Obama sure States = 217
Romneyβs sure States = 191
Fight for the remaining 130
In an average of the major polls -
Romney
Florida 29
No Carolina 15
Total 44
Obama
Colorado 9
Iowa 6
Nevada 6
New Hampshire 4
Ohio 18
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10
Pennsylvania 20
Total 86
Current projection has Obama at 303 and Romney at 235.
It is realistic that New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia could go in Romney's column. That would give him 26 more so he ends up at 261. Obama is thus reduced by 26 and the math work out to him getting 277.
It's important to remember that the national polling does not get you elected President but the Electoral College. The national polling and Electoral College track fairly evenly, but in a close race the battleground states 1 vote margin (say New Hampshire)might equal 10,000 vote margin in another (Florida)