The presidential race in Pennsylvania has gotten a lot closer as Trump gains on Biden, poll says
The presidential race in Pennsylvania is now almost neck-and-neck after both parties’ national conventions, according to a new poll, with President Donald Trump gaining ground on Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
Biden leads Trump by four percentage points among registered Pennsylvania voters, 49% to 45%, a Monmouth University Polling Institute survey released Wednesday found. That’s down from a 13 percentage point advantage Biden held in Monmouth’s last Pennsylvania poll, in early July.
Among likely voters, the race is even closer.
Biden leads by one percentage point in a low voter turnout scenario, and by three in a high turnout model, Monmouth found. In July, Monmouth found Biden leading by seven in a low turnout scenario, and 10 if voter turnout were high.
It’s the first public survey of the state released after both parties pressed their cases to voters in nationally televised conventions in late August. And it comes as both parties have blanketed Pennsylvania this week: Biden delivered a major speech Monday in Pittsburgh, Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, also campaigned in Bucks County that day, Vice President Mike Pence spoke Tuesday in Northeast Pennsylvania, and the president is expected Thursday in Southwest Pennsylvania.
Trump has made significant gains among men, voters under the age of 50, and a sliver of voters who seem open to his warnings that Democrats would bring ruin to the suburbs. Trump has also eaten into Biden’s lead among college-educated white voters.
“This is really a game of inches,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “The Trump campaign is looking to peel off a little bit of Biden support here and a little bit there. It may be working, despite the fact that Pennsylvania voters personally like the Democrat more, although this gap has narrowed.”
Pennsylvania was decided by less than one percentage point in 2016, so small shifts in almost any region or demographic could make the difference this time.
