Turkey 'planning to invade Syria'
National Security Council meets to discuss plan to send in troops to set up buffer zone and prevent formation of Kurdish state
By Richard Spencer, Middle East Editor, 4:34PM BST 29 Jun 2015, Source
Turkey’s security cabinet was on Monday considering plans to send troops into Syria for the first time, turning the civil war into an international conflict on Europe’s borders.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has authorised a change in the rules of engagement previously agreed by the Turkish parliament to allow the army to strike at Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, as well as the Assad regime.
But he has suggested the main target of the intervention, if it goes ahead, will be to prevent the emergence of a new Kurdish state on Turkey’s doorstep. The local Syrian Kurdish militia, the YPG, has established dominance in a border strip across the north of the country in recent month, fighting off Isil.
"We will never allow the establishment of a state in Syria's north and our south,” Mr Erdogan said at the weekend. “We will continue our fight in this regard no matter what it costs."
Turkey has urged the creation of a buffer zone protected by international forces in the north of Syria ever since the Syrian war spiralled out of control and sent hundreds of thousands of refugees across the border.
That figure is now approaching two million, making Turkey the single largest host of refugees of any country in the world.
But before Monday's meeting of the national security council it has previously refused to countenance “going it alone” in intervention in Syria.
Following Mr Erdogan’s speech, Turkish media were briefed on new orders being given to the military to prepare to send a force 18,000-strong across the border, with some reports saying the move could take place as early as Friday.
The troops would seize a stretch of territory 60 miles long by 20 deep into Syria, including the border crossings of Jarablus, currently in Isil hands, and Aazaz, currently controlled by the Free Syrian Army but under attack from Isil.
The buffer zone would kill several birds with one stone. As well has allowing Turkey to establish refugee camps not on its soil but under its protection, it would prevent the two current zones of Kurdish control - from Kobane to the Iraq border in the east, and Afrin in the west - from joining up.
It would also allow Turkey to control the flow of weapons and fighters into Syria - something that critics say it has not done well enough, thus encouraging the rise of Isil.
Changing the rules of engagement would give Turkey a pretext for intervention. The Assad regime has been driven back from the frontier and has been careful to present no threat to Turkey that would justify an attack, but Isil are attacking FSA forces supported by Turkey on the border itself.
“ISIS (Isil) along with other armed groups that have the potential to jeopardize Turkey's security will be included as threats to Turkey in the amended rules and the Turkish Armed Forces could launch an operation against ISIS once it approaches its borders,” the pro-Erdogan Sabah newspaper reported.
It remains unclear whether the threat to intervene militarily will be followed up by action.
The military are said to be unhappy to involve ground troops in an apparently endless and bitter civil war. They are said to be offering to join the international bombing campaign against Isil instead.
“It may be the government wants to do this but there are numerous institutional reservations,” said Sinan Ulgen, head of the Edam think-tank in Istanbul.
In particular, there is a question-mark over whether the intervention would be legal under Turkish law without a vote in parliament, or in international law without a United Nations security council resolution.
There would also be intense opposition to the operation being approved by the current prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, who is only still in place because of difficulties forming a coalition after his and Mr Erdogan’s party, the Islamist AKP, failed to win a majority in this month’s election.
It is strongly opposed by the main opposition party, the CHP, which blames Mr Erdogan for making the Syrian war worse by supporting Islamist rebel groups rather than using his influence to negotiate a peace settlement.
“There is not sufficient reason to send Turkish troops to Syria,” said Faruk Logoglu, who until the election was head of the CHP’s foreign affairs committee. “Once you do that there is no way out.”
