baseman posted:

Stormborn posted:

baseman posted:

It's a pity Kasich did not resonate more, he is probably the most balanced and intelligent person on the trail, including the Dems!!  I hope when the dust settles, he gets a critical role in Trumps administration!  He does offer value!!

When all the possible options are examined; america always gets it right ( to paraphrase someone who paraphrased Sherlock Holmes). Trump will not win. Only morons want that kind of unstable extremism represented by Trump. He has managed to alienate a very large segment of the population hence his high negatives and cap among republicans. He would not make america great but ruin it.  America is already great but you have to make it whole to make it greater. He cannot keep his own party intact. Even America's allies are lampooning him as facile and  a gargantuan windbag. Kasich looks good among republicans but he is bad for democrats. The old white lady wins.

Obama needs to go.  Trump is a real and viable possibility, as anyone else, including [lying and indictable] Hillary!!

As Caribj said, don't count you lil fowls!!

No need to worry with you. The fact she wins will be a win enough.

baseman posted:

Obama needs to go . . .

Barack Obama has been elected twice and is barred from running in November

this Black man is, by law, President until February 2017 . . . your nothing-life existential distress at this reality notwithstanding

so, unless u are aware of some emergency grounds for his impeachment . . . huh?

baseman posted:

 

As Caribj said, don't count you lil fowls!!

Please don't misquote.  Bernie might beat Hillary, if he does well in the Midwest, where his populist foolishness might resonate.

Rubio is a lost cause. Trump will get the most delegates.  Whether he will get enough to become the nominee is the issue.  If the matter is resolved at the GOP convention, then Trump doesn't get it, or only does with a bruising battle.

FACT.  The moderate GOP do NOT want Trump!

So if Trump and Hillary are the nominees then Hillary wins. 

Vulgarity, ignorance of the facts, and racist violence at Trump events augur poorly for Trump. Hillary will take the same states which Obama won, and maybe NC and AZ on top of that. 

In fact the GOP attacks on Trump might be drawing blood, as Cruz seems to be strengthening.

Trump has a huge ego, so if it looks like he might lose to Cruz he might drop out.

caribny posted:

In fact the GOP attacks on Trump might be drawing blood, as Cruz seems to be strengthening.

Trump has a huge ego, so if it looks like he might lose to Cruz he might drop out.

To the contrary; Cruz is as opportunistic as any and may seek to grab some sort of victory from the establishment who hates him as well. If it comes to a vote at the convention; he will give Trump the winning edge for a negotiated VP position. He will not let his chances rest on his colleagues in the Republican party. He is as alienated from them as Trump.  Trump is in this  someway or another.

Stormborn posted:

caribny posted:

In fact the GOP attacks on Trump might be drawing blood, as Cruz seems to be strengthening.

Trump has a huge ego, so if it looks like he might lose to Cruz he might drop out.

To the contrary; Cruz is as opportunistic as any and may seek to grab some sort of victory from the establishment who hates him as well. If it comes to a vote at the convention; he will give Trump the winning edge for a negotiated VP position. He will not let his chances rest on his colleagues in the Republican party. He is as alienated from them as Trump.  Trump is in this  someway or another.

Cruz is strengthening, because as some in the GOP become appalled by Trump, they don't see Rubio as an alternative with his male genitalia and wetting pants vulgarity.  Kasich doesn't play well. So Cruz gets it by default.  Maine should have been a Trump win, but Cruz took it instead.

Trump isn't going to be VP.  The notion of being second fiddle to a man who he hates doesn't play. He doesn't need a job.

Come November Cruz will have to figure out how to get beyond his ultra right. Unless the Democrats paint him as truly dangerous (which I think he is, even more than I think that Trump is in fact) he might squeak by.

What should concern folks is the sharp drop of black turn out in the primaries. Does this mean the normal pre Obama black turn out? If it does the Democrats might lose. If blacks aren't inspired to turn out, neither might Hispanics, if it is a Cruz candidacy, as they mightn't see him as a threat.

What BOTH Hillary and Bernie need to know about blacks is;

1. We aren't all turned on by our pastors. That ageing female group who are have begun to die off. Young and middle aged blacks don't center their lives around pastor, and certainly NOT black males.

2. Blacks are MOST interested in issues of access of economic opportunity.  The Bush era hit blacks badly, and face it (Kari will give birth to a cow) they have NOT recovered under the Obama era.  If all they talk about is criminal justice then they don't excite.  The blacks who vote want jobs.  Unless they think that the Democrats can bring this, then they aren't inspired.

3. We don't have the spectacle of the GOP bashing the first black president, so blacks rushing to defend him, as we saw in 2012.  The lower turn out is because they aren't greatly inspired by Hillary, and see Bernie as an old out of touch white man.

It was the higher black turn out which got the Democrats FL,VA, OH, in 2012 and 2008, and NC in 2008.  And Latinos getting NM and CO.  If these groups show up at 2004 levels the Democrats have a problem.

