This is what you call hard guava season

President David Granger and Prime Minister Moses Nagamootoo’s strongest supporters during the 2015 campaign were the young, the women and the poor.  Six months later, this is the group that continues to be hammered by this economic downturn that developed under the Ramotar government. Today our productive sectors are plagued by institutional failures, lack of competitiveness, and lethargy, all of which limit the future prospects of the six sisters (rice, sugar, bauxite, gold, seafood and timber).  Guyana also suffers in 2015 from a flattening of inflows from the donor community, decline in remittances into the economy and a freezing of foreign direct investments.  Further, the international economic conditions continue to punish raw material producers.  This is really hard guava season. To compound this situation, Guyana’s energy policy is in total shambles.  A fair share of the fossil fuel generators selling power to GPL is inefficient and elderly.  Many of these generators will literally collapse in the next four to five years causing intensified blackouts, which will contribute to our lack of productivity. This lack of access to cheap and reliable electricity has put at higher risk, all the growth strategy for the emerging economy; be it BPO services such as call centers, e-commerce, and e-governance income generating projects and even medical tourism. Even the financial elites in the Guyanese private sector are bitterly complaining about the lack of adequate opportunities to grow their old wealth. So in the final analysis, until we start to roll out the policies to drive a national development plan, we can slice and dice this situation in as many ways we want, the economic downturn is a reality and we cannot wish it away.   Fixing our economic situations required skillful intervention in the sectors called the six sisters to fix many of the productivity issues inherited from the Jagdeo/Ramotar governments. The foreign currency earned from these six sisters is expected to decline in 2015 compared to 2014.  The GRIF inflow from Norway due to Guyana because of the Amaila Hydro project is now parked permanently because of a short-sighted lack of vision on the energy policy.  Remittances are down and consumption and foreign direct investment are flat.  Because of that foolish decision from the Ramotar government to ‘prorogue’ Parliament, capital expenditure is down in 2015. So where really is this economic growth coming from? If the business elites are correct, then these core supporters of the APNUAFC will be left far, far behind.  Everybody is dodging the conversation of class in Guyana, but it is a human development “time-bomb” waiting to explode. Too many Guyanese are locked into “poverty-like” circumstances where they are either living from paycheck to paycheck or handout to handout. The young urban Afro-Guyanese man who does not have a formal education continues to be overwhelmed. But even worst hit and at major risk, are the women with children from all races who were already poor when the Ramotar government arrived in 2011. The economic environment for all of these groups is an absolute and utter human disaster waiting to explode. Now we’re learning that the unmarried single mothers are among those being crushed by the epidemic of joblessness or underemployment. Can you seriously think about the young female special constabulary constables who take home less than $55,000 per month and who are the primary breadwinners for their families? We have to ignite these six sisters to shake off Guyana’s un-competitiveness and fast. But that will only happen if we start to construct an economy we can bank on that is focused on value-added products.