The State of the Parties Broken down By Race:

PPP 32 (30 Indian, and 2 Amerindian)

PNC 26 (26 Black)

AFC 7  (5 Indian and 1 Black and 1 Amerindian)

Ignore am nuh?

Check dis out, tell mi how PPP gonna win back votes and where exactly dem winnin dem votes dis fram.....Keep in mind Rohee BT is not a region.

rass me though guyana was a land with 7 races what happen dougla na count 

It isn't. It's the land of three races as far as elections are concerned.

well there goes my dougla sister 

PPP gonna get a good spankin in 2015....licks like peas.....

Very simple Karl Rove. They're gonna target 100% of those AFC Indian and Amerindian voters (who collectively make up 6 AFC seats). That's their only path back to a majority. They only have to win 1 seat back. That's about 5,200 votes.

what about all the indian migration and with the ppp track record of corruption i say they will lose 5more seats  

The Indian migration is significantly offset by Black migration as well. We also tend to have higher birth rates. And I think we have become "habitual" voters to a much greater degree than Blacks.

As for corruption, the 2011 election narrative was about that. The 2015 narrative will be simple "vote against the PNC." The PNC's street "protest" record is a lot more alarming for the typical Indian voter than corruption.

This election is lost if the PPP makes it a referendum on the PNC. Because no Indian likes the PNC. Many Indians may like Granger personally but they will be stuck at the PNC part.

the "PNC" is what David Granger or any PNC leader) makes it

there is no governing "ideology" that disposes its members to violate Indo-Guyanese

if you know of such, i suggest you put up or shut your fearmongering, race-baiting  trap!

but, if you wish to demonize Guyana Black people, do so without the "PNC" fig leaf. . . do it openly as the PPP will when push comes to shove

But Oh Great Shitstain here is the problem with your explanation in a vacuum.

That is assuming that no other net new voters will vote for the coalition and from all indications on the ground people are excited about this coalition in regions, 4, 1, 7,8,9,10.

As the election date gets closer if people are motivated to say listen I am gonna go out and vote for the coalition because I like dis configuration which is highly likely whappen wid your 5200 votes?

The other thing to consider here is the PPP have lost votes the past 2 elections for sure maybe more. Why would any sane person think they would gain votes in this election?

What have they done that is so fantastic that warrants this great reversal in favor of de PPP.

Rab Mukraj posting here as HM Redux turn electoral expert these Days.  Is not you fuss call him out Mr. TK?

Dude he may be a garrulous bloke but his heart is in the right place and he is very intelligent and a decent man.

1.  Indian migration rates are higher than African/mixed migration rates as the extended family structure is stronger so its easier to migrate as there is more family support.

2.Indian birth rates are around the same as African, and have been for at least 20 years.

3.Amerindians have much higher birth rates than either Indians or Africans, and so are younger on average than either.

4.  There appears to be a sharp increase in miscegenation among Africans, Amerindians and Africans. The most mixed regions are in the riverain, the Pomeroon, and Bartica, which suggests that African Amerindian combinations are quite popular.  The fact that the mixed population appears to be 60% higher than it was in 1991 means that the mixed population is exceedingly young, many not of voting age, and others in that youthful cohort where voter turn out and registration rates are low.

5.  Voter turnout in the interior is much lower than on the coast, most likely because of poor transportation and an ambivalence among Amerindians concerning national governance, which they meet see as irrelevant to their lives.

6.  Voter turn out is also higher in coastal rural areas than in the urban areas.  This is most likely because registration rates among PNC supporters declined as the PNCs community outreach collapsed under Corbin. In addition many poorer blacks lost interest in voting because of the notion that race based voting automatically meant that the PNC would lose, so began to see voting as a waste of time.

So the Indian population is larger within the voting population, than among the national population, though not as high as 54%.  Shaitaan negates the fact that a mixed population does exist, and so exaggerates the Indian.

I estimate the voting population to be Indian 48%, African 32%, Amerindian 6%, other 1%, with the rest being mixed.  Mixed voters tend to almost mirror the African vote, which is why the PNC wins 40%, even though the African vote is only 30%.

Do you have polling to suggest this, or is this the usual hyperbole which confuses the AFC before every election.  We also heard how excited Guyanese were not to vote race, and how they supported the AFC.  We heard the AFC scream that this meant that the PNC would have been reduced to being a smaller party than the AFC.  This a mere 3 years ago.

The AFC needs to stop wishing on a star. Obviously most Guyanese are a good deal less excited about the AFC than the AFC is about itself.

You don't know what people really think of the coalition.  Has the AFC done real polling outside of the intellectual class?  Do the majority of Amerindians who have never voted in national elections, now plan to vote?  What of the alienated blacks in South G/towns ghettoes, who gave up on electoral politics after the 2001 election.  Ditto in Linden?

It does appear as if you have given up on the 10k PPP Nagamootoo voters as I note that you haven't included Regions 5 and 6.  Good, because even they are probably still attempting to get over the shock, and haven't decided what they will do.

I suggest that the APNU/AFC get over themselves, get out of the cushy offices and go into the tenement yards of G/town, to the rice fields of West Demerara, to the backdams of East Coast Demerara, and into the canefields of Berbice, and find out what people really think, and what will motivate them to vote.  Because these are where the majority of the votes are.  Not among the prolific letter writers to KN and SN.

I agree with points 1 to 6.

I think you misunderstood my treatment of the mixed population. I put them under the category of "Black" as that seems to define their voting behavior and well as a generic statement of self-identification. It was not meant in anyway to negate them in any way. I wouldn't begin to attempt the difficult task of separating Mixed from Black votes but 30% Black and 12% Mixed sounds reasonable. A 20% Mixed voting electorate is not borne out by recent results. Such a number would require a higher PNC electoral performance.

