Who’s in and who’s out in the first Republican debate

By Philip Bump, July 15 at 8:04 AM, Source

With new polls out Tuesday from CNN and the good people at the Washington Post (in partnership with ABC News), we've updated our widget to reflect what the stage would look like if the first debate were held today.

You'll remember that Fox News decided to manage the ever-ballooning Republican field by allowing only the 10 candidates performing the best in the five most recent national polls. (In the event of a tie for 10th, the tied candidates get to participate as well.) Given the importance of the first debate, that top-10 status has become a key test for candidates. So we made this tool.

The candidates that are in and out of the debate haven't changed since last week, but the order of the frontrunners has.

Now, not all of the people on the graphic above are actual candidates. If someone decides not to run, he will be removed from the graphic. And it's worth remembering that the Fox standard is subject to a wide array of critique, including margins of error, what polls count and so on.

That said, as Aug. 6 approaches (only two months from now, amazingly!), look for the people in the lower tier here to start making moves aimed at giving them a one percentage point jump in the polls. The difference between Rick Perry (in the debate) and John Kasich (not) is one point in two polls. It doesn't take too much of a splash to make that up.