And BTW the GOP establishment hate Cruz, but they prefer him because his interests align with theirs. He is just too rabid about this, and they wish that he would keep his Taliban-like religiousity to himself.

But they see a Trump making the same deals with the Democrats, that he has as a real estate developer. Trump is not a conservative man. He is a buffoon he will say what he needs to in order to get what he wants. He also has real animosity to the corporate world because he blames them for his bankruptcies.

None of the favorites of the GOP elites have worked out, with Rubio the next one to flame out.  If he loses FL he is out. If not he limps to the convention.  He is only marginally better off than is Kasich at this time.

redux posted:

baseman posted:

Obama needs to go . . .

Barack Obama has been elected twice and is barred from running in November

this Black man is, by law, President until February 2017 . . . your nothing-life existential distress at this reality notwithstanding

so, unless u are aware of some emergency grounds for his impeachment . . . huh?

Nah, I actually had hope in him and voted for him in 2008!  I was never sure he could do all he was saying, but wanted to offer him that chance!  But in fairness, back then, I had preferred Hillary for the candidate!!  I thought she had more substance, and having Bill again in the White House was not a bad thing!!

baseman posted:

redux posted:

baseman posted:

Obama needs to go . . .

Barack Obama has been elected twice and is barred from running in November

this Black man is, by law, President until February 2017 . . . your nothing-life existential distress at this reality notwithstanding

so, unless u are aware of some emergency grounds for his impeachment . . . huh?

Nah, I actually had hope in him and voted for him in 2008!  I was never sure he could do all he was saying, but wanted to offer him that chance!  But in fairness, back then, I had preferred Hillary for the candidate!!  I thought she had more substance, and having Bill again in the White House was not a bad thing!!

baseman, i couldn't care less about your mealy-mouth whining regarding 2008 . . . i came aboard this BB in late 2009

what i do know is the universal anti-Black racist crap you bathe in and shit daily on GNI

soon you will tell us that you're not really for Donald Trump and u wuz just playing

when u do so, i'll deconstruct and tell the board exactly why

caribny posted:

Stormborn posted:

caribny posted:

In fact the GOP attacks on Trump might be drawing blood, as Cruz seems to be strengthening.

Trump has a huge ego, so if it looks like he might lose to Cruz he might drop out.

To the contrary; Cruz is as opportunistic as any and may seek to grab some sort of victory from the establishment who hates him as well. If it comes to a vote at the convention; he will give Trump the winning edge for a negotiated VP position. He will not let his chances rest on his colleagues in the Republican party. He is as alienated from them as Trump.  Trump is in this  someway or another.

Cruz is strengthening, because as some in the GOP become appalled by Trump, they don't see Rubio as an alternative with his male genitalia and wetting pants vulgarity.  Kasich doesn't play well. So Cruz gets it by default.  Maine should have been a Trump win, but Cruz took it instead.

Trump isn't going to be VP.  The notion of being second fiddle to a man who he hates doesn't play. He doesn't need a job.

Come November Cruz will have to figure out how to get beyond his ultra right. Unless the Democrats paint him as truly dangerous (which I think he is, even more than I think that Trump is in fact) he might squeak by.

What should concern folks is the sharp drop of black turn out in the primaries. Does this mean the normal pre Obama black turn out? If it does the Democrats might lose. If blacks aren't inspired to turn out, neither might Hispanics, if it is a Cruz candidacy, as they mightn't see him as a threat.

What BOTH Hillary and Bernie need to know about blacks is;

1. We aren't all turned on by our pastors. That ageing female group who are have begun to die off. Young and middle aged blacks don't center their lives around pastor, and certainly NOT black males.

2. Blacks are MOST interested in issues of access of economic opportunity.  The Bush era hit blacks badly, and face it (Kari will give birth to a cow) they have NOT recovered under the Obama era.  If all they talk about is criminal justice then they don't excite.  The blacks who vote want jobs.  Unless they think that the Democrats can bring this, then they aren't inspired.

3. We don't have the spectacle of the GOP bashing the first black president, so blacks rushing to defend him, as we saw in 2012.  The lower turn out is because they aren't greatly inspired by Hillary, and see Bernie as an old out of touch white man.

It was the higher black turn out which got the Democrats FL,VA, OH, in 2012 and 2008, and NC in 2008.  And Latinos getting NM and CO.  If these groups show up at 2004 levels the Democrats have a problem.

It looks like a brokered convention and if so my previously stated scenario is the most likely outcome. If the delegates go to a second vote both Cruz and Trump are out and one of the other two are in with a likelihood of an establishment pick up for the Presidency.

Hillary and Bernie both know enough of the black vote. They have the best in that area with them. Hillary has the colored girls club, ( mainly Jesse Jackson graduates) who have been at the head of everything black since Clinton. You cannot get into any position except they sanction it. They also sit squarely in the DNC presiding like hens over every hire.Bernie also have good black operatives advising him.The republican side have rank amateurs who have no pull in black communities.

Blacks will turn out. Maybe, not at 2008 levels but sufficiently so to thwart any potential republican win. There is too much at stake.