Majority Guyanese opposed to AFC’s no-confidence motion – NACTA poll – says PPP/C likely to return with parliamentary majority
THE majority of the Guyanese populace is opposed to the Alliance For Change (AFC) sponsored no-confidence motion and if there is a move to early general elections, the Donald Ramotar Administration could return to Parliament with a majority, according to a North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) poll conducted last month.
Asked if they approve of the Opposition’s no- confidence motion to bring down the Government and hold new general elections, 57 per cent of the respondents said “no” with 26 per cent approving of it and 17 per cent not offering a response. VIEW ON ELECTION RESULTS According to the results of the poll, released over the weekend, a majority is in support of President Donald Ramotar being allowed to complete his term, noting too that a move to general elections may not result in a significantly different composition in the National Assembly, which sees the combined Opposition with the one-seat majority. It added that a huge majority of the voters feel the ruling People’s Progressive Party/ Civic (PPP/C) will win re-election, but they are divided over whether the PPP will win with a majority or with a simple plurality and or whether it will lose any seat. “Voters feel that Partnership for National Unity (APNU)/ People’s National Congress Reform (PNCR) will run second in new elections and the AFC third, losing several of its seats and thereby enhancing the PPP’s chance of winning a majority. Additionally, the poll noted that nearly a third of the voters feel the PPP/C will regain its majority support, which it lost to the AFC in 2011, with a third saying it will garner only a plurality, while a fifth of the respondents contend that the PNCR will win a plurality because of the division in the traditional PPP base. Less than one per cent said the AFC will win a plurality with many expressing the feeling that the AFC will pull enough votes from the PPP traditional base to enable the APNU/PNCR to win a plurality and retake power like it did in December 1964. SNAP ELECTIONS OUTCOME Asked if they think the results of new elections will be significantly different from the 2011 outcome, 52 per cent said “no” with 37 per cent saying “yes” and 11 per cent saying “not sure”. Asked what they think will be the outcome of snap elections, 30 per cent said the PPP/C will regain its majority with an additional 34 per cent saying the PPP/C will win but with a plurality. Some 21 per cent feel the PNCR will win a plurality and an additional 2 per cent said PNCR will win a majority, with less than one per cent saying the AFC will win the elections. The remaining 12 per cent expressed no opinion or are uncertain about the outcome. OTHER ISSUES The findings of the poll also revealed that the African and mixed voter-group are upset with APNU leader, Brigadier (rtd.) David Granger for allowing himself to be “manipulated” and led by his junior AFC partners, rather than take an independent leadership position for his party on several issues, particularly on the no-confidence motion. Analogously, Indian and Amerindian voters are upset with the AFC for teaming up with the APNU/PNCR, and they plan to register this upset, for what they describe as an “unholy alliance”, at the next election. Simultaneously, many Indians have expressed anger with the PPP/C for “neglecting them” and attending to the interests of the PNCR supporters, but they are more upset with the AFC than with the PPP/C, saying the AFC has misled them over policy positions it took that are against theirs and the national interest. The survey also polled voters to obtain the approval and favorability ratings of President Donald Ramotar and Granger, popular support for the parties in the event of a general election, as well as support for aspiring Presidential candidates of the AFC. CRITICAL ISSUES The poll also showed that voters are overwhelmingly of the view that the three parties should focus on critical issues, such as money laundering, crime, job creation, development, suicide, Chikungunya and other health-related matters, among other issues. The poll randomly interviewed 610 voters to yield a demographically representative sample – 44 per cent Indians, 30 per cent Africans, 16 per cent Mixed, nine per cent Amerindians, and one per cent other races of the population. The poll was conducted in face-to-face interviews and was coordinated by Dr. Vishnu Bisram, pollster, newspaper columnist, and educator in New York, United States. The data of the poll was analyzed at a 95 per cent significance level, yielding a statistical sampling error of plus or minus four per cent. NACTA has no affiliation with any political party and has been involved in several community activities in America, Guyana and other countries. NACTA has been conducting independent polls in Guyana since the 1992 elections. It also has been conducting polls throughout the Caribbean with Messrs Bisram and Ramracha conducting surveys in Guyana and internationally for 25 years. They have extensive experience in writing and conducting research surveys and analyzing politics with direct experience in political affairs having themselves been elected to various executive positions in student government in New York over several years.
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