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Sugar: A case for a loss-leader


 I read with interest over the years the debates over the sustainability and viability of the Guyana sugar industry. Firstly, it is clear, on a stand-alone basis, sugar is not a straight-line profitable industry. How could it be with costs running at US$800/tonne and being sold for US$300/tonne? Clearly, each tonne of sugar contributes negative US$500 to the industry.
Sugar, though loss-making, is a precious hard-currency earner for Guyana; as such, the importance of sugar should be taken in the context of its overall macroeconomic contribution.
Sugar, like any other basic farm commodity, barring a global unplanned shortfall, is destined to remain a loss-leader. However, in the case of Guyana (and other developing nations), such loss-leaders are key hard-currency earners making them critical components of the national development equation.


And this will remain so, until an alternate more profitable forex earner takes its place. Guyana has long been faced with this inversion where this critical forex earner costs more to produce than it sells for in the open market, the viability which was propped by the European pricing model. On the surface, and without much thought, one would cast aside and close the doors as who wants to be making a US$500 loss (current state).
This is true from a micro-economic standpoint, from the perspective of an individual or individual firm. A commercial enterprise would have made a decision based on the optimal allocation of resources and its myopic choices. The question for Guyana, are there any alternatives for the deployment of the US$800 input costs translating to a higher value than the US$300 forex revenue? The answer is no. And bear in mind sometimes, even commercial enterprises entertain the concept of “loss-leaders” where specific products, portfolios or even units are “carried” as they augment the more profitable segments of a portfolio.


Sugar, in the true national sense, is a loss-leader, not by choice but by national necessity – the necessity to earn hard currency. There are no real alternatives to deploying the resources to a more profitable forex-generating venture. Had the sugar industry been in private hands and without price support, it would have likely been closed a long time ago. Given the industry is in Government hands and the Government enjoys national economic and taxing jurisdiction, this transforms a loss-making industry like sugar into a loss-leader in the general economy.


In looking further at sugar and the Guyana reality, one must consider the US$800 input cost as the end of the cost chain, i.e. it is what it is, US$800. Furthermore, one must consider, this US$800 as primarily local input costs, such as labour, land, energy (from bio-mass), etc. There are some imported costs such as depreciation on imported capital equipment, replacement parts and service material, fertilisers and other supplies.
However, given the labour intensiveness and methods employed, the presumption is, most of the costs are locally derived in Guyana Dollars. The value chain for sugar itself is almost fully captured in Guyana. Packaging and branding could add value, but that presents its own set of challenges. Operational excellence through local input cost optimisation and field output productivity improvements are essential to improving the value proposition on the cost side.
In a nutshell, there are no easy answers, no cut-and-dry solutions to the economic reality of Guyana. Closing sugar is not an option. As long as Guyana remains a basic commodity agrarian economy, the loss-leader model is the only option. As long as it remains an economy dependent on loss-leader products, duties, VAT and other taxes will remain high.


The challenge of any such government is to remain alert, vigilant and discerning in how it generates and consumes its hard currency. Such economies need thoughtful minds and deliberate actions to ensure resources are consumed in ways that create value. There is little room for wastage and for trial and error. The Government needs to keep its “eyes on the ball” and understand the inter-connectivity of the various components of the economic fabric. The sugar industry is still a critical strand and, as such, flow-back subsidies are part and parcel of that economic model.
Barring a hot commodity like oil at higher world prices than today, the only other hope is to develop the local economy beyond mere basic commodities. Guyana needs to add verticals and depth to its traditional economy, built on its traditional products.


Guyana needs to leverage the forex earned from the loss-leaders and from windfalls like gold, etc, to invest and create further exportable value from domestic input sources. To do this, Guyana needs cheap and reliable power, good governance and a skilled workforce capable of creating value through differentiated products and services for which customers are willing to pay sustainable prices in the Region or wider markets.

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Tell this ass to quit  the pontificating on jumble economics. Most of the hard cash comes from remission and if crime was not as horrific as it is that foreign influx would double. That number for remission is around 450 million or almost a half of the real economy.

 The government needs to firm up the money exchanges in guyana where the dealers are washing drug loot. This crap about the foreign exchange being maximized on the nations working class back is just the kind of crap you would expect from the PPP

FM
Last edited by Former Member

How could it be with costs running at US$800/tonne and being sold for US$300/tonne? Clearly, each tonne of sugar contributes negative US$500 to the industry.

How long can this continue?

