SUBJECT: OPPOSITION DRAWS BATTLE LINE: ELECTION PREVIEW #4
Classified By: Ambassador Roland W. Bullen
For reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
Action Request for WHA: See para 15
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Technical preparations for Guyana's
elections are proceeding reasonably well (ref A), but the
process is deadlocked for political reasons. The main
opposition party PNC/R, facing dim electoral prospects, is
working to obstruct and discredit the election process. The
PNC/R leadership is following a two-track strategy --
tentatively preparing for elections on the one hand but
maneuvering for postponed elections on the other. The Guyana
Elections Commission (GECOM) is now at an impasse over the
issue of how to verify the voter list. The PNC/R has stated
its demand clearly -- it will not go to elections unless
GECOM conducts a full house-to-house verification of the
entire list of 440,185 registered voters from 2001. Such an
exercise is as lengthy, costly, and unnecessary as it sounds.
Post and the rest of the international donor community
continue to actively encourage GECOM and the political
parties to communicate, resolve differences, and move ahead
with elections preparations. However, this message does not
appear to be getting through to elements determined to
disrupt the process. If the OAS wants to put early crisis
prevention in Guyana into practice, then the time has come.
--------------------------------------------- -----------
Opposition Leader Corbin Addresses Nation, Attacks GECOM
--------------------------------------------- -----------
¶2. (U) Robert Corbin, leader of the opposition PNC/R,
delivered an address to the nation on television February 14.
This address was little more than a personal attack on GECOM
for its purported lack of progress in addressing the PNC/R's
concerns about the electoral process -- principally that the
2001 voter list (2001 OLE) must be verified through a full
house-to-house verification exercise (see para 9).
¶3. (C) The level of personal animosity that Corbin and the
PNC/R are directing at GECOM and its embattled Chairman Dr.
Steve Surujbally is cause for great concern. Surujbally has
privately expressed fears for his personal safety. As the
political atmosphere becomes more volatile, the risk that
Surujbally will resign is increasing. His resignation would
likely bring the electoral process to a standstill.
---------------------------
PNC/R Acting in Desperation
---------------------------
¶4. (U) Corbin's address confirmed that the opposition would
prefer to make GECOM and the voter list scapegoats rather
than embark on a constructive political campaign. The PNC/R
appears to be acting in desperation -- much of the party
leadership is resigned to a poor election result and campaign
funding sources are drying up.
¶5. (C) In private conversations with Ambassador, persons
associated with the opposition have indicated that Corbin
believes the PNC/R will not win the election (Note: PNC/R
received 42% of votes in the 2001 election) and that the
PNC/R has failed to raise sufficient funds to run a
competitive campaign largely because of concerns about
Corbin's leadership. [b[ These interlocutors also warn (perhaps
disingenuously) that the PNC/R does not fully control
militant, armed elements that may resort to political
violence if the opposition's demands are not met. The recent
murder of Afro-Guyanese journalist/activist Ronald Waddell
and reports of weapons shipments into Guyana have raised the
tension level considerably (refs B and C).
-----------------------------------------
Calls for Postponing/Boycotting Elections
-----------------------------------------
¶6. (U) The PNC/R and some other opposition members see little
to gain from elections in 2006 and would welcome a delay.
They favor a period of shared governance between the PPP/C
government and the opposition. This view stems from the
Herdmanston accord that resolved the crisis after the 1997
election. The accord committed the government and the
opposition to undertake broad constitutional reform to move
beyond a winner-take-all, race-driven political system. This
process has stalled and some feel that elections should not
take place until these reforms are completed.