I cannot agree that the Indian voting population is 48%, that would mean that the AFC's 5 Indian seats and the PPP's 30 Indian seats in 2011 should total 48%. It doesn't. It totals 54%. It may perhaps seem overly simplistic at first glance but very much in line with the 2001, 2006, and 2011 results.

I confess to no particular insight into the exact ethnic/racial breakdown of the total (wildly inaccurate) voter list. I am just going by past voting patterns and reasonable geographic attributions in line with our history.

The PPP didn't do anything different.  Its the mere prospect of a "black man government" when many rural Indians thought that this would never happen again.  The PPP will definitely press this home with videos of Indians getting beaten after the 1997 and 2001 elections.

And yet people like you think that APNU/AFC can merely wait in anticipation of victory, because "PPP baaad".   The APNU/AFC better get out in the trenches (literally) and drag every vote that they can find, and get off their arrogant horses.

There is a principle that says that people only hang out with like minded people, so are isolated from what other people think, so they exaggerate the importance of their views.  They are then shocked when they discover that many people do not think as they do.

Do not assume about what most people think.  

The African (not mixed identified) population will also be more represented in the voting population than in the national population.  While turnout is lower than it is among the Indian, it isn't hugely lower, and in the last election that gap was sharply reduced when one considers the lower Indian turn out.  While Amerindian vote is certainly lower than its 10% of the national population represented, voter turn out in thoroughly Amerindian areas like Regions 1 and 9 suggest that it is about 40% lower than on the coast.  This factors in a younger age profile and also lower voter turn out.

These AFC mad people do not fully appreciate the magnitude of what they've done. They have done the unthinkable to the Indian electorate (especially the part that voted for them in 2011).

While the Bright Bai class will pontificate and will eventually come around. The ordinary Indian needs heavy heavy convincing.

A good AFC advisor should have said to the AFC Executive Committee "Look chaps, let us assume that we have lost all 5 of our Indian seats to "undecided/Leans PPP/Leans Stay Home" and fight like crazy to win them back. There should be no assumption that the average Indian cares about "making history" and how the PNC and AFC "sacrificed" and all this self-congratulatory nonsense.

This is no understatement but the average Indian views the PNC as an existential threat not another parliamentary party.

I agree.

I want to emphasize the highlighted portion for the AFC Government-in-Waiting on GNI that the black turnout rate cannot be significantly lower than the Indian turnout rate. I'm not convinced that this is a turnout issue. I think the black depressed turnout issue is hugely exaggerated and maybe just maybe worth 1 or 2 seats (5,200 to 10,400 votes). Maybe.

I think the turnout in Guyana is still incredibly high as a whole and not likely to climb much higher or be lowered significantly either.

342,126 people voted in a population of 747,884. That is 46% of our population.

Saint Kitts had a 54% voter turnout to general population in 2010.

We're within the high turnout range in Guyana for voter participation.

Don't be fooled by the AFC vulgarian PPP refugees that we see here.  They remain PPP people engaged in a civil war with the Jagdeo faction and so differ not in the slightest in their views towards Afro Guyanese than do more die hard PPP supporters.

Nagamootoo knows fully well that he got support as a PPP Jaganite who ha parted ways with the Jagdeoite controlled PPP.  He knows full well that now that he has abandoned the PPP totally and gone over to the enemy many who viewed him as one of the few PPP men with integrity are now thoroughly confused. 

The parallel is when the grass roots followed Hammie Green out of the PNC, supporting the GGG.  When Green played footsie with the PPP, out of spite in his war with Hoyte, he was abandoned and the GGG collapsed.

For the AFC to assume that they control those 10k voters, and so have the election in the bag are being quite foolish.  Nagamootoo, who lives in Guyana, knows better than this, based on statements warning Indians to not be used by the PPP as it behaves as if they own the Indian vote.  He has also emphasized the role that he will play in the coalition, to reduce their fears about the PNC.

To his credit Granger has also ventured into PPP strongholds and surprisingly was able to engage people in serious conversation. Indeed the rice farmers in Region 3 even solicited his help when he spoke to them concerning the problems that they face.

Granger also made peace with the Solomon/Kissoon faction as he knows that he will have to mobilize his base.

So theoretically APNU and the AFC acknowledge their challenges.  The question will be whether they will have the energy, the discipline, and the resources to mount the aggressive campaign that they would need to.

Its only the GNI AFC clowns, some with their Jaganite attitudes, who think that they have it in the bag.

What's this PNC yall talkin about?

Aloo vs. potato issue bai. PNC or APNU or whatever, no one is under any illusion of the fact that the PNC is the same party different acronym.

  SKN has a population of 50k, and 28k voted in 2010, based on SKNvibes. A significant % of their population are either immigrants (Guyanese and Dominican Rep, Jamaicans, and Dominicans) maybe as high as 10% of the population.  There are also thousands of US citizens, Nigerians and Indians connected to their off shore universities, so I don't know how one can ascertain what the "native" population is, and therefore what the voter turnout was.

If people in SKN can dump an elected dictator then so can Guyanese.  Based on youtube videos that I have been watching, the opposition coalition worked hard. 

Let us hope our opposition coalition do the same.  Islanders on the whole are much more aggressive in demanding their rights than are Guyanese, which is why they see us as idiots for allowing our governments (Burnham and Jagdeo) do be as abusive as they have been.

you actually think that picture is PC...it is actually sick and something someone vulgar or sick would post..get help.

Admin needs to remove this pix pronto!

Not unexpected given that the poster is noted in being vulgar.  I don't know why he does this at a time when many are trying to convince themselves that Nagamootoo faction of the coalition are a better option than the PPP.

those who see vulgarity in the picture (and continue to re-post in protest??) need to check themselves