1. The only results that count are the ones on election day.

2. There are always variations of projections during the election period.

3. Trump is gaining grounds in tradition Republican states.

4. However, in the overall projections, Hillary Clinton is firmly slated to win with a sizable majority.

The polls have indeed tighten, just as the Hillary campaign said all along - not that something will tighten, but that this election like most American Presidential elections, will be close.

Before the conventions her lead was not much. Then she got a big bounce after her Convention; and now after Labor Day it has tightened up.

Obama won twice because he young voters were the Obama millennials - not the Democratic Party millennials. It was not bequeathed to Hillary as Bernie Sanders showed. This is where the CARIBNY caution comes in - the changing demographics worked in the Democrats favor in the last rtwo cycles because of the love affair of the young Hispanics and Blacks for Obama. 

Hillary is still an institutional politician - the type that the electorate vanquished in 2008 and 2012. She has an uphill battle not only because she is the first female candidate - that in itself would be daunting - bt because her support is among older voters. Let's see if Barack, Michelle, Bernie and Elisabeth (Warren) will be able to cajole the young Blacks and Hispanics to turn out in the way they turned out for Obama.

Hillary's best weapon is Trump himself. He is so far off-track from the middle that his 40% ceiling does not look to be increased much more as November draws near. The millennial demographic is the one that's shading ot the 3rd candidate Gary Johnson and a little to the Lady running as the 4th candidate. Trump will get his 45% or so of the national votes and about 220 electoral college votes. Will Hillary claim the rest or will she be stuymied by Gary Johnson and thus bump Trump's electoral college vote closer to the magical 270?

As weak a campaigner as she is, it is still her election to lose. Credit Obama for most of that as the economy has seen its worst and the terror crisis may have passed its zenith.

Thanks for the informative post Kari.

Paging Baseman for his rebuttal.

Demerara_Guy posted:

 

4. However, in the overall projections, Hillary Clinton is firmly slated to win with a sizable majority.

Correction DG, It might become too close to call if the race keeps tightening. Hillary is a weak campaigner.

Oi yugi tell me something stupidy so I get on bad an spice up the board lil bit nuh man

yuji22 posted:

Demerara_Guy posted:

4. However, in the overall projections, Hillary Clinton is firmly slated to win with a sizable majority.

Correction DG, It might become too close to call if the race keeps tightening. Hillary is a weak campaigner.

1. Hillary Clinton may appear to some as a weak campaigner because she is focused on facts and realities of the issues.

2. Donald Trump waffles all over the place with no depth to what he is saying on the issues; plus behaving as if the audience are employees in his companies where his statements are unquestionable.

cain posted:

Oi yugi tell me something stupidy so I get on bad an spice up the board lil bit nuh man

OOPs wrong thread...wtf..yugi doin some sorta jumby wuk on my posts or what?