In where we are today we need to start with facts. I’ll present some.
- The Syrian situation today is where half the population fled Syria because of war and over 200,000 have died.
- The Kurds have their self-protected haven, ISIS controls the Sunni areas, and Assad controls the area that is Damascus and the coastal Alawite enclave.
- The Syrian situation today started 4 years ago with a civil protest that was part of the Arab spring. It has since turned into a 4-yr civil war.
- Russia has a Military Aid Agreement with Syria.
- Part of the Golan Heights is an Israeli buffer area as a result of the defeat of Syria and Egypt in the 1973 Yum Kippur war.
- Iranian military aid to Syria has always been a fact.
- Hezbollah has a militia in Syria
- ISIS did not exist in Syria at the beginning of the civil war until a year ago.
You may choose to argue that these are facts but if you accept them then we can start a conversation.
Two other facts to note that have a bearing on the situation in Syria today.
- The US failed miserably in Iraq in rebuilding and running that country after its invasion, and because of the peculiar demographic of a Shiite majority. By definition did not have much of an influence in the course of events after the Forces withdrawal following Bush’s Agreement with the Maliki government just prior to leaving office in 2008.
- The US failed miserably in Libya after deposing Qadaffi and that country is now in chaos.
You can add two more points of interest to the situation in Syria today.
- Afghanistan is ready to be taken over by the Taliban after the US pullout – again due to an agreement between two sovereign countries.
- Israel has an interest on its border with Syria.
I will throw in two other considerations that will put things in to perspective.
- Bibi Netanyahu met with Putin last week.
- The Soviet Union collapsed after its decade-long war with the Taliban –though there were other significant factors that led to its collapse.
So what am I trying to say? Donald Trump, whom I see as a buffoon made two prescient points today: (i) Putin’s recent military move in Syria is good for the US; and (ii) the world would have been better off with Saddam, Qadaffi and Assad in power.
Let me be very clear. Putin did what he was supposed to do 4 years ago, and he is only doing it now because, domestically, he needs a Ukraine diversion. Further, a few thousand ISIS fighters are Russian Muslims – Turkmen, Azerbaijis, Chechens, etc. He is worried about them returning home to Russia. Putin always backed Assad and only now he’s putting his money where his mouth is. He has begun to pound the non-ISIS anti-Assad forces – Al Nusra front, other Al Qaeda affiliates and the US-backed moderate rebels. ISIS hates Alawites as much as they hate Shiites.
Obama is smart, very smart, to stay out of this and only do its historic role – humanitarian. US air strikes help the Kurds and save the Yazidis from genocide. He got the Russians to relieve Assad of his chemical weapons – his barrel bombs are another story. The US has no partner there – just like Libya – and unless it is willing to engage in another trillion war with no good outcome, why not let Putin knock himself out and maybe cause his collapse in another costly Mideast war?
The Israelis have a lot of Russian Jews and Russian-speaking Israelis. It may not be close as its relationship with the US, but Israel and Russia have interests that are respected by each other. Netanyahu and Putin agreed to have no conflict in their roles in Syria. The Israelis are determined to attack any group – ISIS, Hezbollah or Al Qaeda affiliates – if they were to use the area close to the Golan Heights for Iranian precision-guided rockets to launch on Israel.
Now you know why praise for Putin is premature and lack of US leadership by its disengagement is not lack of leadership but playing it smartly.