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FM
Former Member

Something is not right with the economy

When the PPP government decided that it was appointing a National Economic Council to be headed by former President Bharrat Jagdeo, critics of the government said it was just a ploy to give the former President a hand on the levers of the administration of the country.
The need for such a Council was also called into question. The Council, in fact, never seemed to have gotten going, vindicating the sentiments of the critics of the government.
It was therefore surprising that when the new government came into office, one of its first acts was to appoint an economic advisory council, similar to that which the PPP had planned to implement.
But just like the fate of the National Economic Council, the APNU+AFC’s Economic Advisory Council seems to have been stillborn. The public has heard nothing from and about the council since its formation.
The economy is, of course, on even keel. The economy is expected to continue its growth based on mining investments that the PPP would have made while it was in power and which are now bearing fruit. But even with the economy likely to show growth for the rest of the year and into next year, there are a number of worrying signs which require attention.
The first is the lack of major investments in the economy. APNU may be tying its hopes on the discovery of oil. But oil prices have dipped so low that even if oil is found in commercially feasible quantities, it makes little sense for the oil companies to invest in drilling at this stage. Nothing is therefore likely to emerge on the petroleum front for at least the next ten years.
Gold alone cannot push the economy beyond the next three years. Output is likely, even with the new mines in the pipeline, to taper off within the next three years, but even if a King Solomon-type mine is found this will not be addressing an underlying fault line in the economy: the lack of purchasing power on the part of consumers.
Money is simply not circulating in the economy. An invasion of tourists is likely in the next couple of weeks. The money that they will spend, the hosting of the CPL final and the hosting of matches in the Tri-Nation series is not likely to change the situation in the country.
Purchasing power cannot be imported. There is stagnation in commerce. Everyone is feeling the pinch. Inflation has remained stable, indicating that the problem is a circulatory one. Money is not circulating in the economy and capital flight is not the answer, because the exchange rate has not been moving up and down.
The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Business have not offered any answers to what is happening in the commercial sector. Perhaps they do not know. Perhaps they do not share the assessment that business is down. They should.
Even the vendors are complaining. In fact, a worrying sign has developed. Itinerant vending is springing up all over the country. One explanation is that people are testing the waters to see whether the government will clampdown on them. The second is the more realistic explanation: people are feeling the squeeze and really have no other choice but to go and make a hustle.
The Ministry of Finance needs help. It should not get too comfortable by the fact that growth will be sustained right through to 2017. It should be worried about the lack of investment in the economy. The Ministry should be concerned about the fact that money is not circulating even though two massive national Budgets were passed in the short space of eight months.
Something is drastically wrong with the economy. An emergency meeting of the Advisory Economic Council needs to be summoned. The experts need to look at the numbers and decide whether there is need for any adjustments, including any austerity measures.
The government should not be deceived by the growth numbers. They know all too well how misleading those numbers can be.

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Well to quote Kari " the PPP left a 60s economy".  I will go even further.  My father went to school in the 30s.  He learned that the chief exports were sugar, bauxite, rice, gold and timber.

We have the same economy, the only difference being that rice and gold are more important than they once were.

Of course the bigger problem is that neither APNU nor the AFC have the brains to change this trajectory.   Granger knows about writing articles on Guyanese history, and is a very competent military man.  I don't know what Nagamootoo is good for. 

When Dominic Gaskin was appointed I heard those who supported the coalition sighing loudly, and expressing worry.

I remember arguing with the AFC faithful about why Tourism got a whole ministry, and why there was no foreign trade.  I also wondered what this "Ministry of Business" was all about.  And why no Ministry of Economic Development.  I wondered why Clive Thomas was selected as their economic genius, and not some one more up to date with contemporary global economics.

I would have sooner put some one like Gerhard in charge of the business sector than Dominic, whose main qualifications seem to be that he is married to Granger's daughter.

I fully expect the PPP frauds to pretend as if all was well under the PPP.

Well the PPP lucked out with gold, just as APNU AFC were hoping to luck out with oil.  But as with all things, commodities can be a very fickle friend.

 

FM

What a bunch on incompetent clowns, PNC/AFC.  Suddenly, May 2015 Guyana turn upside down and it's the PPP doing.  Kari is a clown and write to sound smart.

I don't think even Harmon thinks so, alyuh got more headache coming.

The PNC/AFC have their work cut out for them.  This is a debacle take 2 in the making if they don't act and act fast and decisively.  The silent power of the PPP's constituency is at work.  The PNC constituency does not have the business prowess, capability or reach to "stir the pot".  The PNC came in thinking they will resurrect "Burnham era part two", they are dead wrong.  There are no large multinational corporations to nationalize and bleed, there is no cold-war blank check to do as they wish.  The center of gravity of economic power in Guyana is dead-center in Guyana and as they said, don't count on oil for a long time.  The Saudis are setting the stage for a protracted low priced crude environment which will derail any rush to exploration.

