Skip to main content

Replies sorted oldest to newest

In Ohio it's all about demographics and identity politics. 3 weeks ago this was competitive but Trump has pulled ahead slightly, so it's still considered close. Clinton strategists originally did not think this was winnable, then after the convention they saw an opening and pounced and led briefly, then the email issue descended and she began to slip in the polls. This is 18 Electoral College votes she can afford to lose.

 

Trump's chances in the past 3 weeks also went up in these States, but he's still behind Hillary in the polls there (NY Times Upshot):

  • Nevada - 34% chance of Trump winning (Nate Silver 538 has Trump by 52%)
  • No. Carolina - 34% chance of Trump winning (Nate Silver 538 has Trump by 52%)
  • Florida - 30% chance of Trump winning (Nate Silver 538 has Trump by 53%)
  • Colorado - 14% chance of Trump winning (Nate Silver 538 has Trump at 27% chance)
  • Minnesota - 10% chance of Trump winning % chance of Trump winning (Nate Silver 538 has Trump at 20% chance)
  • Pennsylvania - 11 % chance of Trump winning (Nate Silver 538 has Trump at 26% chance)
Kari
Kari posted:

In Ohio it's all about demographics and identity politics. 3 weeks ago this was competitive but Trump has pulled ahead slightly, so it's still considered close. Clinton strategists originally did not think this was winnable, then after the convention they saw an opening and pounced and led briefly, then the email issue descended and she began to slip in the polls. This is 18 Electoral College votes she can afford to lose.

 

Trump's chances in the past 3 weeks also went up in these States, but he's still behind Hillary in the polls there (NY Times Upshot):

  • Nevada - 34% chance of Trump winning (Nate Silver 538 has Trump by 52%)
  • No. Carolina - 34% chance of Trump winning (Nate Silver 538 has Trump by 52%)
  • Florida - 30% chance of Trump winning (Nate Silver 538 has Trump by 53%)
  • Colorado - 14% chance of Trump winning (Nate Silver 538 has Trump at 27% chance)
  • Minnesota - 10% chance of Trump winning % chance of Trump winning (Nate Silver 538 has Trump at 20% chance)
  • Pennsylvania - 11 % chance of Trump winning (Nate Silver 538 has Trump at 26% chance)

Banna, these different polls with such specific information dont mean a rats ass at this stage. There are too many pollsters who are trying to make a name and there are too many specific information that does not mean much. At this stage, its too much information and may not be that accurate when other polls are showing close races in some states

What we know, and what really matters is that national polls show Clinton winning, and Latino votes will push her on top.  

The fact that the FBI has just ended their probe is enough to tip some holding independents in her favor now. Clinton wins....with more than 270 electoral college votes.

Republicans can only hope to block her policies and make hers a one term presidency.

V
VishMahabir posted:

The fact that the FBI has just ended their probe is enough to tip some holding independents in her favor now. Clinton wins....with more than 270 electoral college votes.

Republicans can only hope to block her policies and make hers a one term presidency.

Unlikely ...

1. Indications are that there is a strong opportunity for the Democrats to win both the Senate and possible the house of representative.

2. Hillary Clinton is a experienced politicians who works with members of both sides to accomplish tasks.

3. With Hillary Clinton elected as president of the US_of_A, her approach to will definitelt see her winning two terms.

FM

Add Reply

×
×
×
×
×
Link copied to your clipboard.
×
×