¶7. (U) For example, the African Cultural and Development
Association (ACDA) has taken this position. ACDA placed a
full-page advertisement in the January 18 Kaieteur News (one
of two daily independent newspapers). The ad listed ten
reasons why African Guyanese should not vote, such as another
election without shared governance "would commit future
generations of African people to powerlessness".[/b]
¶8. (U) There is no reason to even countenance the idea of
postponing elections. On a technical level, GECOM is well
placed to fulfill its mandate by August 4 -- to deliver an
election in which each eligible voter is able to register and
to vote only once. The Joint International Technical
Assessor (JITA) has confirmed that preparations are
proceeding satisfactorily. GECOM has developed a viable plan
for "cleaning up" the 2001 OLE that will form the basis for
the 2006 voter list. Polling day safeguards such as
indelible ink and voter lists with photographs will minimize
fraud.
------------------------------------
Dispute Over Voter List Verification
------------------------------------
¶9. (U) The opposition claims that the 2001 OLE is somehow
padded with tens of thousands of ineligible or fictitious
voters -- despite the fact that independent experts who
examined the list vouched that it meets international
standards. One frequently heard, baseless claim is that the
tens of thousands of Guyanese who have emigrated since 2001
need to be removed from the voter list. On the contrary,
article 59 of Guyana's constitution grants every Guyanese
citizen the right to vote regardless of where they live.
¶10. (U) The PNC/R is demanding full house-to-house
verification in order to legitimate the 2001 OLE -- an
unnecessary, time-consuming, expensive exercise. GECOM has
estimated this would take six months and cost USD 2 million,
meaning it could not be completed by the August 4
constitutional due date for elections. Moreover, no law
allows GECOM to remove registered voters who are not home
when the verifiers come to check. Real and perceived
elections shenanigans during the previous five decades
continue to fuel mutual distrust between the PNC/R and
governing PPP/C parties. However, a full house-to-house
verification would simply lead to further disputes.
--------------------------------------------- -------------
Supporting GECOM Process, But Election Still Guyana's Show
--------------------------------------------- -------------
¶11. (U) Donors have undertaken several initiatives to keep
the electoral process on track.
- Donors invited all political parties to the Canadian High
Commission February 3 in the wake of Waddell's murder to
condemn all forms of violence. Only the PNC/R refused to
come, on the grounds that the "conditions did not facilitate
a productive meeting", later specifying that the PNC/R could
not be in the same room as the PPP/C.
- Donors met with Surujbally February 10 to urge him to
improve GECOM's public relations effort with the political
parties and the general public.
- OAS A/SYG Albert Ramdin and Commonwealth Secretariat
Special Envoy to Guyana Sir Paul Reeves were both in
Georgetown the week of February 13 consulting with political
and civil society leaders. At a widely publicized symposium
they both made clear that elections must proceed as
constitutionally due and that boycotting the polls would be
terribly self-defeating.
¶12. (SBU) While actively supporting the electoral process,
the donors are determined not to allow GECOM, the GoG, or
opposition parties to drag the international community into a
situation where it is held accountable for the election
process. The message is clear -- Guyanese are responsible
for running this election.
--------------------------------------------- ---
Process Now Deadlocked, Crisis Prevention Needed
--------------------------------------------- ---
¶13. (U) Preparations for the 2006 elections have reached an
impasse over the issue of voter list verification. The
opposition PNC/R is adamant in its demand for full
house-to-house verification. The six commissioners on the
Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) are deadlocked. The
three who represent the opposition refuse to budge from this
demand.
¶14. (C) Donor missions (U.S., Canada, UK, EU, UNDP, IMF, IDB)
are in full agreement that the PNC/R must be approached soon
to resolve this verification impasse. The donors further
agree that Ramdin's concept of a "pre-election agreement" on
a post-election agenda would be an effective bargaining chip
(ref D). Agreement on a defined list of important political
issues to be addressed immediately following the elections,
with the international community as guarantor, would give the
opposition an incentive to participate constructively.
However, a pre-election agreement would require the
Government of Guyana's full support in order to work. It
would not be appropriate for the bilateral donors to initiate
these discussions.
¶15. (SBU) Action Request: Post requests WHA to urge OAS to
quickly approach the opposition parties and the Government of
Guyana in order to foster a dialogue on the concept of a
guaranteed pre-election agreement.
