Republican strategists acknowledge that Mitt Romney’s chance of winning the Presidency in November lies in him getting a divorce between President Obama and the Independent swing voters. This group includes registered Democrats who may feel some unease about the economy, and not necessarily Obama’s handling of it. Two important factors are involved in this marriage:
One is the likeability of Obama (he leads Romney by 54% to 31% in recent polling, numbers that remain stubbornly unmoved throughout and troubling for Romney
The other is that this group knows Obama inherited an historic mess of an economy.
Romney’s people knows that most Americans are emotionally attached to Obama and may be willing to give him more time. You noticed how Paul Ryan talked about the faded Obama poster hanging in the rooms of young adults? And also how Romney talked about his promotion of women in the workplace, and talking about Obama being a nice man but not in tune with our values? What bothers the Republican strategist is how after the bad job numbers and economic growth being so puny, and how people are disaffected in their future outlook, that Romney is not running away with this thing. I believe that Romney wants to win the Presidency by default. He will say little about what he proposes, hem and haw on the social issues he has a different position on with the Republican base, and lie about what he terms Obama’s failures. The latter is a double-edged sword, as Romney would be well-advised to remember how G. W. Bush painted Al Gore as not to be trusted after he made some statements that stretched credulity.
Here are some of those false and misleading situations.
- Deficit-reduction. Ryan was on the Simpson-Bowles Committee that had a $4 trillion proposal ($1 trillion in revenue enhancements and $3 trillion in spending cuts) and he voted “NO” to its proposals. It never passed Congress. Yet he blames Obama for doing nothing to reduce the Federal debt.
- AAA-rating no more. Ryan said Obama is to be blamed for America having its credit rating reduced for the first time in its history. This is where I think the voters will nail the Republicans for. It shamefully linked raising the debt-ceiling on spending cuts, and S & P said that tying fiscal concerns with a need for Congress to increase the Government’s borrowing to cover what Congress itself (not Obama) had approved for spending is the reason for it to reduce America’s credit rating.
- Medicare. Both Obama and Ryan proposed $716 billion in Medicare cuts. Obama seeks this reduction from the Providers’ agreement under the Affordable Care Act to reduce pricing, incentivize payment for quality care rather than fee-for-service (where a doctor can give you unnecessary procedures just to collect more money), and also premium payments to health insurance companies would be eliminated. So Obama’s $716 billion cuts would come from a reduction in reimbursements and not cutting service to seniors. Ryan’s plan is to offer vouchers and tell seniors go take your chances in the free market. This was estimated to cost seniors over $6,000 annually. So Ryan would change Medicare from what it is now.
- Foreign policy. Romney talks about Obama going on an apology tour, and throwing Israel under a bus. Enough said. The man has no clue of foreign policy.
- Ryan lied about a plant closing that happened under Bush, yet somehow Obama is responsible. Watch for the trust backlash on blatant lies like this one.
Romney has two other hurdles. One is that he is portrayed as not being in touch with ordinary people (the off-shore accounts and the Bain experience of closing companies after loading them up with leveraged debt. The other can be summed up in the James Carville-esque “It’s the demographics, stupid”. Zero Blacks polled say they will vote for him; he’s losing the Hispanic vote by a 40-point margin; he’s still behind in white college-educated voters and younger voters.
While Romney is like a divorce lawyer, he has shied away from being a marriage counselor to show the disaffected spouse how their lives can be better. Romney has failed on both counts – lying about Obama’s record and not telling the American public how he intends to cut the deficit, grow jobs, relieve the middle-class from its decline, stop Iran from going nuclear, influence events in Syria, etc.