FM

I don't know who the writer of the article is but he ought to explain if the hard currency cost is less than the final hard currency revenue per tonne. Let's say that the hard currency cost to G$ cost is 50/50. That means Guyana spends US$400 to earn US$300 per tonne even if some fairy Godmother were to write off the local currency cost per tonne.

 

This approach also means that Guyana is incapable of building industries that can provide US$ revenues.

Kari
RiffRaff posted:

How could it be with costs running at US$800/tonne and being sold for US$300/tonne? Clearly, each tonne of sugar contributes negative US$500 to the industry.

How long can this continue?

Imagine if they do real productive agriculture, double the sale of fish to Miami (minus the drugs) and actually begin to fabricate products from our ornamental woods rather than give it to the Chinese! If we sell more than rice but rice products, marin, cereals, bran, oil stock feed we maximize money from rice. If we use one half of our sugar cane for ethanol/methanol to create biodiesel we get a better use of sugar, help create a green economy and halve our carbon footprint.  Sugar can be used for lots of other products also.

FM
Kari posted:

I don't know who the writer of the article is but he ought to explain if the hard currency cost is less than the final hard currency revenue per tonne. Let's say that the hard currency cost to G$ cost is 50/50. That means Guyana spends US$400 to earn US$300 per tonne even if some fairy Godmother were to write off the local currency cost per tonne.

 

This approach also means that Guyana is incapable of building industries that can provide US$ revenues.

Even Trinidad shut down BWIA, and Caroni, because they couldn't sustain the losses.

Yet the PPP thinks that Guysuco can be sustained in perpetuity? Now why didn't they apply that argument to bauxite, which sustains the economy of Linden, Ituni, and Kwakwani, and where there are fewer readily available alternate opportunities available.

CARICOM has a huge food bill.  The DR is eyeing that market, and whispering into their ears that they need to let them into CARICOM, and cease with the nonsense that Guyana can be the bread basket.

Why didn't Jagdeo use the transition period, and funds provided by the EU to shift Guyana towards being a powerful agro industrial economy.

Instead we export raw sugar, with minimal processing, and lose $500/tonne for doing so.  I bet we even lose forex, given that Guysuco is massively indebted because of Skeldon.

Its that backward line of thinking why Guyana still has  a WWII economy, even as Trinidad has surged ahead.  The irony that Guyana imports processed foods from Trinidad and Barbados!

FM
Danyael posted:
ethanol/methanol to create biodiesel we get a better use of sugar, help create a green economy and halve our carbon footprint.  Sugar can be used for lots of other products also.

Rather than waiting on the pipe dream of a hydro dam. In fact Venezuela has black outs now as their hydro dam is running empty!

FM
Last edited by Former Member
Kari posted:

I don't know who the writer of the article is but he ought to explain if the hard currency cost is less than the final hard currency revenue per tonne. Let's say that the hard currency cost to G$ cost is 50/50. That means Guyana spends US$400 to earn US$300 per tonne even if some fairy Godmother were to write off the local currency cost per tonne.

 

This approach also means that Guyana is incapable of building industries that can provide US$ revenues.

From what the writer said, most of the input cost is Guyana dollars, not 50/50.  This may be why mechanization was not pushed as it may bring about efficiencies but increase USD input costs!

FM
caribny posted:
Danyael posted:
ethanol/methanol to create biodiesel we get a better use of sugar, help create a green economy and halve our carbon footprint.  Sugar can be used for lots of other products also.

Rather than waiting on the pipe dream of a hydro dam. In fact Venezuela has black outs now as their hydro dam is running empty!

You too funny!!  Oil ain't coming anytime soon!!

FM
caribny posted:
Kari posted:

I don't know who the writer of the article is but he ought to explain if the hard currency cost is less than the final hard currency revenue per tonne. Let's say that the hard currency cost to G$ cost is 50/50. That means Guyana spends US$400 to earn US$300 per tonne even if some fairy Godmother were to write off the local currency cost per tonne.

 

This approach also means that Guyana is incapable of building industries that can provide US$ revenues.

Even Trinidad shut down BWIA, and Caroni, because they couldn't sustain the losses.

Yet the PPP thinks that Guysuco can be sustained in perpetuity? Now why didn't they apply that argument to bauxite, which sustains the economy of Linden, Ituni, and Kwakwani, and where there are fewer readily available alternate opportunities available.

CARICOM has a huge food bill.  The DR is eyeing that market, and whispering into their ears that they need to let them into CARICOM, and cease with the nonsense that Guyana can be the bread basket.

