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In where we are today we need to start with facts. I’ll present some.

  • The Syrian situation today is where half the population fled Syria because of war and over 200,000 have died.
  • The Kurds have their self-protected haven, ISIS controls the Sunni areas, and Assad controls the area that is Damascus and the coastal Alawite enclave.
  • The Syrian situation today started 4 years ago with a civil protest that was part of the Arab spring. It has since turned into a 4-yr civil war.
  • Russia has a Military Aid Agreement with Syria.
  • Part of the Golan Heights is an Israeli buffer area as a result of the defeat of Syria and Egypt in the 1973 Yum Kippur war.
  • Iranian military aid to Syria has always been a fact.
  • Hezbollah has a militia in Syria
  • ISIS did not exist in Syria at the beginning of the civil war until a year ago.

 

You may choose to argue that these are facts but if you accept them then we can start a conversation.

 

Two other facts to note that have a bearing on the situation in Syria today.

  • The US failed miserably in Iraq in rebuilding and running that country after its invasion, and because of the peculiar demographic of a Shiite majority. By definition did not have much of an influence in the course of events after the Forces withdrawal following Bush’s Agreement with the Maliki government just prior to leaving office in 2008.
  • The US failed miserably in Libya after deposing Qadaffi and that country is now in chaos.

 

You can add two more points of interest to the situation in Syria today.

  • Afghanistan is ready to be taken over by the Taliban after the US pullout – again due to an agreement between two sovereign countries.
  • Israel has an interest on its border with Syria.

 

I will throw in two other considerations that will put things in to perspective.

  • Bibi Netanyahu met with Putin last week.
  • The Soviet Union collapsed after its decade-long war with the Taliban –though there were other significant factors that led to its collapse.

 

So what am I trying to say? Donald Trump, whom I see as a buffoon made two prescient points today: (i) Putin’s recent military move in Syria is good for the US; and (ii) the world would have been better off with Saddam, Qadaffi and Assad in power.

 

Let me be very clear. Putin did what he was supposed to do 4 years ago, and he is only doing it now because, domestically, he needs a Ukraine diversion. Further, a few thousand ISIS fighters are Russian Muslims – Turkmen, Azerbaijis, Chechens, etc. He is worried about them returning home to Russia. Putin always backed Assad and only now he’s putting his money where his mouth is. He has begun to pound the non-ISIS anti-Assad forces – Al Nusra front, other Al Qaeda affiliates and the US-backed moderate rebels. ISIS hates Alawites as much as they hate Shiites.

 

Obama is smart, very smart, to stay out of this and only do its historic role – humanitarian. US air strikes help the Kurds and save the Yazidis from genocide. He got the Russians to relieve Assad of his chemical weapons – his barrel bombs are another story. The US has no partner there – just like Libya – and unless it is willing to engage in another trillion war with no good outcome, why not let Putin knock himself out and maybe cause his collapse in another costly Mideast war?

 

The Israelis have a lot of Russian Jews and Russian-speaking Israelis. It may not be close as its relationship with the US, but Israel and Russia have interests that are respected by each other. Netanyahu and Putin agreed to have no conflict in their roles in Syria. The Israelis are determined to attack any group – ISIS, Hezbollah or Al Qaeda affiliates – if they were to use the area close to the Golan Heights for Iranian precision-guided rockets to launch on Israel.

 

Now you know why praise for Putin is premature and lack of US leadership by its disengagement is not lack of leadership but playing it smartly.

Replies sorted oldest to newest

In His hands He got the whole world. The lives of people made miserable by those who have a false sense of being in charge. Putin can bring some stability for Assad-not Syria. But in the end, the Mid-East is dominated by evil men. Whatever gains that are made eventually passes through like sand and water through the fingers.

 

The Bible tells of the history of the region-it wasn't good. Today, it is like living in that Biblical period. Killings and be killed. Sad state of affairs of mans relationship with his fellow man.

S

There was a time when all these middle east tribes lived without threat of annihilation; but we've had three disruptive things that happened in that region.

  1. The colonial experience and especially with the discovery of oil, which put Sunnis, Shiites, Sufis, Alawites, Menonites, Yazinides, Kurds; etc. in boundaries that just begged for implosion.
  2. The holocaust that accelerated the tribe of Moses to head to Palestine.
  3. The asceticism of a strain of Islam that took hold of mainstream Islam.

People can live together, but there are some facts that must be noted and addressed. For example, Israel is a nuclear power whose existence being threatened will mean the release of a nuclear bomb somewhere; there must be boundaries redrawn, as we see them on the ground now - Kurds getting their own territory now (Turkey must also give up its fight against the Kurds and admin to the Armenian genocide); the Saudis must give up exporting a violent Wahhabism. Do these things and ISIS and Al Qaeda will be history. A military strong US cannot handle this.

