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Obama sure States = 217

 

Romney’s sure States = 191

 

Fight for the remaining 130


In an average of the major polls -


Romney

Florida          29   

No Carolina       15

Total             44


Obama

Colorado                    9

Iowa                    6

Nevada          6

New Hampshire          4

Ohio          18

Virginia          13

Wisconsin          10

Pennsylvania          20

Total             86


Current projection has Obama at 303 and Romney at 235.


It is realistic that New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia could go in Romney's column. That would give him 26 more so he ends up at 261. Obama is thus reduced by 26 and the math work out to him getting 277.


It's important to remember that the national polling does not get you elected President but the Electoral College. The national polling and Electoral College track fairly evenly, but in a close race the battleground states 1 vote margin (say New Hampshire)might equal 10,000 vote margin in another (Florida)


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That Romney sure projection of 206 (from my 191) may have some combination of the Romney-leaning battleground States of Florida and No. Carolina or the ones that I said could go his way (New Hampshire, Colorado, and Virginia). That doesn't change the math, so he still end up 9 votes short.

 

Now if you give him one or two of the Obama-leaning States (Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) then Romney wins. Ohio and Pennsylvania are at a stage where you can put them in the sure-bet Obama column. It's tough to see Romney pulling Wisconsin and Nevada out of a hat. Iowa is like an Obama home State. So take your pick to see if Romney gets over the 270 hump.

Kari
Originally Posted by yuji22:

Al will disagree and has been quiet lately. Wonder why ?

CNN is projecting 206 sure for Romney. Add that to your senario and Romney wins. 

 

This will be a close race. Projecting 303 for Obama is nonsense. I can see Obama winning but the 303 number is flawed.

I think he playin as though something happen like an alien abduction or some such cuckoo story. He ketch hint of how Obama's gonna lay a trashing on Romneyski so he staying away from now. You deh pon yo own deh Yuji.

cain
Originally Posted by yuji22:

@ Cain

 

I could really care less about the outcome. The American people will make the right choice. It is all entertainment for me since I am way up north. I see you are up north too so it is entertainment for us.

Alyuh bettah don't mess 'roun up deh, you see we need datt oil, and you see wha happen to Iraq!  Tek warnin'.  If Obama gone, alyuh bettah sit tite an staan easy.

FM

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