. One factor for this is the limited inflow of foreign investments for new (or greenfield investments) entities. The little foreign investments that flow in are mainly re-investments by already established foreign firms or inflows to buy up old assets such as in the bauxite industry (brownfield investments).
Pasha also mentions the macroeconomic stability. Pasha and I wrote an economics paper that was accepted in a prestigious international economics journal – Economic Systems. In that paper we outlined several structural features in Guyana that helped to stabilize the G$/US$exchange rate from around 2004. These include the non-competitive nature of the commercial banking sector.
One or two banks are price leaders that can determine the exchange rate (we call it an oligopoly). We also noted that the banks find exchange rate stability to be a good thing because it prevents runaway inflation that can be harmful to their loan portfolio and profits. Remittances also play a very important role in macroeconomic stability because they are steady inflows that are not susceptible to sudden reversal. As we all know the other side of remittances is the erosion of human resources through migration. Therefore, while remittances might contribute to short-term stability of the exchange rate, they are symptoms of perpetual underdevelopment.
These structural factors are beyond the scope of government control. The stability therefore has to do with good luck and some good policy by the Bank of Guyana to the extent the central bank exploits the non-competitive foreign exchange market by working with the banks to ensure stability.


CORRECTING MAL-INVESTMENTS

It is not just the poor investment track record of the PPP that makes me pessimistic about the economic take-off. I am pessimistic because should Mr. Ramotar win the election he will need to spend several years correcting mal-investments or bad investments that were undertaken in the past few years. They will require lots of money to fix – money diverted away from other economic activities. This is as a consequence of inefficiency and bad decisions. The citizens suffer when the government makes bad investments. Indeed, the masses must rise up in anger over these policy failures.
The first mal-investment is the Skeldon sugar factory. Even the PPP’s Manifesto acknowledges that this has been a bad decision. As a matter of fact, Guyanese ought to be angry because it will take millions of US$ to fix the sugar factory that should have been done properly the first time. As is well known, the PPP invested US$200 million in a sugar factory, which has one favorable aspect – the bagasse electricity component. However, the thing just would not work to specification and as a result sugar production and job creation are under performing.
It was well known by the mid-1990s that the subsidized European sugar prices would have to go since they are inconsistent with WTO rules. Therefore, not only did the PPP make the mistake of investing deeply into a sugar factory, they built a flawed and problematic one. Millions of dollars that could have gone into ICT and other sectors will now have to go into fixing the Skeldon sugar factory.


Many infrastructure projects including roads, bridges and wharfs are not done well. They are deteriorating quickly after construction. These have to be rebuilt. There is still need for a proper four-lane highway to the airport as the extended East Bank road is really not a four-lane road but a wide two-lane. This road is typical of Third Worldism and an ad hoc piece of infrastructure project. They still have to make sure Fip Motilall finishes his US$15.4 million road through virgin forest. Of course, the cost of the Amaila Hydro Electricity Project is now US$835 million. The present demand for electricity is around 190MW. The population can therefore expect very high electricity price.


THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY
Along with Professor Clive Thomas, Pasha did a study that estimated the Guyana underground economy to be as large as the official one. This is the aggregate and no one really knows the composition. For example, while we can estimate the total we do not know whether 20% is smuggling of fuels or beers, and whether 50% is narco-trafficking.
However, this large underground economy presents a major problem for developing a modern economy.


Firstly, narco-trafficking results in the corruption and weakening of the state bureaucracy, which is crucial for implementing government plans and industrial policies. Secondly, legitimate businesses cannot compete with the underground economy since they have to pay profit and income taxes, unlike smugglers. They also do not borrow at 16% to finance working capital. As the WikiLeaks noted, Mr Roger Khan built housing schemes without bank finance. Now, how can a legitimate property developer compete with that? Thirdly, narco-trafficking leads to crimes and insecurity. This will be a major problem limiting any economic take-off.
INTERNAL PARTY STRUCTURE


Internal PPP politics always has a detrimental effect on the national economy. Should Mr. Ramotar win, he will need to spend several years keeping his Putin-like sponsor at bay. There will be many internal conflicts as the new President consolidates power unto himself and family members. The party’s Democratic Centralism does not allow for alternative ideas and new and innovative approaches. We saw that it was only the last four years of Jagdeo’s term that he started to think about a consistent economic plan – the Low Carbon Development Strategy.


As I have noted in past writings, the LCDS went up the wrong road and it failed to realize the necessary finance for development. The point is economic planning had to wait until Jagdeo controlled every aspect of the party and country. Guyana, meanwhile, suffered big time and she will continue to suffer unless the PPP is voted out of office.

FM
Originally Posted by JB:

This kind of activity is the biggest impediment

Where is your Daddy and Mamoo mansions deh? I remember you use to say that you only go to five star hotel anywhere but Guyana, and your Daddy own everything but the kitchen sink. You could really put on a show when there is no need for it. If you hate Guyana so much, please move out and take your bloody family with you. You grueling over other people prosperity. Irfaan wouldn't like that.

FM
Last edited by Former Member
Originally Posted by Cobra:
Originally Posted by JB:

This kind of activity is the biggest impediment

Where is your Daddy and Mamoo mansions deh? I remember you use to say that you only go to five star hotel anywhere but Guyana, and your Daddy own everything but the kitchen sink. You could really put on a show when there is no need for it. If you hate Guyana so much, please move out and take your bloody family with you. You grueling over other people prosperity. Irfaan wouldn't like that.

 

Why would I post my family's house here? Suffice to say we are sufficiently rich. And yes we stay in 5 star hotels. Jealous? 

FM
Originally Posted by Demerara_Guy:
Originally Posted by JB:

Is Guyana on the Cusp of Economic Take-off?

NOVEMBER 13, 2011 | BY  | FILED UNDER AFC COLUMNFEATURES / COLUMNISTS 

 

By Dr Tarron Khemraj

It has and is far beyond your comprehension, TK.

Sir...you have to write better. You make no sense. 

FM

Mr TK: "The point is economic planning had to wait until Jagdeo controlled every aspect of the party and country. Guyana, meanwhile, suffered big time and she will continue to suffer unless the PPP is voted out of office."

FM

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