Kari

Obama sat on his hands and allowed  Putin to take possession of an opportunity. The fear of what happened in Iraq and Libya soured policy makers to intervention. They did not care if Muslims killed each other. But Muslims began create Jihad against Christians and commit all sorts of barbarism and in the process generated the odium that is ISIS. Obama could have taken them out in a day and still can. But with Putin there why bother? He will have to attack ISIS and if the US supports any anti Assad faction the now will generate another era of proxy wars. Obama is directly responsible for this. He has to stand back. I do not see an opening here for him to side with Iran and the Soviet to bolster the Assad regime. Let the Russians get trapped in an endless war. To get our they will have to negotiate an exit for Assad. Meanwhile, arm the Kurds to the teeth with anti aircraft missiles etc.

FM
Originally Posted by D2:

Obama sat on his hands and allowed  Putin to take possession of an opportunity. The fear of what happened in Iraq and Libya soured policy makers to intervention. They did not care if Muslims killed each other. But Muslims began create Jihad against Christians and commit all sorts of barbarism and in the process generated the odium that is ISIS. Obama could have taken them out in a day and still can. But with Putin there why bother? He will have to attack ISIS and if the US supports any anti Assad faction the now will generate another era of proxy wars. Obama is directly responsible for this. He has to stand back. I do not see an opening here for him to side with Iran and the Soviet to bolster the Assad regime. Let the Russians get trapped in an endless war. To get our they will have to negotiate an exit for Assad. Meanwhile, arm the Kurds to the teeth with anti aircraft missiles etc.

D2, why would we arm the Kurds with anti-aircraft missles?

 

they will use them to shoot down Turkish airplanes . . . ISIS has no air force

 

[not endorsing the perfidy of the the Turks and the execrable Saudis/Qataris by this post]

FM
Last edited by Former Member
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by D2:

Obama sat on his hands and allowed  Putin to take possession of an opportunity. The fear of what happened in Iraq and Libya soured policy makers to intervention. They did not care if Muslims killed each other. But Muslims began create Jihad against Christians and commit all sorts of barbarism and in the process generated the odium that is ISIS. Obama could have taken them out in a day and still can. But with Putin there why bother? He will have to attack ISIS and if the US supports any anti Assad faction the now will generate another era of proxy wars. Obama is directly responsible for this. He has to stand back. I do not see an opening here for him to side with Iran and the Soviet to bolster the Assad regime. Let the Russians get trapped in an endless war. To get our they will have to negotiate an exit for Assad. Meanwhile, arm the Kurds to the teeth with anti aircraft missiles etc.

D2, why would we arm the Kurds with anti-aircraft missles?

 

they will use them to shoot down Turkish airplanes . . . ISIS has no air force

Putin just in case Putin goes after them. Iraqi Kurd I am talking about not the PKK.  The only reason I would be against arming them is because Turkey is in the EU and that would be problematic. I am not sympathetic to the Turks because they were brutish to these people.

FM
Originally Posted by D2:

Obama sat on his hands and allowed  Putin to take possession of an opportunity. The fear of what happened in Iraq and Libya soured policy makers to intervention. They did not care if Muslims killed each other. But Muslims began create Jihad against Christians and commit all sorts of barbarism and in the process generated the odium that is ISIS. Obama could have taken them out in a day and still can. But with Putin there why bother? He will have to attack ISIS and if the US supports any anti Assad faction the now will generate another era of proxy wars. Obama is directly responsible for this. He has to stand back. I do not see an opening here for him to side with Iran and the Soviet to bolster the Assad regime. Let the Russians get trapped in an endless war. To get our they will have to negotiate an exit for Assad. Meanwhile, arm the Kurds to the teeth with anti aircraft missiles etc.

D2, ask yourself why "Obama sat on his hands".

Ask about the genesis of ISIS - how was this organization formed and what is its makeup.

Ask yourself if Jihad (fight against US intervention due to the Iraq war)created ISIS.

Ask yourself what opportunity Putin took possession of. You will see that he reneged fort 4 years on his military aid to Assad and only when Assad threatened to pull out of Damascus and retreat to the Alawite coastal enclave that he acted. I'm surprised he didn't do this before to show that Russia still matters in spite of Crimea. Eastern Ukraine, the sanctions, falling oil revenues, dropping gold prices, devalued Rubble, shortages in Russi. Yeah, some opportunity!

