WILD SPECULATION
July 14, 2014, By KNews, Filed Under Features/Columnists, Peeping Tom, Source
We have to be very cautious in our interpretation of the National Census numbers otherwise a great deal of misinformation and extreme speculation is going to result.
Statistically, what the 2012 census reveals is a marginal decline in Guyana’s population. The decline amounted to 3,339 or a 0.4 % change from 10 years prior.
This is not as bad as it may seem. Between 1991 and 2002, there was actually an increase of over 25,000 persons in the population, giving a positive population change of 3.8%. From this perspective, the decline in the recorded population between 2002 and 2012 may thus seem frightening. But let it be recalled that between 1980, and the census of 1991, there was an appreciable decline of around 36,000 persons, thus giving a negative 4.7% change in population. As such, the change in population between 2002 and 2012, while reversing the increase attained between 1991 and 2002, is actually significantly less than it was between 1981 and 1991.
We can argue a case that the number of births minus the number of deaths, which is called the natural increase in population, was positive and therefore the decline in population by 3,339 over a 10-year period can only be accounted for by a high degree of net migration (departures – arrivals). But that does not discount from the fact that there has been a marginal decline in population. We can say all we want about what it should have been had net migration been nil, but the fact is that the population is the population, not what it may have been.
In relation to the natural increase, that is the number of births minus the number of deaths, this has been declining since 1881. I cannot attest to just what is the natural increase since the 2002 census. At the time of the 2002 census, the data for births and deaths had a gap. They ended at 2000, which meant that statistical methods of adjustments would have had to have been made to account for the actual births and deaths between 2000 and 2002.
I am not sure as to the source of the data that has been provided by one analyst as to the net rate of births over deaths for the period 2002- to 2012. But a figure of 110,000 rather than 124,000 would perhaps be a better guesstimate considering that the natural rate has been declining since 1881.
The latest piece of analysis that has found its way into the public domain suggests that the PPP is in serious problems because the population of Region Six has declined by some 15,000 persons since 2002. This decline is being used to suggest that the number of voters in the PPP strongholds in Region Six is today less and therefore the PPP is likely to get lesser votes if elections are held today.
That analyst overlooks a number of issues. Firstly, the population of Region Six has been declining since 1980. In fact, it has declined by close to 40,000 since then, and that has never prevented the PPP from winning that Region.
Secondly, Regions are not homogenous and therefore the sort of generalizations that are being made about the numbers will inevitably lead to false inferences. Not because the PPP does well in Region Six and the Region has a decline in its population of 15,000 means that the PPP will lose 15,000 votes. In order to project just what the PPP will lose requires more demographic information about the population distribution by age and ethnicity within the Region. That information has not been provided in the census and therefore it is wild speculation to say that the PPP is in problems.
By the same logic, we could have well assumed that the PNCR is in problems. Take for example Region Four, the most populous Region. The population of Region Four has also been in decline. In fact the population of Region Four today, despite the housing boom, is less than it was in 1980. Region Four is also not a politically homogenous Region. Georgetown, where the PNC enjoys overwhelming support is in Region Four. And guess what, the population of Georgetown has declined by some 16,134 since the last census.
So if we use the same sort of sweeping generalization, we may draw the inference that the PNCR is in just as much problems as the PPP since their main support base has also seen a decline in population. But such inferences cannot be drawn unless there is more detailed breakdown of the demographics of the country and unfortunately this has not yet been provided and is not likely to be provided.
We therefore have to be very careful in the conclusions we draw from incomplete data sets. The inference that the PPP is in problems because of the decline cannot be said to be valid because there is no data available to make a strong case for this inference.