 The PNC has to go back to they same people they villainize as associates of the PPP during their term as opposition and get them on board.  The AFC, with their venomous hatred for the PPP does not serve the PNC well, and they will soon realize.  The PNC will eventually see the sense in stop persecuting members of the PPP and turn to them to help get things moving.  But this will not be for free.

 If the PNC think this is bad, let them try to pull off a "riggery" come 2020 as the did pre-1992.  The pen is mightier than the sword!!

FM
Last edited by Former Member
caribny posted:

I would have sooner put some one like Gerhard in charge of the business sector than Dominic, whose main qualifications seem to be that he is married to Granger's daughter.

Apt assessment.

FM
caribny posted:

I would have sooner put some one like Gerhard in charge of the business sector than Dominic, whose main qualifications seem to be that he is married to Granger's daughter.

 

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The business sector should be headed by someone who under business, corporate taxes and corporate law.  Is there a strategy for attracting business investment?  Exactly what is the role of this position?

FM
Bibi Haniffa posted:

Whoever wrote this article has a good head on his/her shoulders.  The government should take note.  

The AFC/PNC clowns are hard of hearing. They are clueless.

FM
yuji22 posted:
Bibi Haniffa posted:

Whoever wrote this article has a good head on his/her shoulders.  The government should take note.  

The AFC/PNC clowns are hard of hearing. They are clueless.

Your statement illustrates the low level of intellect typical of the PPP.

FACT.  The PPP failed to transform Guyana's economy, and were lucky that gold prices soared, dragging Guyana out of the stagnation that typified the economy between 2000-2005.

FACT. APNU AFC lacked the intellectual capacity to drag the economy out of he malaise that the PPP left it in.

You look like an idiot lambasting this gov't and praising the PPP for got economic stewardship.  The PPP did NOT cause gold prices to soar, nor did they put gold in the ground!

FM
caribny posted:
yuji22 posted:
Bibi Haniffa posted:

Whoever wrote this article has a good head on his/her shoulders.  The government should take note.  

The AFC/PNC clowns are hard of hearing. They are clueless.

Your statement illustrates the low level of intellect typical of the PPP.

FACT.  The PPP failed to transform Guyana's economy, and were lucky that gold prices soared, dragging Guyana out of the stagnation that typified the economy between 2000-2005.

FACT. APNU AFC lacked the intellectual capacity to drag the economy out of he malaise that the PPP left it in.

You look like an idiot lambasting this gov't and praising the PPP for got economic stewardship.  The PPP did NOT cause gold prices to soar, nor did they put gold in the ground!

The "high" level PNC intellect not looking too good bai!!  Must be an embarrassment to the fine schools they attended!!

FM
ba$eman posted:
 

The "high" level PNC intellect not looking too good bai!!  Must be an embarrassment to the fine schools they attended!!

Of course the communist trained Jagdeo shows all the limitations of that education.  You cannot even point out ONE area of economic success of the PPP.

FM
caribny posted:
yuji22 posted:
Bibi Haniffa posted:

Whoever wrote this article has a good head on his/her shoulders.  The government should take note.  

The AFC/PNC clowns are hard of hearing. They are clueless.

Your statement illustrates the low level of intellect typical of the PPP.

FACT.  The PPP failed to transform Guyana's economy, and were lucky that gold prices soared, dragging Guyana out of the stagnation that typified the economy between 2000-2005.

FACT. APNU AFC lacked the intellectual capacity to drag the economy out of he malaise that the PPP left it in.

You look like an idiot lambasting this gov't and praising the PPP for got economic stewardship.  The PPP did NOT cause gold prices to soar, nor did they put gold in the ground!

Cut the bullying tactics because they are not working anymore.  And Gold was not the only thing that made the PPP successful.  They have the people with the right expertise to make it happen.

Bibi Haniffa
Bibi Haniffa posted:

Whoever wrote this article has a good head on his/her shoulders.  The government should take note.  

Which head?  

What shoulder?

Why should the Government listen?

Who should the listen to you?  We got Colonel Gary Best to listen to.  And General this and General that and we have no time with civilians.

We will rig and you shall be frigged.  What you say?

 

FM
Georgie posted:
Bibi Haniffa posted:

Whoever wrote this article has a good head on his/her shoulders.  The government should take note.  

Which head?  

What shoulder?

Why should the Government listen?

Who should the listen to you?  We got Colonel Gary Best to listen to.  And General this and General that and we have no time with civilians.

We will rig and you shall be frigged.  What you say?

 

I say that you sound like you are about to have a mental breakdown.

Bibi Haniffa
Bibi Haniffa posted:
 

.  And Gold was not the only thing that made the PPP successful.  

And yet she cannot tell us what else other than gold.  Drugs?

Because it certainly was NOT the transformation of the economy!

FM

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