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FM
Former Member

cnn.com

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll.

Trump tops Clinton 45% to 43% in the new survey, with Libertarian Gary Johnson standing at 7% among likely voters in this poll and the Green Party's Jill Stein at just 2%.

How Donald Trump could win

The topsy-turvy campaign for the presidency has seen both Clinton and Trump holding a significant lead at some point in the last two months, though Clinton has topped Trump more often than not. Most recently, Clinton's convention propelled her to an 8-point lead among registered voters in an early-August CNN/ORC Poll. Clinton's lead has largely evaporated despite a challenging month for Trump, which saw an overhaul of his campaign staff, announcements of support for Clinton from several high-profile Republicans and criticism of his campaign strategy. But most voters say they still expect to see Clinton prevail in November, and 59% think she will be the one to get to 270 electoral votes vs. 34% who think Trump has the better shot at winning.

Read: The complete CNN/ORC poll results

Neither major third party candidate appears to be making the gains necessary to reach the 15% threshold set by the Commission on Presidential Debates, with just three weeks to go before the first debate on September 26.

The new poll finds the two major party candidates provoke large gaps by gender, age, race, education and partisanship. Among those likely to turn out in the fall, both candidates have secured about the same share of their own partisans (92% of Democrats back Clinton, 90% of Republicans are behind Trump) but independents give Trump an edge, 49% say they'd vote for him while just 29% of independent voters back Clinton. Another 16% back Johnson, 6% Stein.

Women break for Clinton (53% to 38%) while men shift Trump's way (54% to 32%). Among women, those who are unmarried make up the core of her support, 73% of unmarried women back Clinton compared with just 36% of married women. Among men, no such marriage gap emerges, as both unmarried and married men favor Trump.

Younger voters are in Clinton's corner (54% to 29% among those under age 45) while the older ones are more apt to back Trump (54% to 39% among those age 45 or older). Whites mostly support Trump (55% to 34%), while non-whites favor Clinton by a nearly 4-to-1 margin (71% to 18%). Most college grads back Clinton while those without degrees mostly support Trump, and that divide deepens among white voters. Whites who do not hold college degrees support Trump by an almost 3-to-1 margin (68% to 24%) while whites who do have college degrees split 49% for Clinton to 36% for Trump and 11% for Johnson.

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Nehru posted:

I saw this. Oh Skont time to pack my Grip.

Well, many of you had great practice living under Obama so under the PNC would be a smooth transition.  But seriously, only illegals and Islamic terroists sympathizers need to worry!

Blacks will be better off under Trump!  Obama has been a disaster.  the American Economy has a large bubble inflated by monopoly money.  It's a lot of fakery, Obama's voodoo economics!!

FM
Prince posted:

I always maintained that Trump needs to stay focus and Hillary is history.

Whether Trump stays focused or not, he will get the greatest surprise in his life when he realises in November 2016 that Hillary Clinton is elected President of the US_of_A.

However as a consolation, he could watch from his building which is under construction not far from the White House and dream of his desires to be the one in there.

FM

Let's all keep in mind that the Electoral College cotes elect the President of the USA. Hillary is one of the weakest Democratic campaigners, but a smart politician. Trump is only weak because he's a whacko and harmed a lot of people with his business dealings including the US Treasury. This is some sad election and really put into perspective what a gift we had in Obama.

Kari

The CNN poll might be good news for Clinton regarding the complacency of her supporters that she has this thing wrapped up.

Here's a New Republic article on the poll.

 

Donald Trump is ahead of Hillary Clinton in a poll, but it’s still not time to panic.

Way back in July, on the first day of the DNC, a lot of people freaked out because Donald Trump overtook Hillary Clinton in FiveThirtyEight’s Now Cast poll. Trump’s lead then came as the result of the post-convention bounce many candidates get, but at the time I wrote that everything was fine: Post-convention bounces are normal and they go away. More importantly, polling doesn’t start to be really indicative until after both conventions—and it doesn’t start to be really, really indicative until after Labor Day. Trump’s went away fairly quickly, thanks in large part to his response to Khizr Khan’s DNC speech, and Clinton’s kept her well ahead of Trump for most of August.

Well, both conventions have come and gone, Labor Day was twelve hours ago, and Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton again, sort of—a CNN/ORC poll has Trump leading Clinton by two points, meaning that they are effectively tied. So, is it time to panic now?

Nope.

Clinton has finally shed the sizable bounce she got after the DNC, but she is still in a pretty good place if you look at the big picture. National polls like the CNN/ORC poll matter less than national polling averages, where Clinton still leads Trump, as The Washington Post’s Greg Sargent points out, by three to five points, and state polling averages, where Clinton is leading Trump in most of the key swing states. Trump is still struggling with every category of voters who aren’t non-college educated whites, and there’s no sign that he’s making necessary inroads with voters outside of his base, which helps explain why he’s rarely ever captured more than 45 percent of the vote in any individual poll.

Clinton’s supporters—and anyone who doesn’t want Donald Trump to be president—are understandably jumpy, but with less than seventy days to the election, the fundamentals all look pretty good for Clinton. For now, Trump’s lead in a couple of polls looks a bit like Clinton’s cough—it grabs headlines and drives traffic, but doesn’t tell us anything particularly meaningful about the election itself. Of course, Clinton’s lead isn’t insurmountable and the race is getting tighter, but it’s not time to panic.

 

Kari

http://www.nbcnews.com/politic...l-weeks-poll-n642931

Clinton Holds Steady Against Trump as Campaign Enters Final Weeks: Poll

Hillary Clinton's national lead over Donald Trump remains steady at 6 points, according to the latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll.

Clinton currently enjoys 48 percent support while Trump maintains 42 percent — the same margin as last week. The latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll was conducted online from August 29 through September 4 among registered voters.

 
 
 

In a four-way general election match-up, Clinton leads Trump by a slightly narrower 4-point margin — 41 percent to 37 percent. That is also unchanged from last week. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson gains a single point in support with 12 points and Green Party candidate Jill Stein drops a single point with 4 percent.

 
 
 

Both candidates enter a crucial period of campaigning as get-out-the-vote efforts ramp up in key swing states in the last two months ahead of the general election in November.

Related: Ready, Set, Go: Election Sprint Begins Now

Clinton continues to do well in the Northeast and West but Trump remains competitive with her in the Midwest and South. Currently, the Democratic nominee holds a 16-point lead in the Northeast — 53 percent to 37 percent — and a 16-point lead in the West.

Trump and Clinton are now tied in the Midwest — which includes crucial battleground states like Ohio and Iowa — and Trump has a 1-point lead in the South.

 
 
 

Clinton's campaign raised nearly $150 million in August — making last month the best fundraising haul she's had in the entire campaign cycle. A large portion of this money will likely be devoted to targeting voters through advertisements and get out the vote efforts in key battleground states.

Trump continues to lag behind Clinton in both fundraising and spending and will need to make up crucial ground in outreach efforts to stay competitive with the Democratic campaign in the months ahead.

 

Mars
Kari posted:

. This is some sad election and really put into perspective what a gift we had in Obama.

Strip aside the fine oratory and what do we have with Obama, other than he isn't as bad as George Bush?  The job growth is more a function of low interest rate policies of the Feds than anything that he did. He did the auto bailout.....and......????  

The stimulus was timid, and not enough, and he didn't pursue the Infrastructure Bank as he was too busy trying to get the GOP to love him.  Now suppose the Feds bought bonds issued by the Infrastructure bank then our roads, bridges and water systems would be fixed and more decent paying jobs would have been created 5 years ago.

But we have low interest rates and an anemic economic recovery.  Granted better than the EU, but then they have unique problems of their own, as does the UK.

FM
ba$eman posted:

No And Putin has a shit load of emails yet to publish.

And the thing is that you aren't even worried that a thug like Putin wants Trump in power.  Trump owes Putin's oligarchs big time, given that no one in the USA wants to finance Trump, given his history of multiple bankruptcies.

Russian mafia running the USA is something that you think is a good thing.

FM
caribny posted:
Kari posted:

. This is some sad election and really put into perspective what a gift we had in Obama.

Strip aside the fine oratory and what do we have with Obama, other than he isn't as bad as George Bush?  The job growth is more a function of low interest rate policies of the Feds than anything that he did. He did the auto bailout.....and......????  

The stimulus was timid, and not enough, and he didn't pursue the Infrastructure Bank as he was too busy trying to get the GOP to love him.  Now suppose the Feds bought bonds issued by the Infrastructure bank then our roads, bridges and water systems would be fixed and more decent paying jobs would have been created 5 years ago.

But we have low interest rates and an anemic economic recovery.  Granted better than the EU, but then they have unique problems of their own, as does the UK.

Obama understands that income inequality is here to stay and the nation needs to approach it from mitigating its impact on society. Most billionaires want to give their money to philanthropy to give opportunities to underprivileged children and to provide societal goods to make for for the inequality. We're in the forest now and cannot see the way rich people view inequality.

In that same vein the Affordable Care Act is meant to relieve the cost of health care - avoid middle calss bankruptcies and bring medical attention to the poor who have been shut out except the pathetic emergency facilities.

He helped the budget by stopping wars and spending efficiently on methods where he has to carry the fight to terrorists. This is an economic move that gets little attention.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Treaty setting the rules of fair trade in the largest economic bloc and lowering thousands of tariffs thus helping poor consumers in america is an Obama initiative that has been torn apart by politics.

The Infrastructure banks and the deficit spending are stuck in a Republican Congress.He got the ACA passed through budget reconciliation when he had the proper majorities in Congress. The budget increases were another matter. He wasn't trying to make nice to Repugs and thus lost the opportunity.

You minimize the circular effects of the auto bailout. Typical. You fail to mention what he did for the housing sector during the crisis. Both of these affect the wealth effect and thus consumer spending. You did not mention the public lands he opened up to shale oil and what that had to do with keeping Russia pinned down economically along with his sanctions and the dropping price of gold. You conveniently did not mention the public sector jobs that were disappearing faster than your fairness and how that headwind and a failing world economy that led to lessen demand for American goods and yet Obama managed to keep the job market churning. Bannah, gimme a break about the Obama economy. You are obviously chagrined that in spite of all he did for Blacks and poor people (including efforts to reform the justice system) you do not see billionaire Blacks and hence you see the white part of Obama and claim he's not that good.

Kari

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