The AFC is sitting on 3 Indo seats and 2 Amerindian seats. That's a total of 5 seats that is "marginal" and competitive in this Elections. Those 5 seats is where this election will be won or lost.

The PPP only needs to pick up 1 of those 5 competitive seats.

I believe the PPP was FAIR to the Amerindians and did great work in almost every village so it is possible that people will VOTE for Progress rather than Race.

Nothing has suggested that these seats are marginal...

AMerindian vote will be crucial...Granger has been doing good work targeting them

It’s a Full House on Main St

Fair or not. The PPP can is perfectly positioned to bribe at least 1 more Amerindian seat to their column.

The paths to a PPP victory are many. The Coalition has to win 100% of 2011. That is an almost impossible task to pull off.

PPP is set to thief this election, that is their modus operandi about life in general.

This election will be the worst rigged election of all time.

PNC is basically stuck at its latest numbers; with a strong possibility of a decline.

AFC is loosing a significant part of its 2011 votes.

PPP/C will regain it votes to be above 50+ percent.

stuuuppps...talk some sense nah

YADA YADA YADA   Bottom feeders mentality!!!

you all is forgetting them Chinese vote their population in GY is the highest it has ever been, currently in GY   

In case you don't know this kind of excessively large voter list is not unusual within CARICOM.

Many American jurisdictions also have similar issues. Once a person is registered, it is almost impossible to purge them from the rolls without some official death certificate.

And yes, it is perfectly legal and proper for nonresident Guyanese to remain on the List.

so you saying that those who previously voted AFC will now switch to PPP...and no PPP voters switching

Why will voters who voted AFC switch to PPP?

http://www.kaieteurnewsonline....pp-cs-invincibility/

The Myth of the PPP-C’s invincibility

By Dominic Gaskin

Perhaps because of our strong ethnic voting patterns, the role of swing voters in Guyana does not feature much in the national discussion when it comes to politics and our elections. With the national demographics favouring one political party, our election results have been fairly predictable over the last two decades, to the point of discouraging any detailed analysis of electoral data. The fact that swing voters are more likely to be found outside of the ethnic support bases that sustain the two major parties has probably not helped to highlight their significance.

However, with a third party now a permanent feature on the political scene, swing voters could become the determining factor in who governs Guyana, going forward.

Swing voters are those electors who are not permanently stuck on any particular political party, and are therefore prepared to cast their votes in favour of the party that appeals to them the most (or disgusts them the least) whenever an election comes around. It is fairly easy to assess the impact of swing voters in recurring two-party elections. However, a three-party race adds a layer of complexity to the matter, presenting quite a challenge to the political analyst looking for a plausible perspective.

The existence of swing voters in Guyana is perhaps best demonstrated by a look at the results of the last three elections in Regions 4 and 10.

In the 2006 elections the amount of valid votes counted in Region 4 dropped by approximately 26,000 relative to the amount counted in 2001. In that election the PPP-C and the PNC experienced drops in actual votes of approximately 11,000 and 25,000 respectively compared to their 2001 results. The fact that the PPP-C’s percentage of the vote remained virtually unchanged while the PNC’s declined by nearly 8 percentage points, makes it logical to conclude that a significant amount of the 13,876 (9.5%) votes won in the region by the newly formed Alliance For Change came from voters who had voted for the PNC in 2001. While this indicates that voters were willing to break away from a party which they had previously supported at the polls, the results of the 2011 elections show that many within this group were just as willing to revert.

In that election, while the AFC and the PPP-C experienced declines of over 3,000 and 1,500 votes respectively, APNU recorded an increase of nearly 17,000 votes over the PNC’s 2006 vote count. The logical conclusion is that most of the votes lost by the AFC went to APNU and this would mean that in three elections some voters have moved from the PNC to the AFC and then back to the PNC (APNU). These are true swing voters whose votes cannot be taken for granted by any political party. The results in Region 10 are similar to those in Region 4, albeit on a smaller scale. There, however, the fluctuations in percentages of votes cast for the three parties are much more pronounced.

Were one to breakdown the results for the entire country, polling station by polling station, and compare them over the last three elections, the totality of those fluctuations would prove to be much greater than the net voter migrations reflected in the regional or national results. Allowances can be made for new voters and departed voters in order to estimate the size of our swing voter population. There’s got to be an app for that.

Some of our leading political pundits have dismissed the Alliance For Change as a fly-by-night party, incapable of winning an election in Guyana. In fact many of them had predicted that the AFC would have dwindled away after the 2006 elections. In doing so they have misread both the Guyanese public and the Alliance For Change itself, and are completely ignoring the numbers.

The tabling of the No-Confidence Motion in the National Assembly was not a publicity stunt. It was a move to address a serious national crisis, in which the Executive had grossly exceeded its authority over the public purse, and was continuing to spend monies in blatant defiance of the constitutional safeguards and the people’s representatives. The widespread public support for the No-Confidence Motion does not gel with the notion that the PPP-C Government can retain its plurality indefinitely, regardless of how lawless, corrupt, incompetent and abusive it has become. Yet some would have us believe precisely that.

In terms of actual numbers of voters, both the PPP-C and the PNC “maxed-out” their natural support base some time back, and their votes have declined by 43,000 and 25,000 respectively from 2001 to 2011. While this does not mean that these two parties cannot increase their electoral support, any increase would have to come from first-time voters or swing voters. The PPP-C lost major ground to the AFC in both Regions 5 and 6 at the last election and has done little, if anything at all, to alleviate the growing discontent in those Regions. It is unlikely to regain what it lost and there’s no good reason why it should receive more first-time voters than the other two parties at the next election.