Why didn't Jagdeo use the transition period, and funds provided by the EU to shift Guyana towards being a powerful agro industrial economy.

Instead we export raw sugar, with minimal processing, and lose $500/tonne for doing so.  I bet we even lose forex, given that Guysuco is massively indebted because of Skeldon.

Its that backward line of thinking why Guyana still has  a WWII economy, even as Trinidad has surged ahead.  The irony that Guyana imports processed foods from Trinidad and Barbados!

Trini has oil.  It's a smaller more concentrated nation.  You talk like an empty-headed person!!

BWIA is a different story, almost all cost are forex consuming which much of the revenues were local currency.  The airline, like GAC, was not a net forex earner.

FM
ba$eman posted:
caribny posted:
Danyael posted:
ethanol/methanol to create biodiesel we get a better use of sugar, help create a green economy and halve our carbon footprint.  Sugar can be used for lots of other products also.

Rather than waiting on the pipe dream of a hydro dam. In fact Venezuela has black outs now as their hydro dam is running empty!

You too funny!!  Oil ain't coming anytime soon!!

Oil coming when the PPP back in power.  Just like how the price of Gold surged when PPP was in power.  God bless the PPP!!!

Bibi Haniffa
Bibi Haniffa posted:
ba$eman posted:
caribny posted:
Danyael posted:
ethanol/methanol to create biodiesel we get a better use of sugar, help create a green economy and halve our carbon footprint.  Sugar can be used for lots of other products also.

Rather than waiting on the pipe dream of a hydro dam. In fact Venezuela has black outs now as their hydro dam is running empty!

You too funny!!  Oil ain't coming anytime soon!!

Oil coming when the PPP back in power.  Just like how the price of Gold surged when PPP was in power.  God bless the PPP!!!

Those old communists and god are not friends. If the PPP have a patron saint it is  Lucifer. They are just as good conniving deceivers. They despoil and rape Guyana just as Lucifer the viper in did to Eden.

FM
Danyael posted:
Bibi Haniffa posted:
ba$eman posted:
caribny posted:
Danyael posted:
ethanol/methanol to create biodiesel we get a better use of sugar, help create a green economy and halve our carbon footprint.  Sugar can be used for lots of other products also.

Rather than waiting on the pipe dream of a hydro dam. In fact Venezuela has black outs now as their hydro dam is running empty!

You too funny!!  Oil ain't coming anytime soon!!

Oil coming when the PPP back in power.  Just like how the price of Gold surged when PPP was in power.  God bless the PPP!!!

Those old communists and god are not friends. If the PPP have a patron saint it is  Lucifer. They are just as good conniving deceivers. They despoil and rape Guyana just as Lucifer the viper in did to Eden.

They are some good money making communists though.  Your PNC friends have a treasury full of gold to piss away that the PPP worked for!!!!!

Bibi Haniffa
Last edited by Bibi Haniffa
Bibi Haniffa posted:
Danyael posted:
Bibi Haniffa posted:
ba$eman posted:
caribny posted:
Danyael posted:
ethanol/methanol to create biodiesel we get a better use of sugar, help create a green economy and halve our carbon footprint.  Sugar can be used for lots of other products also.

Rather than waiting on the pipe dream of a hydro dam. In fact Venezuela has black outs now as their hydro dam is running empty!

You too funny!!  Oil ain't coming anytime soon!!

Oil coming when the PPP back in power.  Just like how the price of Gold surged when PPP was in power.  God bless the PPP!!!

Those old communists and god are not friends. If the PPP have a patron saint it is  Lucifer. They are just as good conniving deceivers. They despoil and rape Guyana just as Lucifer the viper in did to Eden.

They are some good money making communists though.  Your PNC friends have a treasury full of gold to piss away that the PPP worked for!!!!!

And to top it off, the AFC/PNC idiots have not even built a toilet since taking office.

These guys who support this racist, corrupt and useless AFC/PNC should be ashamed of themselves.

FM
Bibi Haniffa posted:
Danyael posted:
Bibi Haniffa posted:
ba$eman posted:
caribny posted:
Danyael posted:
ethanol/methanol to create biodiesel we get a better use of sugar, help create a green economy and halve our carbon footprint.  Sugar can be used for lots of other products also.

Rather than waiting on the pipe dream of a hydro dam. In fact Venezuela has black outs now as their hydro dam is running empty!

