April 9, 2022
It is hard to see a way forward for GuySuCo. From an output of 331,000 tons in 2002 to 58,000 in 2021, central government subsidies to the corporation now exceed total revenues. Speak to anyone who knows about the industry and they say not only is much of the machinery on closed estates beyond repair but the cane is simply not there to support the factories. It will take a brave investor to go into sugar and it is likely the lands will be used for other purposes as we have seen at Enmore with a fabrication facility for the oil industry – a potent symbol of how Guyana is changing.
It is the end of an era and one that is portrayed with a nostalgia it does not deserve perhaps because those who get to reminisce were often the privileged employees. For the rest King Sugar has been the cruellest master, destroying tons of human bodies over the centuries. The archaic and often brutal labour conflicts which resulted in events such as the Enmore Massacre have not changed much. Then there is the diet heavy on carbohydrates to fuel cane cutters causing endemic diabetes, and the culture of alcohol as a necessary release from the mud and drudgery of having to feed the ravenous maws of the factories.
One can discern the political considerations for the PPP/C to keep this industry on life support, even promising in its manifesto to reopen estates, and indeed there are more factors than just money. Preservation of communities and families being one. But when an industry has been so clearly unprofitable for so long and with no realistic path to profitability, at some point the workers need to be told the truth if they don’t already see the writing on the wall.
One bright spot in recent years has been the rice industry which benefited from a highly favourable oil for rice arrangement with Venezuela brokered by then President Bharrat Jagdeo. Hectares under cultivation rose from 135,515 in 2010 to 185,702 in 2020.
However that agreement waned in 2015 and within the past year production costs have gone up sharply with fertiliser doubling in price, diesel for tractors up from $185 to $245 per litre and day labour rates also soaring as the country sees an imbalance in the labour market. This recently spurred some protests in March as the first crop came in and Mr Jagdeo, ever attuned to discontent among his base, spent two days on the Essequibo Coast listening to residents and promising some 800 part-time jobs in the region.
Meanwhile, the fishing sector has also seen declines primarily within the sub-sector of near-coast fishermen from rural areas with numerous complaints of low catches and again higher fuel costs. The government this week handed out 170 hampers to families on the East Coast after fishermen said they were in need of basic food items. The countryside is hurting.
Agriculture (forestry and fishing, as well as the cultivation of crops and livestock production) declined as a percentage of GDP from 43% in the early 1990s to 16.8% in 2020. This has occurred in tandem with significant migration rates out of the four main rural/coastal areas. In 1980, the population of Regions 2, 3, 5, and 6 totalled 353,335. By 1991 it was 333,251; 2002 328,437 and by 2012 313,422. The highest rate of migration has occurred from Region Six which has seen its population decline from 152,238 in 1980 to 109,431 in 2002. Census records also point to internal migration predominantly to Region Four among young females.
However the biggest factor by far has been external migration. We can get a sense of the enormity of this by looking at US government records that show the numbers of Guyanese gaining legal permanent status over the decades -1980-1989: 85,885; 1990-1999: 74,407; 2000 to 2009: 70,373; 2010 to 2019: 53,921. This is a total of 284,587 people over 40 years and does not include illegal “backtrack” migration to the US, nor migration to Canada, the UK, Caricom states and Venezuela. Even with the discovery of oil and all the talk of impending prosperity and opportunities an average of 4500 Guyanese still chose to seek residence in the United States between 2017 and 2019.
The government clearly knows what is going on as we hear constantly about the need for young people to take up new forms of agriculture such as marine cage farming, black belly sheep and swamp shrimp. President Ali is from the country and one senses his genuine desire to preserve rural ways of life. Agriculture also makes economic sense as it offers diversification of the economy and resilience against the volatility we have already experienced from oil prices. Cash crops in particular offer the most promise for growth as the demand from the oil sector grows. However we are already seeing large scale farms beginning to dominate rather than smaller family-run operations.
The development trend for rural communities is not encouraging and their continued hollowing out along with the silence that has descended on the sugar factories must be having not only an economic impact but instilling a fatalistic attitude in the population. It is ironic at a time when Guyana’s future looks so bright that many collectively hanker for “the good old days”. It is imperative agriculture and rural ways of life are not only preserved but seen to thrive.
The government will need to do more to stem migration. Encouraging diaspora remigration is a priority but there is only so much a government can do to shape human behaviour.
The encouragement of oil and other industries in rural areas will help and as such the Wales Industrial Estate is one step as well as the Berbice shore base if only for the jobs and economic activity. Call centres also have the potential to keep young people, in particular, in their communities. Another aspect of what has been a cycle of agricultural decline and migration is the effect on families and mental health. In this regard the administration would do well to expand and focus services on child and young adult welfare. Systemic income support for poorer rural citizens will also likely be needed in the interest of balancing incomes with those in greater Georgetown which is already directly benefiting from energy sector activity and simply because it is unconscionable that in a country with such wealth that any citizen should be in extreme poverty. These measures may not be enough to stop more internal migration as the lights of the big city get brighter, although they might convince younger people not to leave Guyana entirely.