yuji and Gilbakka are sitting under a mango tree. Yuji is eating rice and sijan curry from a bowl. Gilbakka is eating fried fish and bread. Yuji starts a conversation.

yuji: Rice farmers will start the spring uprising in Guyana.

Gilbakka: What for?

Yuji: Pressure on the PNC by rice farmers to deliver. PNC in hiding after failing to deliver on yet another broken election promise.

Gilbakka: Look bhai. Let's reason this thing out. I think a big part of the rice industry crisis has to do with overproduction.

Yuji: Another lie from Ko Ko Beah PNC.

Gilbakka: No. Lemme explain. In a free market economy, productivity must be related to effective demand. In other words, you must set targets according to the demand for rice. You agree?

Yuji: I am not a communist. I am for free market.

Gilbakka: Good. The PPP and the GRDB used to set high production targets without matching orders from overseas customers. Unrealistic.

Yuji: The truth is that the PNC lied and are a bunch of dirty liars.

Gilbakka: No bhai. Yuh know Badrie Persaud? He was the GRDB Chairman last year. Hear what he said in the GRDB 2014 Annual Report: “With rapid increase in production it has become more demanding to find markets for the large volume of rice being produced year after year.” In other words, the PPP regime and the GRDB should have set realistic targets.

Yuji: Gil is a PNC spin doctor.

Gilbakka: yuji, look at the numbers. In 2014, rice farmers produced 134,000 tonnes more than was exported. The year before, farmers produced 140,567 tonnes more rice than was marketed abroad.

Yuji: What's your point? The extra rice is sold in the local market.

Gilbakka: True bhai, but in the local market output must correspond to effective demand. Lemme show you some more numbers. In 2012 the Guyana population was 747,884 and the rice available for the local market was 130,000 tonnes. But in 1980, Guyana had more people, 776,927 and the rice available for the local market was only 98,000 tonnes. How can less people eat so much more rice? That is oversupply and it means less price for the farmers.

Yuji: While the PNC was in opposition it was fair to blame the government. Under a PNC government it is unfair to blame the government. A massive uprising will bring down the PNC.

Gilbakka: Bhai, in a free market economy, supply and demand determine price. The PPP regime oversupplied the local and foreign markets after encouraging farmers to produce more. Freedom House must not blame the coalition government.

Yuji: These chaps cannot even run a cake shop and they are attempting to run a country. The PNC is clueless.

Gilbakka: Alright bhaiya, if you say so. Here's a piece of fried fish.

Yuji: No thanks. Yuji is a Haryana brahmin vegetarian.

[END]

BTW, PNC is in for a Massive Guyanese uprising.

Yuji: Gilbakka, yuh shud be eating Gilbakka and rice instead of fried Gilbakka and bread to support the rice farmers.

Gilbakka: True bhai, but in the local market output must correspond to effective demand. Lemme show you some more numbers. In 2012 the Guyana population was 747,884 and the rice available for the local market was 130,000 tonnes. But in 1980, Guyana had more people, 776,927 and the rice available for the local market was only 98,000 tonnes. How can less people eat so much more rice? That is oversupply and it means less price for the farmers.

I especially like this one Gilly. Whah kinda economics is this bai? The 98k tonnes in 1980 resulted in shortages. People used to starve back then.

Alright, kaz, lemme amend it. In 2002 the population was 750,629 which is 2,745 more than the 2012 population. But whereas only 105,000 tonnes were available in the local market in 2002, more rice [130,000 tonnes] was available in 2012 for 2,745 less people. Still oversupply.

BTW, PNC is in for a Massive Guyanese uprising.

I don't know 2002 or 2012 as well as I do 1980. Nonetheless one cannot construe from the figures above that there was sufficient supply in 2002 thereby making the 2012 supply a surplus.

Historically, Total Rice Output minus Exported Quantity equals Local Consumption. It looks foolish but that has been the equation in use. In this link below, you will see local consumption numbers for 54 running years. And you will see sharp variances between some successive years. As Guyana never had to import rice to satisfy local demand during the period 1960-2014, one can reasonably conclude that the lowest numbers satisfied the local market. Here's the link:

http://www.indexmundi.com/agri...domestic-consumption

Now, regarding 1980/Burnham time when total rice output was low, local consumers were not only boiling rice but using additional rice to make rice-flour roti and pulouri. Still, there was rice left over for some Guyanese to smuggle to Surinam to barter for wheat flour. In other words, there was never a crisis in the local rice market. We have to bear in mind that only a percentage of Guyana's population eat rice as a staple.