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FM
Former Member

Regions 1, 7, 8, and 9 are very very low turnout regions where the electoral quota for a geographic seat in Parliament falls below the National Top Up quota of around 5,200 votes. In the 2011 Election in Region 1, where the electoral quota was 2,600, the surplus votes were PPP 872 and APNU 887 allowing APNU to pick up a Geographic parliamentary seat with a 15 vote difference that even in total of 887 fell well below the regional quota of 2,600. This did not negatively affect the PPP because the distribution of national top up seats took this into account as both parties won more national top up seats than regional seats.

 

However, it is possible for a small party to cheat the system in a way by winning in small constituencies while at the same time obtaining a less than proportional amount of the national vote. The so-called overhang seats which are a feature of the Largest Remainder Hare Quota system we use. In the Guyanese system, the small party would keep it's non-proportional overhang and the size of the Assembly may be increased. So in theory it is perfectly possible for a 33 PPP-33 Coalition-1 TUF result to occur with the PPP walking away with both the Presidency and a 1 seat majority thanks to TUF.

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Originally Posted by TK:

Her finances will no doubt come from Freedom House.

 

I cannot imagine this scenario hasn't crossed the PPP's mind. They need a small party for this kind of work though. A small party in one of our under-populated regions.

 

It takes a lot of time, effort, and energy to qualify for elections by putting together a List with hundreds of signatures collected in at least 6 regions of Guyana. I don't know why they would expend all that behind Marissa Nadir if not for a purpose.

FM

In addition:

 

The PPP (or any party) is not required to contest all Geographic seats. If they were really smart they could create overhang seats without rigging by simply allowing TUF to contest 1 or more of the low turnout regions of Guyana while the PPP legally withdraws from those regional MP seat contests so as to maximize the PPP vote.

FM

The UF, even when they are on the ropes, have their loyal supporters.  That is why the AFC should have tried two strategies after the last election.

 

1. Incorporate the UF into the AFC using Mrs. Lowe to head that wing.

 

2.  If that approach did not work for the AFC then they should have created a new party (The Real United Force party) headed by Mrs. Lowe.  That would have taken about a quarter of the UF support.

FM
Last edited by Former Member

Let us recall how The United Force performed in past elections.

1997 --- 5,937 votes

2001 --- 2,904 votes

2006 --- 2,694 votes

2011 --- 885 votes

As you can see, The United Force has been losing unremitting support last 4 elections, dropping in popularity by 85 percent since 1997.

Whoever set up Nadir's daughter to contest as TUF presidential candidate on May 11 is shamelessly out to embarrass the young lady. As for the masterminds of this ludicrous scheme, they are both stupid and shameless. Let's wait for the voters' verdict.

FM
Originally Posted by Gilbakka:

Let us recall how The United Force performed in past elections.

1997 --- 5,937 votes

2001 --- 2,904 votes

2006 --- 2,694 votes

2011 --- 885 votes

As you can see, The United Force has been losing unremitting support last 4 elections, dropping in popularity by 85 percent since 1997.

Whoever set up Nadir's daughter to contest as TUF presidential candidate on May 11 is shamelessly out to embarrass the young lady. As for the masterminds of this ludicrous scheme, they are both stupid and shameless. Let's wait for the voters' verdict.

 

My Dear Friend,

 

I think you may have misunderstood my post.

 

I'm saying for example the PPP can use a small party to rig a small amount of regional votes in a particular low voting region like Region 1. Or they can just pull out the PPP from one or more regional constituency elections and direct their voters to TUF so as to create an "overhang" situation where a party wins geographic seats but a lessor amount of or no national seats at all. Basically a party can grab a geographic parliamentary seat for about 900 votes while under performing in the national vote total.

 

This is a unique situation which only arises for small regional/constituency parties under the Largest Remainder Hare Quota system that allows for overhang seats.

 

The PPP should not contest all 10 geographic MP constituencies. It would make more sense to pull out of 1 or 2 of the low voter regions like Region 1 and Region 8 and let a third party capture those votes for it.

FM
Originally Posted by HM_Redux:

Gilly that would be assuming of course that the woman could be embarrassed.

 

I doubt she could be embarrassed considering her involvement at NICIL.

 

 

You have a point. Some people are immune to embarrassment. Now that you mention NICIL, it's not hard to imagine where her campaign funding will come from. NICIL is the political elite's piggy bank beholden to only a few powerful men with earned and honorary doctorates.

FM
Originally Posted by Shaitaan:
Originally Posted by Gilbakka:

Let us recall how The United Force performed in past elections.

1997 --- 5,937 votes

2001 --- 2,904 votes

2006 --- 2,694 votes

2011 --- 885 votes

As you can see, The United Force has been losing unremitting support last 4 elections, dropping in popularity by 85 percent since 1997.