You too funny!!  Oil ain't coming anytime soon!!

Oil coming when the PPP back in power.  Just like how the price of Gold surged when PPP was in power.  God bless the PPP!!!

Those old communists and god are not friends. If the PPP have a patron saint it is  Lucifer. They are just as good conniving deceivers. They despoil and rape Guyana just as Lucifer the viper in did to Eden.

They are some good money making communists though.  Your PNC friends have a treasury full of gold to piss away that the PPP worked for!!!!!

Talking pure crap as usual. The PPP drained the coffers clean. The PPP left no industry solvent and a whole heap of graft schemes to untangle.

FM
yuji22 posted:

And to top it off, the AFC/PNC idiots have not even built a toilet since taking office.

These guys who support this racist, corrupt and useless AFC/PNC should be ashamed of themselves.

You have quite a shitty outlook on life.

Give me one Govt that built a toilet you IDIOT.

 

cain
ba$eman posted:
.

Trini has oil.  It's a smaller more concentrated nation.  You talk like an empty-headed person!!

BWIA is a different story, almost all cost are forex consuming which much of the revenues were local currency.  The airline, like GAC, was not a net forex earner.

Bwee generated most of its business from West Indians living in North America and the UK.   It sourced a high % of its jet fuel out of Trinidad, I think even ferrying some of what it needed from that island to Guyana, Antigua and other places where it had to load on fuel.

In fact less than 20% of its revenues were generated in TT$, while over 60% was in US$, Cdn$, or the British pound.  About 50% of its expenses were in TT$.  Forgot that T&T produces jet fuel!

But continue to Guyanese should continue to consume Bajan food, which is 100% manufactured from food sourced from OUTSIDE of Caricom!

I can see lots of Caricom food in Guyana supermarkets.  Aside from rice I see NONE in the rest of Caricom.  Now if I were Guyana I would be talking to all of those T&T, Jamaican, and Bajan agri industrial enterprises and having them source out of Guyana.

But no you want sugar, even though the world no longer wants sugar from Guyana!

FM
Last edited by Former Member
ba$eman posted:
caribny posted:
Danyael posted:
ethanol/methanol to create biodiesel we get a better use of sugar, help create a green economy and halve our carbon footprint.  Sugar can be used for lots of other products also.

Rather than waiting on the pipe dream of a hydro dam. In fact Venezuela has black outs now as their hydro dam is running empty!

You too funny!!  Oil ain't coming anytime soon!!

Was any one talking about oil?

FM
caribny posted:
ba$eman posted:
caribny posted:
Danyael posted:
ethanol/methanol to create biodiesel we get a better use of sugar, help create a green economy and halve our carbon footprint.  Sugar can be used for lots of other products also.

Rather than waiting on the pipe dream of a hydro dam. In fact Venezuela has black outs now as their hydro dam is running empty!

You too funny!!  Oil ain't coming anytime soon!!

Was any one talking about oil?

What is your criticism of a hydro dam in referring to Venezuela!  The point, Guyana needs cheap reliable power to move the economy forward and build new layers off the basic commodity economy. Hydro is the way forward as we will not see cheap oil (the alternate) in Guyana for a very longtime!

FM
caribny posted:
ba$eman posted:
.

Trini has oil.  It's a smaller more concentrated nation.  You talk like an empty-headed person!!

BWIA is a different story, almost all cost are forex consuming which much of the revenues were local currency.  The airline, like GAC, was not a net forex earner.

Bwee generated most of its business from West Indians living in North America and the UK.   It sourced a high % of its jet fuel out of Trinidad, I think even ferrying some of what it needed from that island to Guyana, Antigua and other places where it had to load on fuel.

In fact less than 20% of its revenues were generated in TT$, while over 60% was in US$, Cdn$, or the British pound.  About 50% of its expenses were in TT$.  Forgot that T&T produces jet fuel!

But continue to Guyanese should continue to consume Bajan food, which is 100% manufactured from food sourced from OUTSIDE of Caricom!

I can see lots of Caricom food in Guyana supermarkets.  Aside from rice I see NONE in the rest of Caricom.  Now if I were Guyana I would be talking to all of those T&T, Jamaican, and Bajan agri industrial enterprises and having them source out of Guyana.

But no you want sugar, even though the world no longer wants sugar from Guyana!

The point is Guyana has very limited options and sugar still plays a role as a foreign currency earner!  If you have an alternate to earn forex, please go tell Granger/Harmon!

FM

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