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US sanctions will squeeze Russia β€” but they’re unlikely to stop the war in Ukraine

The harshest penalties ever imposed on Russia will still have their limitations.

Mitwah

The US and its allies impose long-term pain on Russia during an immediate crisis

Biden said Thursday that the US and its allies are β€œin full and total agreement” in its response to Russia. In addition to the US actions, the United Kingdom has imposed its toughest sanctions ever on Russia, which include asset freezes on some of Russia’s largest banks and target more than 100 individuals. Canada targeted more than 60 individuals, and has canceled export permits. The European Union’s foreign policy chief said the bloc would impose β€œthe harshest package of sanctions we have ever implemented,” including freezing assets, targeting certain sectors, and imposing export controls.

β€œWe will limit Russia’s ability to do business in dollars, euros, pounds, and yen, to be part of the global economy,” Biden said. β€œWe’ll limit their ability to do that. We’re going to stop the ability to finance and grow the Russian military. We’re going to ... impair their ability to compete in a high-tech 21st-century economy.”

These sanctions build on others introduced earlier in the week, which included financial sanctions, asset freezes and travel bans for oligarchs, and the end to the certification (and the US’s sanctioning) of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

As tough as this sanctions package is, it reflects a circumspection that many experts and observers predicted ahead of Russia’s invasion. It does not include some of the most intense options, like an energy blockade or cutting Russia off from SWIFT. Ukraine and some European countries have pushed hard for that step in the wake of Russia’s invasion, though reportedly Germany, Italy, and some other EU countries are blocking it.

Still, experts said that the US’s decision to cut off Russia’s major financial institutions β€” including Sberbank and VTB β€” makes the need for removing Russia from SWIFT less urgent. β€œIf you include the major banks, that means those banks cannot do business with the major financial institutions in the West,” said Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. β€œIt doesn’t really matter whether they have access to SWIFT or not, because the major damage is done.” However, some have noted the carve outs for energy and commodity transactions in these financial sanctions which blunt some of the sting for Russia, but also for Europe.

Overall, these penalties do not rise to the level that was imposed on Iran during then-President Donald Trump’s β€œmaximum pressure” campaign, they are extraordinary considering Russia’s much larger role in the global economy. Penalties on Russia’s largest banks will slam the economy. β€œThis is going to mean higher interest rates and less access to capital throughout Russia. It is going to depress economic activity in Russia,” said Schott said. In other words, this will trickle down and mean real pain for ordinary Russians, who had no say at all in Putin’s decisions.

The list of oligarchs and elites being targeted is quite long, though Putin will probably try to take care of oligarchs targeted by Western sanctions. Biden’s announcement of export controls will deny Russia access to critical technologies, especially in sectors like defense. Partners in Asia had also indicated earlier this week that they will participate in export controls on technologies like semiconductors, which will squeeze Russia.

It’s unclear how this strategy will play out in the coming weeks, especially if the Ukraine conflict becomes as bloody and chaotic as some fear. Russia may well attempt to retaliate against the West for these sanctions, which could lead to economic countermeasures or hybrid warfare tactics like cyberattacks or disinformation campaigns, potentially opening up another front in this conflict.

This sanctions package goes far, but there are still questions about how tough they will be in practice. Ukraine has already demanded more pressure, including cutting off Russia’s oil and gas, and its full removal from SWIFT. And even if these penalties are damaging to Russia, they are unlikely to be enough to stop Putin from carrying out this single-minded campaign against Ukraine right now.

Source:

Mitwah
@cain posted:

Our tough guy Trudeau will do some serious damage to Russia. All Russia alcohols are being removed from the LCBO shelves, that'll inflict some serious pain.

Might not be enough to stop him. It can get compounded if the other allies follow suit and heeds to Ukraine's call to cut off Russia's oil and gas and it's full removal from SWIFT.

Let's see if the Oligarchs will scatter when  light is shone upon them.

Mitwah
@Mitwah posted:

Might not be enough to stop him. It can get compounded if the other allies follow suit and heeds to Ukraine's call to cut off Russia's oil and gas and it's full removal from SWIFT.

Let's see if the Oligarchs will scatter when  light is shone upon them.

The reality is that most of the oligarchs are actually cuddled by the West, especially Britain.  Their vast fortunes are stashed away or "invested" in the West. 

T

Gas prices have gone through the roof. In the next month or so we can see it move much more when the summer gas comes in plus it is in high demand during summer. Yes.. there is a different gas used during the winter.

Gasoline starts to break down after one month..using a product called Seafoam (crappy tire carries this it is on sale this week) gives gas a longer life.

cain
Last edited by cain

Russia has over 1000 KFC restaurants and 900 McDonald's restaurants. These restaurant chains alone send back around 6 billion US dollars every year in profits to the USA alone. Russia also has a hold bunch of other US restaurant chains like Subway. Think of it. Who will be hurt America or Russia with the sanctions.

If Russia keeps up with the attacks on nuclear stations they will soon have radiation burgers on their menus. Who will be hurt America or Russia?

cain

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