Whoever set up Nadir's daughter to contest as TUF presidential candidate on May 11 is shamelessly out to embarrass the young lady. As for the masterminds of this ludicrous scheme, they are both stupid and shameless. Let's wait for the voters' verdict.

 

My Dear Friend,

 

I think you may have misunderstood my post.

 

I'm saying for example the PPP can use a small party to rig a small amount of regional votes in a particular low voting region like Region 1. Or they can just pull out the PPP from one or more regional constituency elections and direct their voters to TUF so as to create an "overhang" situation where a party wins geographic seats but a lessor amount of or no national seats at all. Basically a party can grab a geographic parliamentary seat for about 900 votes while under performing in the national vote total.

 

This is a unique situation which only arises for small regional/constituency parties under the Largest Remainder Hare Quota system that allows for overhang seats.

 

The PPP should not contest all 10 geographic MP constituencies. It would make more sense to pull out of 1 or 2 of the low voter regions like Region 1 and Region 8 and let a third party capture those votes for it.

I get your point and that may very well be the PPP plan.

My point is that this 2015 election will signal the end of The United Force not merely as a top-upper but also as a political party.

Now, having regard to your viewpoint, APNU+AFC should explain to hinterland voters the suspected PPP intent and connection to Ms Nadir's campaign.

FM
Originally Posted by Gilbakka:
Originally Posted by Shaitaan:
Originally Posted by Gilbakka:

Let us recall how The United Force performed in past elections.

1997 --- 5,937 votes

2001 --- 2,904 votes

2006 --- 2,694 votes

2011 --- 885 votes

As you can see, The United Force has been losing unremitting support last 4 elections, dropping in popularity by 85 percent since 1997.

Whoever set up Nadir's daughter to contest as TUF presidential candidate on May 11 is shamelessly out to embarrass the young lady. As for the masterminds of this ludicrous scheme, they are both stupid and shameless. Let's wait for the voters' verdict.

 

My Dear Friend,

 

I think you may have misunderstood my post.

 

I'm saying for example the PPP can use a small party to rig a small amount of regional votes in a particular low voting region like Region 1. Or they can just pull out the PPP from one or more regional constituency elections and direct their voters to TUF so as to create an "overhang" situation where a party wins geographic seats but a lessor amount of or no national seats at all. Basically a party can grab a geographic parliamentary seat for about 900 votes while under performing in the national vote total.

 

This is a unique situation which only arises for small regional/constituency parties under the Largest Remainder Hare Quota system that allows for overhang seats.

 

The PPP should not contest all 10 geographic MP constituencies. It would make more sense to pull out of 1 or 2 of the low voter regions like Region 1 and Region 8 and let a third party capture those votes for it.

I get your point and that may very well be the PPP plan.

My point is that this 2015 election will signal the end of The United Force not merely as a top-upper but also as a political party.

Now, having regard to your viewpoint, APNU+AFC should explain to hinterland voters the suspected PPP intent and connection to Ms Nadir's campaign.

 

The UF has the capacity to be the party that makes the difference by creating overhang seats. They can do so legally by having the PPP pull out in one or two regional contests and/or they can rig in favor of the UF in one or two geographic constituencies.

 

I don't think observers will be much in the hinterland. I know for a fact that the PPP has stuffed ballot boxes before and discarded Opposition votes.

FM
Originally Posted by Shaitaan:

Regions 1, 7, 8, and 9 are very very low turnout regions where the electoral quota for a geographic seat in Parliament falls below the National Top Up quota of around 5,200 votes. In the 2011 Election in Region 1, where the electoral quota was 2,600, the surplus votes were PPP 872 and APNU 887 allowing APNU to pick up a Geographic parliamentary seat with a 15 vote difference that even in total of 887 fell well below the regional quota of 2,600. This did not negatively affect the PPP because the distribution of national top up seats took this into account as both parties won more national top up seats than regional seats.

 

However, it is possible for a small party to cheat the system in a way by winning in small constituencies while at the same time obtaining a less than proportional amount of the national vote. The so-called overhang seats which are a feature of the Largest Remainder Hare Quota system we use. In the Guyanese system, the small party would keep it's non-proportional overhang and the size of the Assembly may be increased. So in theory it is perfectly possible for a 33 PPP-33 Coalition-1 TUF result to occur with the PPP walking away with both the Presidency and a 1 seat majority thanks to TUF.

SHe is a PPP soup sluper having been parasitically implanted at NICIL. This is indeed a plant to water down votes in 7, 8, 9 especially but it will not work. They will have to build  her a benab in Kato and give her one of those second hand  helicopters to shuttle between the districts. Even with that she will not get votes. Amerindians are not stupid. Region 9 will not budge and 9 has very educated elders.

FM

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