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  • The mid-term elections, especially for a two-term President in his 6th year, are bad news for his party, period.
  • Only about 40% of the electorate vote anyhow.
  • Obama can win a third term if that were possible today, but this is not a national election. It's about Gerrymandered Congressional seats and Dems in Red States – that’s why the odds are for the Repubs to get close to the 6-seat swing needed in the Senate
  • Two seats – Louisiana’s race and Georgia’s. Both have 3 candidates – Dem, Repub and TEA Party nut – and both mandate 50% and above or a run-off. We not know who controls the Senate until January (after the new Senate would have convened).
  • Obama has been making a push for Dems and particularly Blacks, who never turn out in mid-terms to vote as if voting for him. This is the wild-card in all te polling, and there are three close ones where if Blacks vote like they would for Obama the Dems can win. The Senate is still too close to call, even if all the pre-election polling put the Repub as barely taking control.
  • Who wins is meaningless. This is a do-nothing Congress and Obama has the veto pen.

  • The more meaningful elections are the Governors’ race and the State Legislators’ election.

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Embedded image permalink

Voting under way in US mid term elections. A decade or two ago, this picture might have looked different. The voters in the queue might have been just standing up, waiting their turn.

This picture shows 5 voters with heads bent engrossed with their mobile/smart phones.

FM

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