Kari
Originally Posted by Kari:
Originally Posted by D2:

Obama sat on his hands and allowed  Putin to take possession of an opportunity. The fear of what happened in Iraq and Libya soured policy makers to intervention. They did not care if Muslims killed each other. But Muslims began create Jihad against Christians and commit all sorts of barbarism and in the process generated the odium that is ISIS. Obama could have taken them out in a day and still can. But with Putin there why bother? He will have to attack ISIS and if the US supports any anti Assad faction the now will generate another era of proxy wars. Obama is directly responsible for this. He has to stand back. I do not see an opening here for him to side with Iran and the Soviet to bolster the Assad regime. Let the Russians get trapped in an endless war. To get our they will have to negotiate an exit for Assad. Meanwhile, arm the Kurds to the teeth with anti aircraft missiles etc.

D2, ask yourself why "Obama sat on his hands".

Ask about the genesis of ISIS - how was this organization formed and what is its makeup.

Ask yourself if Jihad (fight against US intervention due to the Iraq war)created ISIS.

Ask yourself what opportunity Putin took possession of. You will see that he reneged fort 4 years on his military aid to Assad and only when Assad threatened to pull out of Damascus and retreat to the Alawite coastal enclave that he acted. I'm surprised he didn't do this before to show that Russia still matters in spite of Crimea. Eastern Ukraine, the sanctions, falling oil revenues, dropping gold prices, devalued Rubble, shortages in Russi. Yeah, some opportunity!

I answered why I think he sat on his hands.  I do not want to go through the incubation of period of this disease called ISIS. Malaki and Iraq's shia became a surrogate of Iran and the disenchanted Sunnis revolted. That they did  have legitimate reason did not inevitably mean the devolution to reversed humans in ISIS either. That is a consequence of the fragility of Islam. Its lack of coherence of core beliefs and its dependence on official interpreters of the faith as guides rather than a general understanding acceptance that the common man can directly access its understanding gives rise to these massive backward  cults. Add to that a crude paternalism and you have a recipe for the jihadist apocalypse that is ISIS.

 

You may not like my explanation but you asked. I answered. ISIS is a consequence of a people losing faith with government and gravitating to a false mullah because they are not conditioned to find it in themselves.

 

Putin is a global political actor. The is guided by interest and the possibility of a new hegemony.  His movement into Syria was forewarned. He is vulnerable to militant Islam. He has the whole of Chechnya on his mind. The Kazaks are not that friendly either and they are a feeder lane to ISIS Iran is his natural ally here. With Obama not doing anything to impact change in the region  he deployed a fleet of aging aircraft an munitions and is looking for good position in the region.After all ISIS will not survive. Everyone is hell bent of being a cure for that disease. Even  if Assad goes, the Russians will have to be at the table. Iran is a powerful nation if it gets its house together and the Russian sees them with their 80 million people as a valuable asset in terms of mutual trade etc.  The move here for Putin is a win win and the US is at its wits end.

FM
Last edited by Former Member
Originally Posted by D2:
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by D2:

Obama sat on his hands and allowed  Putin to take possession of an opportunity. The fear of what happened in Iraq and Libya soured policy makers to intervention. They did not care if Muslims killed each other. But Muslims began create Jihad against Christians and commit all sorts of barbarism and in the process generated the odium that is ISIS. Obama could have taken them out in a day and still can. But with Putin there why bother? He will have to attack ISIS and if the US supports any anti Assad faction the now will generate another era of proxy wars. Obama is directly responsible for this. He has to stand back. I do not see an opening here for him to side with Iran and the Soviet to bolster the Assad regime. Let the Russians get trapped in an endless war. To get our they will have to negotiate an exit for Assad. Meanwhile, arm the Kurds to the teeth with anti aircraft missiles etc.

D2, why would we arm the Kurds with anti-aircraft missles?

 

they will use them to shoot down Turkish airplanes . . . ISIS has no air force

Putin just in case Putin goes after them. Iraqi Kurd I am talking about not the PKK.  The only reason I would be against arming them is because Turkey is in the EU and that would be problematic. I am not sympathetic to the Turks because they were brutish to these people.

The Turks are the ancient ppl of Anatolia-they were the dominant tribe in the ancient world. And prophetically are to be on the rise as they were as the Ottoman Empire. 

