Granger’s second term: Citing Machiavelli
Since Machiavelli wrote that it may be easier for a prince to acquire power than to maintain it, several global figures have referred to Machiavelli’s reflection. I know Lenin once did.
If Granger is sworn in for a second term without the transparent tabulation and verification of Region Four’s statements of poll (SOPs), I am consciously using the term, “impossible” to describe what would be his inability to maintain power.
What impassible and impossible pathways lie ahead? First, the Americans have boxed themselves in. They have defined a policy that as a superpower, they cannot retract easily. The Americans’ adumbration is if there isn’t transparent verification of those SOPs, they will regard the Granger presidency as unconstitutional.
If the Americans do not react against such a government, its officials know it will lose leverage with other small states that behave the way GECOM and its political backers did.
No superpower will want to take that chance. It cannot. Autocratic leaders that the Americans denounce as dictators will ignore them.
Secondly, the EU and Canada will follow the US and apply sanctions. I am contending that the Americans will use sanctions. If that happens, it will virtually bring the process of governance to a halt.
Guyana is a quintessential western hemisphere country whose economy is virtually inseparable from the west. Guyana’s trade and its financial nerve centre are located in the West.
Thirdly, this is not the era of Burnham in CARICOM where CARICOM did not know what took place with elections in Guyana, had to listen to Burnham and was unsure of what to do and thus did nothing.
It is unfortunate for GECOM and those who may be pulling the strings of GECOM that the Region Four verification controversy took place right in front of the eyes of one of Barbados’s longest serving Prime Minister, Owner Arthur, and former Jamaican Prime Minister, Bruce Golding.
CARICOM then will not have the space to manoeuvre. It will not allow the Guyana situation to just pass into nothingness.
Fourthly, the OAS is in a far more uncomfortable position than CARICOM. Given what happened in Venezuela and the OAS’s sanctions, given what is now taking place in Guyana, and given the pellucid announcement that the final GECOM count was not a true reflection, the OAS will act against the Granger presidency.
On Saturday, the OAS resent former Jamaican Prime Minister to Guyana, Bruce Golding; he is here at the moment. Also yesterday, the OAS dispatched the head of its governance department to Guyana.
Fifthly, visa cancellations and denials may be the first set of sanctions to come. Gerry Gouveia shared a panel with me on Kaieteur Radio Saturday night and he intoned that the visa sanctions also will take into its net family members and relatives of the leaders. Visa restrictions may bite hard. Canada and the EU may follow the US.
There is just about a combined million Guyanese in North America, UK and in Caricom areas. Guyana is figuratively an extension of the US and Canada. Which Guyanese does not have family member and relatives that they closely interact with in Canada and the US?
A large number of Government officials in modern Guyana go to Canada and the US more than once a year for family reunion.
Can the Granger government implode over visa restrictions? Will high-ranking members of the government remain faithful if they cannot go to the US and Canada to see ailing parents and loving children?
Sixthly, the domestic pressure scene. Will the business community hang up their gloves? I refer to that radio programme with Gouveia. From his two-hour delivery, it doesn’t look like it will be business as usual.
Finally, the opposition PPP! What will it do if Granger is sworn in? This is where I fear we are heading in the direction of a volcano. I was an advisor working closely with the Foreign Minister and Prime Minister of Grenada when the revolution imploded.
My job was not public. I was never in the public eyes. My presence was restricted only to select meeting with the minister and prime minister when I presented my research. I learnt valuable lessons from the collapse of that government.
When one group swore to their followers that they will fight their opponents and they will not let them down, they leave no room for the exit. They leave no space to back down.
The PPP leadership must have told itself that it won and the victory was denied. They should have asked themselves, “What if the party never won?”
Therefore, to erase that possibility, they have to fight for survival. I am afraid that is what we can logically expect.
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect