Indeed, pity the souls who are/will be lost in the wilderness with Trump.

ba$eman posted:

.

There was never state sponsored anything.  .!

No the state merely outsourced killing blacks to private sector funded goons, some now engage in routine crime.

Kari posted:

CARIBNY teaching me about gerrymandering. Like he's been under a rock the past 3 election cycles when I was posting a lot about the nuances of the Electoral College votes, the Congressional district voting and the States (3 seat per statewide) voting. He has missed my comments on voter turnout, college-educated and non-college-educated; the shrinking white middle class and the rising Hispanic bloc, including the traditionally Cuban Republicans in Florida. Teach on CARIBNY....you looking very professorial and knowledgeable.

Kari I know you hold forth in the bars of RH, pretending that you know it all, and then repeat stuff that I told you about long ago, and now pretend that you told me.

FACT.  The GOP have been taking over governorships, and state legislatures for a while. FACT.  On the basis of the 2010 census they extended their gerrymandering.  FACT. Gerrymandering started long ago.  Did you ever hear of Boss Tweed?  FACT.  Given this gerrymandering, and the increasingly racially polarized voting in the South (it is as tribal as it is in Guyana) this isn't going to change in the near term.

Now Kari.  NC has a growing Hispanic population.  It also has seen rapid in migration of educated people into Charlotte and RDU. Its black population has also increased as many leave NY to return to their ancestral roots.

Notwithstanding this in 2010 for the first time in 100 years the GOP took over BOTH houses in the state legislature.  And in 2012 they elected the FIRST GOP governor.

Now Dear Kari, please place this within the context of a state that is a poster child for the very demographic changes that you allude to.

Save your tantrum for one of your RH rum shop buddies. I operate on the basis of facts and nuanced analysis.  I also don't live embedded among a bunch of immigrants, so know a fair amount about how this country functions.

And yes as NC, VA, TX, and GA, states also benefitting from demographic change have expanded, the electoral seat allocation has increased whereas those in the Midwest and the Northeast have declined.  Ironically this has benefitted the GOP.  VA might be lost to them, but they definitely have GA, and TX is a giant, given that it has the 2nd highest electoral seat allocation. 

We will see where NC goes this time.  Filled with Angry White Men, and their illiterate wives its good Trump territory, even more than it was for Romney.

ba$eman posted:

A renewed Trump surge is in the works.  .

You are even sillier than Kari. Hillary has the advantage and she won points for her excellent acceptance speech.  But victory isn't guaranteed.

Trump is likely to cause his own defeat.  Not Hillary.  As he spouts racism, angers the media, and continues acting like a lunatic, more and more moderates and independents will see him as an embarrassment.

Even as we speak more and more GOP are preparing to sit this one out, knowing that because of age, Hillary is likely to be a one term president.

That outburst about an American judge hurt Trump big time among the suburban voters.  If Trump doesn't win that group then he can kiss good bye to the presidency.  The GOP already get the Angry White Man vote, and can ill afford to lose the Affluent White Man vote.

The media have it in for Trump.  They will not need him for ratings, as they did in the primaries.  So will stick it to him, in fear that if he wins he will turn this country into a fascist dictatorship.

seignet posted:

shrinking white middle-class makes more red-necks.

No it doesn't.  It just means that rednecks, who fooled themselves that they were middle class, because they were white, now know that they aren't.

ba$eman posted:

Danyael posted:

Counting Trump "in" is absurd. I read somewhere about the "lost tribe of the Amazon" theory  to refute the  Trump strategy.  He believes if he gets 70 percent of the white vote he will not have to worry about the minority vote.

 

those lost tribes!!  Pity on their souls!!

And he isn't going to get 70% of the white vote.  Romney got 61%, and he lost.

Trump will lose some white female voters, just over 50% of which went to Romney last time.

He will lose suburban white men, who also split their votes with Romney last time.

There will be more than a few GOP who remain angry with Trump, enraged by the positions that he has put the GOP in (exposing the fact that the GOP have been doing racism lite for the past 47 years). And they might sit it out, voting for senate and congressional positions.

His big hope is that the Obama base don't turn out in large numbers, but then he has angered the Latinos ants nest.  Even those who aren't interest in immigrant issues, because they are 3rd/4th generation Americans become very concerned when Trump implies that a Hispanic cannot do his job.

The risk for Hillary is if the Sanders extremists decide to riot at the Convention if their Lord Bernie Sanders isn't anointed.  Further risk is if blacks and youth voters revert to pre Obama voting levels.

But I will say that Hillary has a 55% chance of winning.  Trump is racing to ensure that he does as he pulls his male Sarah Palin act.

CARIBNY will shed tears once Hillary wins. He's waiting for the donald to triumph so he can say "told you so" to all those parroting his wisdom in Richmond Hill bars. The guy is rooting for the Donald so he can see his "brilliance" retrofitted. Nothing pains him more than a President Clinton in 2017.

Kari posted:

CARIBNY will shed tears once Hillary wins. He's waiting for the donald to triumph so he can say "told you so" to all those parroting his wisdom in Richmond Hill bars. The guy is rooting for the Donald so he can see his "brilliance" retrofitted. Nothing pains him more than a President Clinton in 2017.

Baseman predict a very close and vry divisive race but Trump will come out on top!!

Kari posted:

CARIBNY will shed tears once Hillary wins.

I am seriously worried about you. Kari.  You are an educated men, but clearly you mix with uneducated peasants, so have begun to think like them.

Now please go and tell Bill Clinton, and the numerous other Democratic party advisors that they all want Donald to win.

You seriously need to stop getting your information from drunks in RH bars and listen to what political analysts on NPR, CNN, MSNBC and other channels say.

Even last night on CNN there was talk that Donald plans to open up the Rust Belt, and that Hillary has a problem with white working class men, and with young voters.

Are you telling me that every one except you wants Donald to win? Because you are one of the few people who peddles the nonsense that the election is a slam dunk and Hillary just needs to show up at the Presidential inauguration. Bill doesn't and neither do the folks who worked on the 2008 and 2012 election campaigns.

ba$eman posted:

Kari posted:

CARIBNY will shed tears once Hillary wins. He's waiting for the donald to triumph so he can say "told you so" to all those parroting his wisdom in Richmond Hill bars. The guy is rooting for the Donald so he can see his "brilliance" retrofitted. Nothing pains him more than a President Clinton in 2017.

Baseman predict a very close and vry divisive race but Trump will come out on top!!

And you are just as silly as Kari.  Trump is a buffoon who embarrasses many in the GOP. Large numbers of white suburbanites don't want anything to do with them. 

How they vote, or even whether they vote is a function of their opinion of Hillary.  They will pick the less "evil" of the two.

This election will depend on how the various factions vote, and how effective the campaigns use the media and have get out to vote apparatus.

I suggest that both you and Kari put down the bottle.

Hanging out with immigrant peasants who only encounter Americans at work, and are submissive and docile to them.  And then rush back to their ethnic enclave aren't people to listen to.

This isn't Guyana where we have an ethnic census with the Indian, on the one side and the African/mixed on the other.  With victory going to the party best at getting out their tribe and getting Amerindian support.

The USA is way more complex and Americans don't place a high priority on voting, unless they feel terrified, or inspired.

And Kari I don't talk politics with unassimilated immigrants.  I leave that to you.

ba$eman posted:

Baseman predict a very close and vry divisive race but Trump will come out on top!!

Indeed, Trump will be on top of the looser pile while Hillary Clinton is sworn-in on January 2017 as the next President of the US_of_A.

Demerara_Guy posted:

ba$eman posted:

Baseman predict a very close and vry divisive race but Trump will come out on top!!

Indeed, Trump will be on top of the looser pile while Hillary Clinton is sworn-in on January 2017 as the next President of the US_of_A.

Hillary's victory will not be tied to what she does.  Trump is trying very hard to ensure a Hillary victory.

The Donald and Bill must be laughing at their Machiavellian plot to destroy the GOP.