The next 4 years starts with US- China relationship.
- The Chinese leadership is changing from one whose leaning has been technocratic and economic to one where political and cultural matters will reappear.
- The Chinese economy is slowing down and its impact is on unemployment; credit defaults and a whole lot of unoccupied office towers. The high-speed rail project is an unmitigated economic disaster. So much for central economic planning and oligopoly.
- The US has strengthened its political, economic and military relationship with the Pacific rim countries. China is feeling isolated in its own backyard.
- Obama has had a brilliant Asia policy.
The Middle East dynamics is changing, and Obama helped ignite it with his 2009 Cairo speech.
Democratic reforms are taking hold in Egypt, Iraq, Libya and slowly the Saudis are moving many small ways to a liberal society. They have a long ways to go.
Turkey and Israel are counters to Iran and the US will be the back stop.
The US is poised for an economic take-off. Its banking system has been ster4enghtened; its consumers have rebalanced their debt/savings ratio to the point where the iconic “American consumer” can again lead global recovery; the housing market – a bell-weather for consumer spending – is strengthening. The fiscal situation is manageable. The US debt obligation as a ratio of GDP is not alarming – though its trajectory is worrisome. I believe that, notwithstanding their bluster and rhetoric, a chastened legislative Republican party will keep the tax breaks for under-$250,000 income levels and raise taxes on incomes above that. Entitlement spending will be managed and the full features of the health care reform Act will start to ease the medical horror we’ve been heading to. The oil from shale sands and gas discoveries will see dependence on foreign oil imports drop significantly. America has increased its exports under Obama, and while the global economy contracts America’s share in trade has improved because of the high-tech nature of it and its abundance of food exports.
America is a more liberal society – look at the number of openly gay Congress and Senate candidates elected, and the State ballots on marijuana and same-sex marriages. Its population is also changing, and you will see major immigration reform, including getting the next wave of Indian and Chinese scientists, especially the latter, seek to utilize their skills in a more meaningful way.