The worst case scenarios from prorogation could destroy Guyana

DEAR EDITOR,
President Ramotar did the cowardly thing and prorogued Parliament. It is yet another example of the intellectual and strategic shallowness of the PPP and its leader. This is what happens when power-drunk hijackers of a party, desperate to protect their ill-gotten gains by any means necessary, expose the very party and its supporters to a future that could be perilous to their fortunes.
The fortunes of the PPP hierarchy are secured. They have homes in Florida and bank accounts all over the world. It is the people who vote for them who will feel the pain if this prorogation decision backfires spectacularly.
Notwithstanding a weakened and fractured PNC, the PPP is afraid to contest an election because it knows it will lose votes. So, in order to avoid losing votes and getting a smaller plurality which will cause internal power squabbling that will inevitably collapse the Jagdeo-Ramotar domination, the Jagdeo-Ramotar hijackers of the PPP have committed hara-kiri to hold onto power by any means necessary, by proroguing Parliament.
Prorogation is a gift to the opposition. It ensures international condemnation and isolation of the PPP. Even the Chinese will not back this regime, knowing that when the PPP falls from power, now a foregone conclusion in the short term, the new government could reverse many of China’s projects and China would lose major opportunities with the new government.
Prorogation is also economically risky. Political uncertainty, particularly if accompanied with protest, violence and civil unrest, is detested by investors, donors and major lenders. Look for a drying-up of funds from international sources. At home, locals will tighten spending, leading to the further slowdown of an economy already screeching to a halt with a volatile gold sector facing declining prices. The anti-money laundering world body will now definitely blacklist Guyana and the economic consequences of this act on top of the battering the PPP will get, will be crushing.
In keeping with its past behaviour, the PPP will try to use this suspension of Parliament to go on a spending spree trying to bribe Guyanese taxpayers with their own money. The problem is they simply don’t have the money. The PPP was projected to get $139.77 billion in revenues in 2014, a 3% increase over 2013. According to its mid-year report, its spending increased a whopping 28.7% compared to 2013. This means that the PPP was expected to spend $149.1 billion even before it faced the no-confidence vote. That puts it in a deficit of $9.33 billion (US$46.65 million) even before it planned to bribe taxpayers with reckless spending to regain their votes.
The plan makes no sense given that the PPP is already in a deficit, spending more than it earns, particularly with gold revenues declining since July 2014. It will have to borrow internationally to fund its spending spree to try to buy back electoral support.
A government cannot spend money it does not have. As I stated above, no international agency or country in its right mind would lend a government already in deficit, broke and spending to support a dictatorial act of prorogation, not even China or Russia.
The economy always wins the political war. The economic pitfalls from prorogation will cripple Guyana, jeopardizing public sector salaries and restricting the ability of the government to meet its obligations. This will likely trigger fiscally deadly strikes.
The first group to flee a country is the most economically mobile and this happens to be predominantly PPP supporters. So, prorogation and its worst case economic outcomes will lead to mass migration by the PPP’s own supporters, and primarily the most capital-formidable among them. This pullout of capital and investment stagnation from local and foreign investors will generate serious economic consequences.
Prorogation at a time when a budget is constitutionally due in five months and the government is likely to already be in deficit spending is a terrible decision. The PPP will have to recall Parliament before the end of March 2015 to present a budget and it will inevitably face a no-confidence motion that will send it to elections in three months, which is June 30, 2015, by the latest.
The timing of this gambit by the PPP is clearly idiotic and confirms Ramotar and the PPP’s intellectual weakness, cowardice and strategic imbecility. The political losses to the PPP by that time will be heavy. It will bleed moderate support, mostly Amerindians and Mixed voters, and will have converted a smaller plurality into a distinct possibility of a political loss at the future election.
If it tries to prorogue Parliament beyond March 31, 2015 without tabling a budget, an impossibility in effect, it will still face the certainty of elections in 2016, a year when the EU will cancel all concessions and preferential pricing to the sugar industry, dealing yet another devastating blow to the PPP’s support base and to the PPP in turn. By that time, the PPP WILL lose the election.
The other worst case scenarios the PPP has not considered are the effect of loss of legitimacy in critical agencies such as the military and the potential for violent rebellion against the PPP’s actions. While the police and military have been generally professional in the 22 years of PPP rule, prorogation for obviously dictatorial ends, international pressure and the innate illegitimacy of this measure will divide these state institutions, especially if they are instructed to confront a populace in popular uprising to this autocracy.
We know where the political allegiance of the members of the armed forces lie as evidenced by their votes, which is publicly available information. It is stupid for any government to think any fallout from this prorogation decision that engulfs this country will not test those loyalties and the government is highly likely to end up on the wrong side of the loyalty test.
The PPP made Guyana into a violent, criminalized, volatile and unpredictable country. It defanged the police force. A worst case scenario is Guyana plunging into mayhem in response to the totalitarian antics of the PPP because of this very fertile environment created by the PPP.
The PPP cannot benefit from this madness. It will lose votes, not only from fleeing supporters, of which their prime Indian constituency will likely flee first, and in the greatest concentrations, but also from a deflation of support from other ethnic groups.
That the PPP has considered the worst case scenarios, and still wants to seize power fraudulently, must mean the PPP will clutch at any straw when faced with its demise.
I see a reaching out to Venezuela if it opens the PPP to the possibility of holding onto power. This band of brigands will rather see this country fractured, divided, economically ravaged and open to the ambitions of those with territorial designs in order to hold onto power. Not to mention, how devastating the impact of prorogation could be on their own supporters if the worst case scenarios are to unfold.
The opposition should thank the Ramotar-Jagdeo cabal for the gift.
M. Maxwell