Classified By: Ambassador Roland W. Bullen
For reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
Action Request for WHA: See para 15
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Technical preparations for Guyana's
elections are proceeding reasonably well (ref A), but the
process is deadlocked for political reasons. The main
opposition party PNC/R, facing dim electoral prospects, is
working to obstruct and discredit the election process. The
PNC/R leadership is following a two-track strategy --
tentatively preparing for elections on the one hand but
maneuvering for postponed elections on the other. The Guyana
Elections Commission (GECOM) is now at an impasse over the
issue of how to verify the voter list. The PNC/R has stated
its demand clearly -- it will not go to elections unless
GECOM conducts a full house-to-house verification of the
entire list of 440,185 registered voters from 2001. Such an
exercise is as lengthy, costly, and unnecessary as it sounds.
Post and the rest of the international donor community
continue to actively encourage GECOM and the political
parties to communicate, resolve differences, and move ahead
with elections preparations. However, this message does not
appear to be getting through to elements determined to
disrupt the process. If the OAS wants to put early crisis
prevention in Guyana into practice, then the time has come.
--------------------------------------------- -----------
Opposition Leader Corbin Addresses Nation, Attacks GECOM
--------------------------------------------- -----------
¶2. (U) Robert Corbin, leader of the opposition PNC/R,
delivered an address to the nation on television February 14.
This address was little more than a personal attack on GECOM
for its purported lack of progress in addressing the PNC/R's
concerns about the electoral process -- principally that the
2001 voter list (2001 OLE) must be verified through a full
house-to-house verification exercise (see para 9).
¶3. (C) The level of personal animosity that Corbin and the
PNC/R are directing at GECOM and its embattled Chairman Dr.
Steve Surujbally is cause for great concern. Surujbally has
privately expressed fears for his personal safety. As the
political atmosphere becomes more volatile, the risk that
Surujbally will resign is increasing. His resignation would
likely bring the electoral process to a standstill.
---------------------------
PNC/R Acting in Desperation
---------------------------
¶4. (U) Corbin's address confirmed that the opposition would
prefer to make GECOM and the voter list scapegoats rather
than embark on a constructive political campaign. The PNC/R
appears to be acting in desperation -- much of the party
leadership is resigned to a poor election result and campaign
funding sources are drying up.
¶5. (C) In private conversations with Ambassador, persons
associated with the opposition have indicated that Corbin
believes the PNC/R will not win the election (Note: PNC/R
received 42% of votes in the 2001 election) and that the
PNC/R has failed to raise sufficient funds to run a
competitive campaign largely because of concerns about
Corbin's leadership. [b[ These interlocutors also warn (perhaps
disingenuously) that the PNC/R does not fully control
militant, armed elements that may resort to political
violence if the opposition's demands are not met. The recent
murder of Afro-Guyanese journalist/activist Ronald Waddell
and reports of weapons shipments into Guyana have raised the
tension level considerably (refs B and C).
-----------------------------------------
Calls for Postponing/Boycotting Elections
-----------------------------------------
¶6. (U) The PNC/R and some other opposition members see little
to gain from elections in 2006 and would welcome a delay.
They favor a period of shared governance between the PPP/C
government and the opposition. This view stems from the
Herdmanston accord that resolved the crisis after the 1997
election. The accord committed the government and the
opposition to undertake broad constitutional reform to move
beyond a winner-take-all, race-driven political system. This
process has stalled and some feel that elections should not
take place until these reforms are completed.