S
Originally Posted by seignet:
Originally Posted by D2:
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by D2:

Obama sat on his hands and allowed  Putin to take possession of an opportunity. The fear of what happened in Iraq and Libya soured policy makers to intervention. They did not care if Muslims killed each other. But Muslims began create Jihad against Christians and commit all sorts of barbarism and in the process generated the odium that is ISIS. Obama could have taken them out in a day and still can. But with Putin there why bother? He will have to attack ISIS and if the US supports any anti Assad faction the now will generate another era of proxy wars. Obama is directly responsible for this. He has to stand back. I do not see an opening here for him to side with Iran and the Soviet to bolster the Assad regime. Let the Russians get trapped in an endless war. To get our they will have to negotiate an exit for Assad. Meanwhile, arm the Kurds to the teeth with anti aircraft missiles etc.

D2, why would we arm the Kurds with anti-aircraft missles?

 

they will use them to shoot down Turkish airplanes . . . ISIS has no air force

Putin just in case Putin goes after them. Iraqi Kurd I am talking about not the PKK.  The only reason I would be against arming them is because Turkey is in the EU and that would be problematic. I am not sympathetic to the Turks because they were brutish to these people.

The Turks are the ancient ppl of Anatolia-they were the dominant tribe in the ancient world. And prophetically are to be on the rise as they were as the Ottoman Empire. 

I do not believe in prophesy but the right of a people to live in peace and in autonomous ways in their ancient homelands. The US support Israel so it support these Kurds for some autonomy in turkey. But all things are not fair and some people are unlucky to be left our because they do not have many friends in the first world.

FM

When People are not at the civilized level to live in PEACE with each other there is nothing anyone can do to help them. The Middle East is one of the RICHEST part of the World BUT too many IDIOTS are in charge and in POWER.  Like the Republicans and many others will say " Better there than here".

Nehru
Originally Posted by D2:
I answered why I think he sat on his hands.  I do not want to go through the incubation of period of this disease called ISIS. Malaki and Iraq's shia became a surrogate of Iran and the disenchanted Sunnis revolted. That they did  have legitimate reason did not inevitably mean the devolution to reversed humans in ISIS either. That is a consequence of the fragility of Islam. Its lack of coherence of core beliefs and its dependence on official interpreters of the faith as guides rather than a general understanding acceptance that the common man can directly access its understanding gives rise to these massive backward  cults. Add to that a crude paternalism and you have a recipe for the jihadist apocalypse that is ISIS.

 

You may not like my explanation but you asked. I answered. ISIS is a consequence of a people losing faith with government and gravitating to a false mullah because they are not conditioned to find it in themselves.

 

Putin is a global political actor. The is guided by interest and the possibility of a new hegemony.  His movement into Syria was forewarned. He is vulnerable to militant Islam. He has the whole of Chechnya on his mind. The Kazaks are not that friendly either and they are a feeder lane to ISIS Iran is his natural ally here. With Obama not doing anything to impact change in the region  he deployed a fleet of aging aircraft an munitions and is looking for good position in the region.After all ISIS will not survive. Everyone is hell bent of being a cure for that disease. Even  if Assad goes, the Russians will have to be at the table. Iran is a powerful nation if it gets its house together and the Russian sees them with their 80 million people as a valuable asset in terms of mutual trade etc.  The move here for Putin is a win win and the US is at its wits end.

D2, if anybody is going to gravitate "to a false mullah" you must be referring to the Taliban in Afghanistan. There are  no self-styled Mullahs in Syria - just the self-appointed Caliph and the ISIS fighter. So let's not confuse the two.

 

Also "ISIS is a consequence of a people losing faith with government" has me shaking my head in wonderment as the fighters of ISIS did not have to lose faith in any government, they were kicked out by Bush-backed Maliki during Baathification. Remember ISIS was a faction within the Al Qaeda umbrellah fighting US troops and the Iraqi government. So let's be clear about our history here.

 

ISIS devolving to "reverse humans" is not "a consequence of the fragility of Islam". Whatever you may think of Islam, it is not possessed of a fragile state. There is the Holy Quran, the Hadiths, the over 1 billion of adherents, and the history of its practice. Is that a state of fragility?

 

So "Putin is a global political actor", Holy Columbus (or is it Caramba?!). Where does Putin have treaties and military bases and membership of military alliance? Global actor??? I don't see Russia in the Pacific region or Latin America or Africa. Do Syria and Crimea count as global? Russia is only involved in the 5+1 nations over the Iran nuclear negotiations, and it helped its friend Assad from being bombed by the US by agreeing to take and destroy its chemical stockpiles. Global actor??? Think before you write.

 

In referring to Obama you said you "answered why I think he sat on his hands". Where? Did you read what I wrote? Putin did what he did in Syria out of weakness. Assad was ready to be over-run by the dreaded ISIS and Putin wants to maintain its only naval base outside of Russia.

 

 
 
Kari

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