Mitt Romney has been singularly evasive on his message of who he is and what he will do. He has used the converse “Good guy, but Obama is in over his head and he is bankrupting the nation and stifling the job creators”. Even the GOP heavyweights – the Bush people and the TEA party and Evangelicals – are unconvinced and muted in their support. His recent immigration response has even served to alienate Marco Rubio. Romney has not even chosen to run on his Massachusetts Governor’s record and he may be shying away from Bain Capital. Hell, he’s even run away from the hero of the Movement Conservativism – George W Bush. But then again, G W himself dishonored that political capital and thus we see the TEA party, Grover-Norquist-led “severe conservative” Romney.
The 2004 elections turned out not to be a referendum on Bush so much as it was about his Swift Boat attack ads, a weak John Kerry and his shifting positions on the issues. You can easily substitute Obama for Bush and Romney for Kerry and you can see where there is a string argument that 2012 can be like 2004 where the incumbent’s record is not the issue. This is why Obama is putting forth the contrast in the two visions – the Romney extremism (which he had to adopt to win the Primaries and slow to pivot to the middle – see his immigration retort and the individual mandate ruling) versus his expansionism now and fiscal discipline in the longer term.
Then there is the question of demographics. This past sSring has shown a strengthening of the re-alignment that started in 2008 for the Democrats. The women’s issues that the Republicans seem unresponsive to; the Latino alientation; and then there is Romney’s seeming disconnected life style from ordinary Americans. You’re already seeing the Bain attack ads in some swing States.
Obama is yet to focus on the achievements of his first term. This will be the coup de grâce.
- The auto bailout that saved an industry and preserved over 1 million jobs.
- Working towards a stable credit market and rebuilding the housing market.
- Strengthening consumer protection following the predatory environment in the run up to the 2008 financial crisis.
- The largest energy output under his Administration.
- The education reforms
- The immigration measures for under-30 illegals.
- The historic health care Bill
The polls are showing a sturdy Obama lead where it matters – in the swing States of Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, Carolinas, Ohio, Iowa, the south-west States of Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, etc. Obama only need to pick up one or two of those to reach the magical 270 Electoral College votes.