The AFC, on the other hand, is still enjoying the advantage of its newness and is growing its support base nationwide. The party will enter its next election campaign in a much stronger position than it did in 2011 and will be targeting a plurality this time around. The fact that a third party election victory would be unprecedented in Guyana, and in fact is unusual anywhere in the world, is no excuse for political analysts to avoid a proper numerical analysis of past election results and to ignore evidence that a growing section of our electorate today has no allegiance to any particular party.

While there is no evidence pointing to an AFC victory in the next election, there has been a progressive decline in the actual number of persons voting for the PPP-C. In 2006, the party’s votes decreased in nine of Guyana’s ten regions. In 2011, this decrease continued in the same nine regions. The overall votes cast in favour of the PPP-C were 209,031, 183,887 and 166,340 in 2001, 2006 and 2011 respectively. Do any of our respected political gurus seriously believe that this slide would suddenly reverse itself in the next election? And if so, why?

The swing voters of Guyana will not view kindly the abusiveness that has characterized the PPP-C Government since they last voted. The new young voters on the list are not likely to confuse their situation with any rosy depictions presented by campaign slicksters. This is the reality that confronts the Government and this is why a motion of no-confidence is the last thing they need right now.

The myth of the PPP-C’s invincibility does not withstand even the most basic analysis of the available data. To suggest that a government with the track record of the PPP-C can look forward to being returned indefinitely insults the state of mind of our electorate. The PPP-C Government, by its own actions, has antagonized and alienated a very large section of our population, and is now ducking and hiding from a simple one-line motion that awaits the next sitting of the National Assembly.

The AFC was formed to bring about political change in Guyana and will pursue this objective in the firm belief that Guyana will only become a better place when its people begin to hold their governments accountable.

Pix – Dominic Gaskin

If the PPP loses 1 seat and gains 2 AFC seats, then that is still a net gain of 1 seat for the PPP which leave a PPP Majority Government by 1. And that is the conservative estimate.

Do you see any AFC Indian grassroots supporters cheering this Coalition in significant numbers?

Seems those who had switched to AFC came from APNU, why would they now go to PPP? They went back to APNU in 2011...

Most likely, they will stick to the coalition if you look at the numbers

AFC did not affect the PPP vote that much...they just picked up new voters and APNU voters...so my question still stands, where are the new votes for PPP coming from?

The basic issues are ...

1. AFC always stated that it is a political organisation independent of other political groups.

2. AFC has now merged fully with the PNC.

3. The influence of the AFC has diminished with the merger.

4. The election is between the PPP/C and the PNCR cum associates.

Here is sense a country with 750K voters and 575K eligible voters.

That is sense. Oh I forgot 166 Bottom house polling stations.

Like i said, AFC pulled in APNU plus new voters the last election...not PPP voters

Yes let's assume APNU holds 100% of its current 26 seats. This means that it has to gain 7 more seats to get to 33.

The AFC currently has 3 Indo seats, 2 Amerindian seats, and 2 Black/Mixed seats.

Let's give the Coalition all 26 APNU Seats + AFC's 2 Black/Mixed Seats + 2 AFC Amerindian Seats + 2 AFC Indo Seats. That only brings them to a maximum of 32.

The Coalition cannot afford to lose 1 of the AFC's 3 Indian seats. You tell me how that is possible without resorting to wishful thinking.

so why AFC made them call an election?

New young voters who were not eligible to vote lasst election..

Immaterial for the May, 2015 elections.

The mixed race vote largely overlooked will make a huge difference in this election along with the Amerindian vote.

WHy is it immaterial? Are you saying that the APNU supporters that went to AFC will now vote PPP? That is wishful thinking...

How many more? Like 30,000? More?

Are you saying that the APNU supporters that went to AFC will now vote PPP? <---> Nowhere is that statement made by me.

My main argument is that AFC supporters largely came from APNU. WHy would these supporters now go to PPP? 

If you tell me that PPP will increase their turnout, thus they will win, then maybe I can see that...but don't tell me that AFC supporters will now vote PPP

PPP will not attract new voters in large numbers

I THINK YOU ARE WRONG. MOST OF THEIR VOTERS WERE FROM CORENTYNE.

You mean all the Mixed and Amerindian people conceived in Guyana between November 1993 and April 30, 1997, a period of 3 years and 7 months who have now come of age, are registered, and are planning to cast a vote and are gonna cast that vote for the Coalition. How many people fit the description I just outlined there chap?

AFC has fully show that it is identical to the United Force.

PPP/C will indeed attract a much larger number of the general voting population to again form the government of Guyana.

bai...APNU lost the most votes the last election to AFC (look at the numbers posted above)...Corentyne stuck to PPP

maybe...maybe not

May 11, 2015 will be the decision day of the voters.

The Amerindian voters came out and voted against the PPP for the first time in significant numbers in 2011 enough to cause the PPP to lose region 8.

The slapping and beating up of Amerindians by the PPP government will have a sobering effect on Amerindians and the effects are being seen everywhere from that. That trend of Amerindians voting against the PPP will not recede it will increase and that is not going to be good for the PPP.

The mixed race voters are more motivated now than they ever were and their numbers were encouraging in 2011 but not significant. That is going to change in this election and they are not voting PPP.

Did you even bother to read my post before replying?

Address the post please with some facts. How many additional Mixed race voters do you think were born between November 1, 1993 and April 30th, 1997? How many millions?