Pre-election poll finds… Opposition alliance favours Ramotar/Harper ticket …APNU supporters upset over concessions to smaller AFC – 83% distrusted secret talks
AN opinion poll conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) in February has found that a majority of the nation opposes the formation of an alliance between the two main Opposition parties, A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) and the Alliance For Change (AFC).
The findings of the poll released over the weekend revealed that voters feel the alliance instead of defeating the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) will help its re-election with incumbent President Donald Ramotar and recently announced Elisabeth Harper, as prime minister.
The findings of the poll were obtained through interviews with 620 voters to yield a demographically representative sample of 42 per cent Indians, 31 per cent Africans, 17 per cent Mixed, nine per cent Amerindians, and One per cent of other races in the population.
The poll was conducted through face-to-face interviews and was coordinated by New York-based pollster, Dr. Vishnu Bisram.
Its results have been analysed at a 95 per cent significance level with a statistical sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.
According to its findings, supporters of the AFC and the PPP find that a People’s National Congress (PNC)-led ticket evokes memories of the insidious plan to topple the PPP in 1964, with the PNC-United Force (UF) alliance, the ejection of the UF from the ruling coalition, and the dictatorial abuses that followed.
“Supporters and sympathisers of the AFC are seething in discontent with the party for entering into a union with the APNU (PNC), leading to an exodus in support for the party,” according to the findings of the polls.
It was found too that supporters of the PNC “are also angry with their leadership for giving up too much to the AFC to form the alliance that may not win the election.”
Dr Bisram’s 2015 early election poll unearthed that members and supporters of the AFC are also turned off by what they perceive as “the leadership cutting deals for positions for themselves and not consulting with them on entering into an alliance with the PNC.”
It was found that an overall majority of voters expressed the view that the AFC erred in forming an alliance with APNU (PNC) and “say it will pay a heavy price even if the alliance wins, because many feel that the PNC cannot be trusted with power given its past.”
Elisabeth Harper
The poll revealed too that the nation is still largely divided along racial lines on the alliance issue as well as on other issues.
“Almost every Indian is opposed to the alliance, while a large majority of Africans and people of Mixed races endorse it. A majority of Amerindians are also opposed to the alliance…It is generally felt that had the AFC remained independent from the PNC, it would have built on its current support.”
According to Dr Bisram’s findings, the AFC supporters said if former PPP stalwart Moses Nagamootoo were the presidential candidate of the newly formed alliance, they would have considered voting for it. The findings unearthed too that some among other ethnic groups that had planned to vote for the AFC have also had a change of heart for the party because of the alliance.
“Many Indians support former Speaker Ralph Ramkarran as a consensus presidential candidate saying if he were the candidate of the alliance, they would vote for it.”
Asked whether APNU and the AFC should jointly contest the elections as one party, 55 per cent said ‘no’, 38 per cent responded affirmatively, while seven per cent were not sure.
“Almost every Indian said no with a large majority of Africans and Mixed-race peoples saying ‘yes’; most Amerindians also opposed it,” according to the findings of the poll.
It was observed too that many PNC supporters also registered opposition to the alliance, saying that their party would have had a good chance of capturing power in a plurality if the AFC had contested separately and split the PPP support base.
Asked if they support the secret nature of the negotiations between the APNU and AFC to form an alliance, 83 per cent said no, feeling they have something to hide, while only eight per cent supported the secret talks between the two parties with nine per cent offering no opinion.
Asked who should be the presidential candidate of the alliance, Indians overwhelmingly backed Nagamootoo, while Africans overwhelmingly supported Opposition Leader Brigadier (rtd) David Granger. According to the findings of the poll, some respondents felt Carl Greenidge should be the presidential candidate, describing him as the most qualified and experienced and internationally exposed among the potential contenders.
On the question of who should be the presidential candidate for APNU in the absence of an alliance, supporters are divided down the middle between Granger and Carl Greenidge.
For the AFC, in the absence of an alliance, Nagamootoo leads Nigel Hughes in presidential preference among supporters.
Almost every Indian and Amerindian supporter of the AFC backs Nagamootoo, while Africans and Mixed peoples lean towards Hughes.
The poll also quizzed voters on how they plan to vote, and the findings will be released in a subsequent report.