¶7. (U) For example, the African Cultural and Development
Association (ACDA) has taken this position. ACDA placed a
full-page advertisement in the January 18 Kaieteur News (one
of two daily independent newspapers). The ad listed ten
reasons why African Guyanese should not vote, such as another
election without shared governance "would commit future
generations of African people to powerlessness".[/b]
¶8. (U) There is no reason to even countenance the idea of
postponing elections. On a technical level, GECOM is well
placed to fulfill its mandate by August 4 -- to deliver an
election in which each eligible voter is able to register and
to vote only once. The Joint International Technical
Assessor (JITA) has confirmed that preparations are
proceeding satisfactorily. GECOM has developed a viable plan
for "cleaning up" the 2001 OLE that will form the basis for
the 2006 voter list. Polling day safeguards such as
indelible ink and voter lists with photographs will minimize
fraud.
------------------------------------
Dispute Over Voter List Verification
------------------------------------
¶9. (U) The opposition claims that the 2001 OLE is somehow
padded with tens of thousands of ineligible or fictitious
voters -- despite the fact that independent experts who
examined the list vouched that it meets international
standards. One frequently heard, baseless claim is that the
tens of thousands of Guyanese who have emigrated since 2001
need to be removed from the voter list. On the contrary,
article 59 of Guyana's constitution grants every Guyanese
citizen the right to vote regardless of where they live.
¶10. (U) The PNC/R is demanding full house-to-house
verification in order to legitimate the 2001 OLE -- an
unnecessary, time-consuming, expensive exercise. GECOM has
estimated this would take six months and cost USD 2 million,
meaning it could not be completed by the August 4
constitutional due date for elections. Moreover, no law
allows GECOM to remove registered voters who are not home
when the verifiers come to check. Real and perceived
elections shenanigans during the previous five decades
continue to fuel mutual distrust between the PNC/R and
governing PPP/C parties. However, a full house-to-house
verification would simply lead to further disputes.
--------------------------------------------- -------------
Supporting GECOM Process, But Election Still Guyana's Show
--------------------------------------------- -------------
¶11. (U) Donors have undertaken several initiatives to keep
the electoral process on track.
- Donors invited all political parties to the Canadian High
Commission February 3 in the wake of Waddell's murder to
condemn all forms of violence. Only the PNC/R refused to
come, on the grounds that the "conditions did not facilitate
a productive meeting", later specifying that the PNC/R could
not be in the same room as the PPP/C.
- Donors met with Surujbally February 10 to urge him to
improve GECOM's public relations effort with the political
parties and the general public.
- OAS A/SYG Albert Ramdin and Commonwealth Secretariat
Special Envoy to Guyana Sir Paul Reeves were both in
Georgetown the week of February 13 consulting with political
and civil society leaders. At a widely publicized symposium
they both made clear that elections must proceed as
constitutionally due and that boycotting the polls would be
terribly self-defeating.
¶12. (SBU) While actively supporting the electoral process,
the donors are determined not to allow GECOM, the GoG, or
opposition parties to drag the international community into a
situation where it is held accountable for the election
process. The message is clear -- Guyanese are responsible
for running this election.
--------------------------------------------- ---
Process Now Deadlocked, Crisis Prevention Needed
--------------------------------------------- ---
¶13. (U) Preparations for the 2006 elections have reached an
impasse over the issue of voter list verification. The
opposition PNC/R is adamant in its demand for full
house-to-house verification. The six commissioners on the
Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) are deadlocked. The
three who represent the opposition refuse to budge from this
demand.
¶14. (C) Donor missions (U.S., Canada, UK, EU, UNDP, IMF, IDB)
are in full agreement that the PNC/R must be approached soon
to resolve this verification impasse. The donors further
agree that Ramdin's concept of a "pre-election agreement" on
a post-election agenda would be an effective bargaining chip
(ref D). Agreement on a defined list of important political
issues to be addressed immediately following the elections,
with the international community as guarantor, would give the
opposition an incentive to participate constructively.
However, a pre-election agreement would require the
Government of Guyana's full support in order to work. It
would not be appropriate for the bilateral donors to initiate
these discussions.
¶15. (SBU) Action Request: Post requests WHA to urge OAS to
quickly approach the opposition parties and the Government of
Guyana in order to foster a dialogue on the concept of a
guaranteed pre-election agreement.
